Western Jersey Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

Western Jersey Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

A cold morning in western New Jersey. Stewartsville was down to 10 and many locations further north in the single digits and some below zero! This is common after a storm with snow cover on the ground.

5 Day Weather Forecast

5 Day Weather Forecast

Today will be a mostly sunny day with a little breeze and temperatures in the low 30’s. Tomorrow will be even nicer with less wind and plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 30’s. After that the weekend warms up to the mid to upper 40’s. Next chance of precipitation is late Monday into Tuesday.

6-10 day temperature outlook

6-10 day temperature outlook

6-10 day precipitation outlook

6-10 day precipitation outlook

Looking longer range we get a relaxation of the cold and below normal temperatures we’ve seen for the past several weeks. Temperatures look to average above normal until the end of the month and perhaps further. Our storm track will go to our west which will keep us on the warmer side that will feature some rain at times. This pattern could continue into the first week or so of February before colder temperatures return in general. This does not mean everyday will be warm and we won’t see any colder outbreaks. When cold air does arrive it looks to be not as strong and only last a day or two.

 

Icy spots overnight

Icy spots overnight

756 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...Icy spots will develop on some side roads, untreated parking
lots and sidewalks overnight across New Jersey, Delaware, eastern
sections of Pennsylvania and Maryland...

Temperatures well below freezing will refreeze some of the
leftover moisture from Wednesday`s snowfall, causing slippery
spots on less traveled pavements and possibly freezing some car
doors shut. Be careful when stepping outside and traveling some of
the side roads or moving through the parking lots.

It will take a while for the sun to begin the melting process
late Thursday morning.
Last band of light snow moving thru western New Hersey as of 11:13 am

Last band of light snow moving thru western New Jersey as of 11:13 am

Once this moves through that should be it and conditions should start to improve. temperatures have dropped steadily this morning and Stewartsville is currently at 26.4 and falling. Winds have picked up to out of the NW gusting so far to 15 mph at 10:45.

Total snow in Stewartsville 3.8″

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018.

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018.

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018.

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018. Dave Dabour

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018.

Snow photos in Greenwich Twp NJ on January 17, 2018. Dave Dabour

The snow finally arrived and 3.5″ of snow was recorded in Stewartsville as of 7:30 am. Very light snow continues across western New Jersey as the bulk of the snow has already moved to our east.

Radar as of 7:53 am

Radar as of 7:53 am

Even though the radar above shows snow over us and to our west, it’s very light. The heavier snow has pushed east. Western New Jersey will see improving conditions as the morning progresses

NWS Radar 2:45 pm

NWS Radar 2:45 pm

The amount of the early morning snow into western New Jersey was more than I anticipated. I was expecting just some flurries during the day on Tuesday with the precipitation arriving later as per my blog post late yesterday. Stewartsville received 0.1″ of new snow which was just enough to impact the morning commute. More snow was received north and west into PA. The above radar show the snow, which is still on the light side, just outside of western New Jersey with some of it now falling in northern Warren and Sussex counties. This snow will begin to move, albeit slowly, to the south and east overnight.

NWS Snow forecast

NWS Snow forecast

Weather computer models today are suggesting the snow arrival time will be anywhere from 8 pm to midnight from NW to SE. They are also suggesting the snow could be heavier to the north, especially north of I-80 as seen in the above graphic. My forecast is still for 2-4″ in western New Jersey, especially southern and eastern areas with 4-8″ further to the north.

In southern and eastern locations its possible the snow may start off as or be mixed with rain for a while in the beginning. As you might have noticed it has gone above freezing in some locations of western New Jersey today. As of right now it’s 33 degrees in Stewartsville. Once nightfall occurs and the precipitation arrives that will be enough to cool down the atmosphere to change to all snow.

The NWS has issued a winter storm warning for Sussex county for the additional snow forecast.

Winter weather advisory for western NJ

Winter weather advisory for western NJ

Sussex-Warren-
Including the cities of Newton and Washington
338 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Northwestern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 8:00 AM this morning until 9:00 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light snow are expected today
  with only a light accumulation. Most of the accumulating snow
  will fall from late today into early Wednesday morning. The snow
  will create hazardous weather conditions, especially for
  tonight and Wednesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Winter Weather Advisory means that snow will cause travel
difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited
visibility, and use extra caution if driving. The latest road
conditions for your state can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Radar as of 8 am Tuesday morning

Radar as of 8 am Tuesday morning

Some light snow moved into western portions of western New Jersey this morning and coated the roads a couple of tenths of an inch. It doesn’t take much to make the roads slippery when they are cold.

In looking at the radar above the snow is light and there are some breaks. Right now the steadier snow is back in PA. Let’s see if this storm will be an over producer. Regardless most of the snow should come later today into the overnight.

One computer model suggesting steady snow does not move into western NJ until evening

One computer model suggesting steady snow does not move into western NJ until evening

Last post of this evening. Looking at some data that suggests only flurries or very light snow for western New Jersey tomorrow during the day with the steadier snow holding off until evening/overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday. Further to the west in PA they will see some light snow during the day.

If this verifies, it reduces the chance of schools closing early but might still result in any evening activities being cancelled and certainly a delay on Wednesday morning

NWS Snow Totals for Tuesday into Wednesday morning

NWS Snow Totals for Tuesday into Wednesday morning

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Computer model guidance has suggested a little more snow is going to fall from this system. The NWS is expecting 3-6″ of snow region wide.

Timing: While some light snow may start tomorrow morning, it should pick up in intensity Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday evening into the overnight is when most of the accumulations should take place. Snow should end early Wednesday morning.

My thoughts on amounts are now 2-4″ for most areas of western New Jersey with amounts closer to 6″ possible further north (mostly north of I-80)

Winter Weather Advisories in most of the region

Winter Weather Advisories in most of the region

Snow start times throughout the region

Snow start times throughout the region

IMPACTS: Tuesday evening commute and Wednesday morning commute

SCHOOL IMPACT: Possible early closings on Tuesday with no after school activities as well as delayed starts on Wednesday AM

 

 

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
313 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern New Jersey and east-central
  and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Tuesday and Tuesday night. While light snow or flurries
  will develop tonight causing slippery conditions on untreated
  pavement toward morning, the heaviest snowfall will occur after
  sunset Tuesday through Tuesday night. There may be some melting
  of the snow in the lower elevations during the middle of the day
  Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times, especially Tuesday night when snowfall rates may briefly
  approach an inch an hour. Plan for travel delays during the
  evening rush Tuesday. Temperatures following the snow should
  remain generally below freezing Wednesday with a hard freeze
  Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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