12. March 2017 · Comments Off on Sunday Look At Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Unseasonably cold weather continues this weekend in western New Jersey. This will continue for most if not all of the week ahead.

Computer model forecasting continues to show a substantial snow storm for western New Jersey for very late Monday evening into most of Tuesday. The map above is a forecast from one of the many computer models meteorologists use as tools to forecast weather.

Tuesday storm will be composed of two factors, one storm that is now in the Pacific NW and the second a tropical low disturbance down in the gulf states. These two are predicted to interact with each other off the mid Atlantic coast up into the north east.

Of course everyone wants to know how much snow. In such a dynamic storm like this one will be almost always banding of precipitation sets up. If you are in a band for a considerable amount of time precipitation can be falling at extremely heavy rates. Meanwhile where there is no banding and only lighter precipitation is falling, it’s a much different story. You can see some examples of that in the map above. Looks at the dark blues in western New Jersey compared to the light blue in parts of eastern PA.

So in a storm that has bands of precipitation, depending on where the storm moves, also determines where the bands of precipitation set up.

Based on everything I’m seeing now I’m predicting that western New Jersey will receive 10-18″ from Tuesday’s storm. I dislike putting out such a wide range in amounts but at this time its the best call. The NWS map above agrees with this thinking and says 12-14″ is “likely” for western New Jersey.

Timing: snow doesn’t look to start in our area, at this time, until around midnight Monday night. It should be somewhat light at the beginning. But then will get heavier and steadier overnight and last into a good portion of Tuesday.

Our NWS has places western New Jersey under a Winter Storm Watch for this event. Further to the east in NE New Jersey, NYC and Long Island a Blizzard watch is in effect. So that tells us this storm will have gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

can things change before the storm? Absolutely. If and when they do I’ll post updates here or on the Facebook page.

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Snow Next Week · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

By now word is spreading on social media that we are having a big snowstorm next Tuesday. And it could very well happen. I just wanted to post something today with initial thoughts on the storm. Yes it can happen. Computer models have been showing this storm now for the last several days which is a good sign of consistency. Of course that doesn’t mean it will happen. It’s still 3-4 days out. The image above is an official forecast issued by the NWS.

One computer model forecast of Tuesday outcome

One computer model forecast of Tuesday outcome

I believe there will be a storm LATE on Monday night into most of Tuesday. The details just need to be worked out. Those details won’t be known until we have a better understanding of the exact track of the storm. If it follows the track and intensity shown on several computer models today, it will be a significant storm.

As is the case with these storms there are several possibilities: 1) go further out to sea 2) go further inland and give us more mix and rain 3) be weaker than forecast and so on and so on.

So at this point, keep the potential in your plans for next week that we might have a disruptive storm on Tuesday. I’ll post more on the storm over the weekend as time permits.

09. January 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday · Categories: winter · Tags: , ,
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
255 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS... MOST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...WITH ICE  ACCUMULATION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING... A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING TO  EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION   WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
  TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD  CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 BUT RISING SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY  NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&
05. December 2016 · Comments Off on More Rain and Snow For Tuesday · Categories: Fall, snow, winter · Tags: , , ,

stormtotalsnowweb

Look for sun to give way to increasing clouds on Tuesday in western New Jersey. Precipitation should arrive before the evening rush hour. I expect this system to be primarily a rain event along the I-78 corridor. Further to the north, there will be colder air and there could be some sleet and wet snow mixed in at the beginning of the storm.

The above snow forecast map from the Nation Weather Service, only has measurable snow around and north of I-80.

We need to keep an eye on how much cold air get drawn into this system. There are some computer models that are suggesting more wintry weather may happen for a little while further to the south, especially in the beginning. I’ll keep an eye on this tomorrow and will post updates as appropriate.

09. February 2016 · Comments Off on Updated Snow Forecast For Tuesday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (3)

The latest snowfall forecast map from the NWS is included above. I’m in agreement with their forecast for western New Jersey of 1-3″ with the higher numbers to the south and less to the north. A winter weather advisory is issued by the NWS for Hunterdon county.

Light snow fell overnight in portions of western New Jersey. Stewartsville received 0.3″. An area of light snow is now moving into western New Jersey. This will last for an hour or two and provide a coating of snow on colder surfaces.

The snow today will be on an off – it will not be snowing all day. There will be some breaks. During these breaks the temperature should go into the mid 30’s which should allow for what falls to start melting.

The biggest change for today’s forecast is the periods of snow look to continue into the evening hours and could last till near midnight. This is when we might pick up the most accumulating snow from the event. Once the sun sets and the temperature drops, whatever falls then will stick.

Updates as warranted and time permits.

08. February 2016 · Comments Off on Light Snow On the Way Tuesday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

StormTotalSnowWeb1

A light snowfall is in the forecast for Tuesday for western New Jersey. More snow will fall to our south. At this time I’m expecting 1-3″ for western New Jersey. I had the “pleasure” of driving through this storm early today in Ohio. It was more intense than I thought it would be. Within 1 10 minute drive the left lane was covered and visibility greatly reduced. One hour later the snow had let up considerable so it wasn’t a big event – just enough to slow things down a little

12. January 2016 · Comments Off on Coating of Snow Possible Today · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

Accuweather

Good morning western New Jersey. We are waking up to mostly cloudy and cold this Tuesday morning. Today will feature two minor rounds of snow today. The first will be primarily flurries that will be around mid day. There could be a brief break then another round later in the afternoon into the evening. The second round could be more in the snow shower or even a snow squall as the arctic front moves through. Both of these could leave a coating in some areas to a 1/2″ or 1″ in others. Higher amounts will be to the north and west.

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StormTotalSnowWeb1 (1)

NWS Snow fall expected

10. November 2015 · Comments Off on On and Off Rain for Tuesday · Categories: Fall, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

Radar20151110

Look for periods of rain on Tuesday. Right now we are in between two areas of rain. Steadier rain is to our east and moving away from us. An upper level disturbance is bringing slightly steadier rain to our west and that is heading in our direction. Look for that to arrive later this afternoon into the evening. Right now it looks like 1/4″ to 1/2″ of rain in general – some spots a little more.

 

11. August 2015 · Comments Off on Rainy, Humid Tuesday · Categories: Summer · Tags: , , ,

20150811-0824

Stewartsville NJ received 0.67″ of new rainfall as of 7 am this morning. As you can see in the radar above, we still have a few more heavier showers that will pass through western New Jersey this morning.

Then the next question is how much, if any additional rain will we receive this afternoon? It all depends on how much sunshine and how warm it gets. The early morning rain was cue largely to a warm front. If you haven’t stepped outside yet our friend humidity is back for a big visit. But a cold front will pass though later today and will probably result in some additonal showers.

10. March 2015 · Comments Off on Daily Outlook: Tuesday · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

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Everyone in western New Jersey enjoyed a beautiful day yesterday with high temperatures in and around 50! We also had quite a bit of snow melt. Stewartsville is down to 10” average on the ground.

Today we will see an increase in clouds with periods of rain arriving from 2-4 pm. Rain should end overnight. Look for 1/4 – 1/2” rain.

Wednesday looks to be even nicer than Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50’s!

image

Rest of the week looks good with some rain on Saturday.

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