If it’s not snowing where you are it will very soon. The front went through Stewartsville around 7:30 am and we had rain change over to sleet within 15 minutes. 15 minutes later, wet snow with temperatures falling into the low 30’s.
Everything remains on track with the storm and forecast. I’m expecting 3-6″ in our area. Snow should start to taper off in midafternoon but snow showers could remain into the evening.
Don’t forget the winds will be quite gusty. And change your clocks tonight!
Tonight and Sunday will be winter-like but don’t fear – warmer weather will return Monday and stay the entire week with temperatures in the 50’s and low 60’s!
Saturday will be another interesting weather day with lots of changes. Look for rain to arrive overnight. Then Saturday morning the rain will start to mix with sleet and snow and then changeover to all snow by mid to late morning. Then wet snow, heavy at times until mid to late afternoon. Expect about 3-6″ of wet snow. With rapidly falling temperatures on Saturday, we will see more snow accumulate on roadways than the other day.
The wind will be another factor along with the falling temperatures. Looks for strong SW winds in the morning shifting into the NW and gusting to 40+mph at times. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire area on Saturday into the overnight.
So, we had high temperatures in the 70’s on Sunday and Monday and snow is in the forecast for Wednesday? Why yes, it is. Welcome to March weather in NJ!
Wide swings of temperatures are common in Spring and Fall. This year will be no exception.
Wednesday will be a wet and raw day in comparison with the slightly humid weather of Monday. We could even see a coating of wet snow on colder surfaces. There could be upwards of 2″ up north in elevated normally colder locations.
After a chilly morning, Sunday will feature sunshine. We should see some increase in clouds later in the day with our next weather system approaching.
NWS snow forecast for Monday
The Monday morning commute should be fine but looks for snow to once again fall from the skies starting late morning. There is some good news here for folks that had enough of the cold and snow this winter. The first bit of good news is this should only last for 4 hours. The second bit of good news is that most if not all of the snow accumulation should be on colder surfaces (cars, garbage cans, tree branches, etc..) – roadways should be fine. Since this will be happening during the day and we are now in late February, the higher sun angle should help to keep most roadways only in need of some salt. Monday’s snow is the result of a cold front passing through and not from a storm.
The snow forecast graphic above shows a 1-3″ snow forecast for our area. As usual, there will be less to the south and more to the north. If every snowflake that fell accumulated, I agree with the above. However, I don’t think most of us will see that much.
7 Day forecast
After Monday, warmer weather closer to normal will prevail with Wednesday looking like the nicest day!
Stewartsville Thursday morning as snow starts falling again
Another snowfall for 2021. We should all be used to this at this point. So far only a tenth of an inch at 7 am with more on the way.
NWS Snow forecast
The heavier snow bands appear to be setting up south of our area in the central-west area of NJ. As a result the NWS has shifted their forecast area of snow for 6-8″ to those areas. That is represented in the graphic above.
There is still a chance of some sleet getting mixed in or perhaps changing over to later today and this evening.
Most of the heavier snow will fall today during the day. the snow should lighten up later today and overnight. We should still see some periods of light snow and snow showers Friday morning. At this time I don’t see too much additional resulting from that.
The National Weather Service Mt Holly Office has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our next winter storm from late Wednesday into Friday afternoon.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* WHAT – Heavy mixed precipitation possible Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 to 8 inches
* WHERE – Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania
Based on what I’m seeing at the moments I’m going with 4-8″ snow forecast. This could mix with or change to sleet at times, especially southern locations
Fog in Stewartsville Tuesday morning after overnight rain
Thankfully the ice threat never materialized in southern locations overnight. Much warmer air overtook the area as the storm system passed to our west and we were on the “warm” side of the storm.
When warmer air hits the cold snow pack, it common to make fog as is seen in many areas this morning
Ice? I did not see nay in Stewartsville area overnight as the temperature was just above freezing all night. Anyone get ice? If so please let me know in the comments
Overnight lows in northern NJ tuesday morning, Feb. 16, 2021
As shown on the above map, overnight low temperatures. I’m sure many of these were recorded just after midnight
Overnight rainfall in northern NJ, Feb. 16, 2021
And then there’s the rain. Many areas received at least 3/4″ of an inch and some more. This should put a nice dent in the snowpack. But don’t worry snow lovers – reinforcements are on the way!
NWS snow forecast for Thursday
Speaking of snow, our next parade of storms will arrive on Thursday. At this point this storm appears to be somewhat colder and snowier than the last storm. Look for snow to arrive Thursday morning and last a good part of the day. The snow looks to be plowable and be in the 4-8″ range – more to the north and less to the south.
Warmer air looks to arrive thursday night and change many areas (especially south) to a wintry mix of first sleet and then possibly freezing rain.
We’ll keep an eye on this and update accordingly.
Some good news? After this storm the atmosphere looks to “take a break” for a little while so expect some calmer and seasonable conditions. But remember: it’s still winter and still February!
In our rapid succession of snow threats, we have two more that will visit our area. For the most part, these will remain to the south of our area. But we may still get some accumulating snow.
The first one will arrive late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning. The second one will be almost 24 hours later.
Both of these will impact southern locations more than northern locations.
I’m expecting a coating to 2″ of snow with less to the north and more to the south.
Looking ahead, there’s another chance of wintry weather late Saturday night into SUnday morning. If this verifies, this will be the second Sunday morning in a row of wintry weather. Right now this looks relatively light but could feature some mixed precipitation.
A cold morning in Stewartsville, NJ this Monday morning with temperatures in the lower teens.
Monday morning low temperatures
There were some areas in the upper single digits to the north. Clear skies overnight along with fresh snow and light winds caused the cold Monday morning.
NWS snow forecast for Tuesday
Enjoy the cold sunshine on Monday becasue another fast moving system will impact our area before sun-up on Tuesday. This will be a similar event to last Friday where we picked up a coating to 2″. My forecast is for a coating to 3″. The coating will be in southern areas and the 3″ to the north. The graphic above from the NWS shows this potential nicely.
Thursday forecast
Then another day of sunshine on Wednesday before another larger system impacts our area starting very late Wednesday or early THursday morning. This system will be multiple waves of low pressure that will move along just to our south and last until Friday morning. These waves will result in more snow than Tuesday but it should not be terrible. Early thoughts are 2-4 or 3-6.
Sat-Sun forecast
Our parade of storms continues with another fast moving system late Saturday lasting into early Sunday morning.
Don’t put the snow shovel away yet as another system could impact our area in the timeframe of next Wednesday. Temperatures looks to remain well below normal throughout this timeframe.
Here we snow again in Stewartsville, Friday morning, February 5, 2021
Before we get to Sunday, we picked up a quick 1.1″ of snow this morning in Stewartsville. This is the result of a fast moving cold front that will be moving through the area today. The cold air will lag a bit behind the front as we could actually get back into the low 40’s today for high temperatures depending on how much sun makes it out today. The sunshine sure felt great yesterday!
The “Super Sunday” snow threat has been in and out of the forecast for several days now. It appears to be happening. My early thought on the fast moving storm are reflected in the graphic above my StormTeam4. At this time it appears that more snow will accumulate south and east with 1-3″ in most of our area.
This will NOT be like our last storm. This storm will be fast moving. Look for snow to arrive as early as pre-dawn on Sunday and perhaps be out of the area by kickoff time in the evening.
Looking longer term, there are other snow threats in the forecast. There’s even a good chance of artic air returning the second half of the week. You will start to hear about this in the news first impacting the central part of the US. Chicago will have many days of below zero temperatures!
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