Radar 20161213 16:00
I posted a wide shot of the current radar (16:00 Tuesday) to show the light snow. It is setting up in a NE to SW line. Most of this light snow should stay to northern and western areas. The whole line will slowly move to the east as the evening progresses. I still expect this to be just a dusting for our area. Areas further to the north and west could see a coating to 1″ of snow towards the Poconos.
Light snow approaching from the SW
If you have any outdoor chores to do today is the day. There is some very light snow or flurries approaching from the SW. Look for them to arrive late afternoon into the early evening. It shouldn’t amount to too much but some areas may receive a dusting.
Wednesday will be a transition day as the next front will move through later in the day and into the evening ushering in the coldest air of the season. More details on that tomorrow…
Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale
The storm from yesterday into this morning behaved pretty much as I expected. Stewartsville received about 2/10″ yesterday late afternoon and early evening and another 2/10″ overnight before changing to rain. I’ve seen reports of a few inches further to the north.
Roads were quite slippery late yesterday afternoon and early evening before crews could get to treat them.
Today will be the warmest day by far with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. So if you have anything outside to do, I recommend doing it today. There could be some snow showers late in the day or evening on Tuesday but the bulk of this should stay to our south.
Then the coldest air of the season arrives later Wednesday to make Thursday and Friday feel downright frigid. Temperatures those days will not not get out of the 20’s and overnight lows could fall into the single digits!
But don’t fret too much. It doesn’t look like this colder and colder pattern should continue. There are signs of a little moderation around the week before Christmas that could last until the new year. But that’s a way off so until then find your winter jacket!
Well it finally looks and feels like December! Here are some reasons this will NOT be a big snow producer for western New Jersey:
1. A warm front is approaching the area. This means once the front passes, we will get warm and the frozen precipitation will turn to rain eventually
2. The main storm system is going to go to our north and west, meaning we will be on the “warm” side of the storm
3. There is no cold high pressure to our north pumping in colder air
NWS expected snow fall
With the above in mind this is what will happen in western New Jersey. Periods of light snow will overspread the area this afternoon. This could start as early as mid day in some part of the area but most of that should stay to our west. We could see a coating on the ground from this.
Then there will be a break in the precipitation until the storm get closer to our area. The precipitation should resume mid to late evening and continue overnight.
I expect light snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain before eventually changing to plain rain by Monday morning. This transition will happen faster in southern and lower elevation areas. Areas further north and more elevated areas will see the transition take longer.
In southern warren county, central and southern hunterdon counties I expect a coating to 1″ of snow before changing over to mix then rain. North of that area up to and perhaps just a little bit further north of I-80 I can see 1-3″ of light snow. North of that has the potential for 3-6″ before the changeover.
There could be some light ice buildup during the changeover period so be aware of that.
The Monday morning commute will need some extra travel time so please allow for it.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather advisory starting at 1 pm today lasting into tomorrow.
An arctic cold front will cross western New Jersey later today and usher in the coldest air of the new cold season so far. High temperatures will not get out of the 30’s Friday through the weekend. It will be blustery with low wind chill readings. There’s even the possibility of a snow shower or two here and there.
The our attention turns to later in the day Sunday into Monday morning. A low pressure system will be arriving from the northwest. Depending on where it does we could have some wintry weather Sunday night into Monday morning. More details as we get closer.
Stay warm and make sure the holiday decorations are secured as we could get some wind gusts in the 30’s.
Look for sun to give way to increasing clouds on Tuesday in western New Jersey. Precipitation should arrive before the evening rush hour. I expect this system to be primarily a rain event along the I-78 corridor. Further to the north, there will be colder air and there could be some sleet and wet snow mixed in at the beginning of the storm.
The above snow forecast map from the Nation Weather Service, only has measurable snow around and north of I-80.
We need to keep an eye on how much cold air get drawn into this system. There are some computer models that are suggesting more wintry weather may happen for a little while further to the south, especially in the beginning. I’ll keep an eye on this tomorrow and will post updates as appropriate.
Winter appears to have one more show for us. Today’s gusty winds are bringing back colder more seasonable weather to western New Jersey. In fact it will be quite chilly tonight and tomorrow. Look for light snow to develop Thursday night and last into Friday. Initially temperatures will be cold enough for all snow but on Friday we will go above freezing so if it continues it should mix with some rain, especially in southern locations. Plus the March sun will go to work on surfaces and prevent any additional accumulation.
For western New Jersey I like the idea of a coating to an inch or two. This will mostly be on colder, grassy surfaces. I don’t anticipate any additional accumulation once sunup is reached on Friday.
For those ready for Spring, we should get a real nice preview of it next week!
Several location in western New Jersey including Stewartsville heard the thunder and saw the lightning late this morning. That was unexpected so early in the day! This is an indication how much potential energy is in the atmosphere today!
The Storm Prediction Center agrees and has issues a Tornado Watch just to our south.
This is in effect until 11 pm tonight. I would not be surprised if this was extended a little further north but we’ll see. If not I expect a severe thunderstorm watch further north.
What this means is there is strong potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds, lightning from late this afternoon until around midnight or so. The best chances for severe weather for western New Jersey appears to be from 5 pm – 9 pm.
I will post more information as it becomes available.
Western New Jersey received a trace of snow and sleet in the past 24 hours and about 1/3″ of rain.
even though Wednesday has started off raw and drizzling, it won’t finish that way. Warmer air will push into western New Jersey later today raising temperatures considerably.
Wwith this warmer weather will come chances for heavier rain and strong gusty winds.
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory (below) for western New Jersey for this afternoon and overnight. The first round of precipitation is arriving with the air, mostly aloft, cold enough for wintry weather.
I’m not expecting too much with this system, especially in southern areas, as the air temperature will be above freezing most of the time. Look for a slushy accumulation mostly on non paved and non treated surfaces. Slightly more could accumulate further to the north.
Later on Wednesday into early Thursday morning look for more important rain and windy conditions then colder as we go into the weekend.
WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 332 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE. * TIMING...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN IT WILL MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SOME SNOWFALL AND THEN SOME ICING. REMEMBER, BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST. * TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TODAY, DROPPING TO AROUND 32 DEGREES TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY RISING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES DURING WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE, POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE, OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER &&
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