Flood Watch
Flood watch remains in effect and has been extended thru Saturday. Western New Jersey should see a mostly dry day today during the day but some light rain should return this evening and overnight. Saturday will have on and off rain and Sunday will feature some showers and perhaps a thundershower as well.
342 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Delaware, northeast Maryland, most of New Jersey, and portions of southeast Pennsylvania. * Through Saturday afternoon * Periods of moderate to heavy rain will move into southern New Jersey and the Delmarva this morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will move into Delmarva late tonight through Saturday morning, then expand northward into southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey Saturday afternoon and night. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected over the next 72 hours with the highest totals occurring in Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. Locally higher amounts over 5 inches are possible in slow-moving thunderstorms. * A variety of flooding types are possible. Low-lying and poor drainage flooding will be the most common type of flooding to develop. Flash flooding will also be possible if thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same locations, especially in urban areas where rainfall runoff is maximized and where small creeks and streams respond quickly. Flash flooding occurs quicker than other types flooding due to the torrential rain thunderstorms can produce in a short amount of time. Several days of excessive runoff will eventually lead to a risk of flooding in larger streams and rivers though the extent of the flooding will depend on where the heaviest rain falls. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. If you live across the Passaic, Raritan, and Rancocas basins in New Jersey or the Neshaminy, Schuylkill, and Brandywine basins across Pennsylvania and Delaware, keep an eye on later river forecasts. These forecasts, as well as all of our hydrologic forecasts, can be accessed via our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
335 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Inland Sussex, Kent, and New Castle. In northeast Maryland, Caroline, Cecil, Kent MD, Queen Annes, and Talbot. In New Jersey, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery. * From Thursday evening through late Friday night * Periods of light to moderate rain will continue this afternoon through tomorrow. A brief break in the rain is expected early tomorrow evening before it once again intensifies and becomes more widespread tomorrow night. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are then expected to persist into at least Friday, possibly into the weekend. General rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected the next 72 hours with the highest totals along and south of the Interstate 78 corridor. Locally higher amounts are possible across the same area as thunderstorms are expected to periodically develop. * A variety of flooding types are all possible within the Flood Watch area. First, low-lying and poor drainage flooding is the most likely type of flooding to develop. Second, flash flooding will be possible under the stronger thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs quicker than other types flooding due to the torrential rain thunderstorms can produce in a short amount of time. Flash flooding is most likely to occur across urban areas where rainfall runoff is maximized and where small creeks and streams respond quickly. The rain has to go somewhere and eventually leads to larger streams and rivers. This is where the third type of flooding is possible. If you live across the Passaic, Raritan, and Rancocas basins in New Jersey or the Neshaminy, Schuylkill, and Brandywine basins across Pennsylvania and Delaware, keep an eye on later forecasts. These forecasts, as well as all of our hydrologic forecasts, can be accessed via our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
5 Day NWS forecast
After a wild Tuesday weather-wise, we are much calmer, cooler and wetter today. Many locations yesterday reported strong wind gusts (46 in Stewartsville), heavy rain (0.42″ in Stewartsville), hail (1/4″ report in Stewartsville) and more. There was even a tornado warning to our west in eastern PA. There were also other tornado warnings in the region. One was just confirmed in Putnam county.
Today’s showers will continue on and off. Tomorrow we should get a little bit of a break but there is a threat of more rain on Friday. There is some disagreement on how far north the rain will come on Friday. If it gets into western New Jersey, we will easily see an additional 1-2″ of rain. If it stays to our south, less.
Enhanced severe weather threat for this afternoon
It’s not very often that the Storms Prediction Center makes so many upgrades in such a short period of time. There is now a moderate (4 out of 5) chance of northern areas seeing severe weather this afternoon and an enhanced (3 out of 5) for everyone else.
SPC severe weather threat for later this afternoon
For northern sections of western New Jersey the threat for severe weather has increased to an enhanced risk as seen on the map above. The timing looks to be from 3 pm- 6 pm. The greatest impacts are heavy rain, win and hail.
SPC severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon
Lately we seem to be in a pattern of nice weather one day followed by severe weather the next. Same thing will happen today and tomorrow. As you can see in the above map, all of western New Jersey is in a slight risk of seeing some severe weather. The timing for this looks to be from 3 pm to evening time. The line of storm will be coming in from the NW and moving SE. And Tuesday will be even warmer and much more humid than today which will help fuel these storms.
Saturday’s storms missed most of western New Jersey and slide to our south. Let’s see if the same thing happens tomorrow. Regardless we should never let our guard down and keep a weather eye to the sky!
SPC severe weather threat for later on this afternoon
The severe weather threat has shifted further south and west for later on today. This takes most of western New Jersey out of the severe weather threat except for southern and western most sections. This is due to the warm front not making it as far north as originally anticipated. If you haven’t been outside yet this morning it’s not only wet but much cooler with temperatures around 50. It now looks like we will not get much higher than the 60’s today. In fact northern areas could struggle to get to 60.
Further to the south by Philly they will get to 80 with warm and muggy temperatures. This disparity in temperature will fuel the potential for severe weather closer to them later on today as seen in the above map.
After this morning’s rain passes, there could be a break in the rain with only showers at times until later this afternoon. There could even be some breaks in the overcast but mostly cloudy conditions are expected today.
NWS severe weather threat for Saturday afternoon
The National Weather service along with the Storms Prediction Center has increased the threat for severe weather Saturday afternoon. The timing looks to be mid to late afternoon into the early evening. The strongest potential is south-west of most of western New Jersey but everyone should stay vigilant and keep an eye to the sky tomorrow afternoon. My schedule tomorrow is extremely busy and I may not have ample time for updates.
SPC outlook for Saturday
Northern areas of western New Jersey did see some thunderstorms last night while other areas, mainly to the south, hardly saw anything. Stewartsville only picked up .03″ of rain as the storms stayed to the north.
Friday’s weather looks fabulous with sunshine, light winds and low humidity. Unfortunately the weather will change quickly and there will be showers arriving overnight into Saturday morning.
While Saturday doesn’t looks to be a washout, it will feature some showers and thundershower chances. Mother’s Day look more unsettled and cooler with highs in the 60’s
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