More Severe Thunderstorm Possible on Wednesday
With another warm up today and tomorrow comes the possibility of more severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued and slight risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow for all of western New Jersey. This is similar to what happened last Saturday. the timing right now looks from 3 pm – 8 pm. There could also be some showers in the morning tomorrow.
I’ll post updates as they develop
Severe thunderstorm watch until 9 pm for western New Jersey
This system has generated some tornado warnings – one is near Lancaster area…
Showers and thunderstorms approaching from the SW
As seen in the above radar, showers and thundershowers are approaching from PA. The cells are moving from SW to NE. There is a severe thunderstorm watch for Berks county in PA which is near Reading. There are two severe thunderstorm warnings indicated in the yellow above.
Keep an eye to the sky for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening
The Storms Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for today. The greatest risk appears to be from 3 – 6 pm from west to east.
These storms are the result of the unseasonably warm weather we have been experiencing over the past couple of days. Stewartsville reached 77 yesterday!
but all good things must come to an end. Sunday will be closer to normal with temperatures back to the 40’s with breezy conditions. Temperatures should rebound into the 50’s early next week.
A fast moving “clipper” storm system will be moving through the northern sections of western New Jersey later this evening into early Saturday morning. It has the potential to leave a coasting perhaps up to 1″ in the higher elevations of northern sections. This will primarily be north of I-80 event. But I’m mentioning it in case a few snow showers make their way further south. As you can see in the above map it will have a NW to SE flow to the light precipitation.
On Sunday another system approaches up but we will be warm enough for some light rain. It may end as a little wet snow on Sunday night but should amount to much for us. Boston on the other hand looks to get hit again from the Sunday system on Monday for them. Some Bostonian’s may be getting a 5 day weekend!
Long range we need to keep our eyes on Thursday and next weekend.
Snowfall map for western New Jersey February 9, 2017
In Stewartsville the final total was 6.4″
Here are some additional amounts:
...HUNTERDON COUNTY... RINGOES 7.0 1007 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA WHITEHOUSE STATION 6.0 1027 AM 2/09 METEOROLOGIST WHITEHOUSE 6.0 1048 AM 2/09 METEOROLOGIST READINGTON TWP 5.1 1130 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 4 NE RINGOES 5.0 122 PM 2/09 PUBLIC READINGTON 4.0 856 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER TEWKSBURY TWP 3.5 814 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST AMWELL TWP 3.0 740 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
...MORRIS COUNTY... BUTLER 9.0 1227 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER KINNELON 8.0 159 PM 2/09 PUBLIC GREEN POND 8.0 1021 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER JEFFERSON TWP 8.0 1036 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA MARCELLA 8.0 1155 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MORRISTOWN 7.0 201 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 E RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 1140 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA MORRIS PLAINS 6.4 115 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER CHATHAM BOROUGH 6.0 110 PM 2/09 EMERGENCY MNGR WHITE MEADOW LAKE 6.0 220 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ROCKAWAY 5.0 1018 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER CHATHAM 4.0 1138 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MNGR BOONTON 4.0 800 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER MOUNTAIN LAKES 3.5 830 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA
...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 8.8 1259 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ALLAMUCHY 8.8 1029 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HACKETTSTOWN 8.5 1120 AM 2/09 DEOS JOHNSONBURG 8.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BROADWAY 7.0 1129 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER OXFORD 6.5 840 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER STEWARTSVILLE 6.4 1137 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA PA
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY... 2 SSE TATAMY 7.0 1200 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER EASTON 7.0 950 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BANGOR 7.0 1034 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BUSHKILL TWP 6.1 925 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MARTINS CREEK 6.0 1030 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ACKERMANVILLE 6.0 957 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HELLERTOWN 5.5 141 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 4 S ACKERMANVILLE 5.0 809 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
The snow is just about ended in Stewartsville as of 9:45. 6.4″ was measured around 9:30 and I only expect a few tenths additional if any.
The light blue you still see on the radar to our west is very light snow or flurries. I’m hearing some reports of breaks in the clouds in eastern PA already so conditions should improve from this point forward.
What won’t improve too much today is the temperature and wind. I expect the temperature to level off a little but then start dropping again later today. So anything that does melt will refreeze tonight. Wind will pick up and be gusty out of the NW.
I’m pretty satisfied with my 4-8″ forecast!
Surprise, surprise it’s snowing out! 2.3″ was measured in Stewartsville as of 5:30 am. Moderate snow is falling as is the temperature, currently at 30.7 and falling.
Here is the radar as of 5:30 am. Notice the lighter amounts of snow near Reading. I didn’t expect to see it getting this light this early. I think we will only see the heaviest accumulating snow until 8 or 9 am. After that it will be lighter and not accumulate as much.
At this point I’m happy with my 4-8″ snow forecast for western New Jersey.
Radar shows snow approaching from western PA
The snow in the western third of PA will continue moving to the east and should arrive in western NJ by 1- 3 am.
Short range computer model forecast
As we move within 24 hours of an event, meteorologists change their focus to short range computer models. These tools are updated frequently instead of 6 or 12 hours but their forecast duration is 24 hours or less.
The above model shows western New Jersey will on track for a 4-8″ snow fall.
Move of the steadiest and heaviest snow should be done by mid day. This will be a fast moving storm. The peak period will be from about 5 am until 10 am.
Snow totals for Thursday
As expected the NWS has changed the Watch to a Warning that is in effect from midnight tonight until 4 pm Thursday. The brunt of the storm appears to be 4 am – 10 am.
The NWS is forecasting 6-10″ of snow. At this point I’m sticking with my 4-8″ forecast. Higher amounts are certainly possible if everything comes into place. Snow should start tapering off to snow showers around mid day Thursday which will allow crews to get out and clean up.
Here are the details in the Winter Storm Warning:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-090300- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2100Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 948 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY... * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. * LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New Jersey. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow. * VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times. * TIMING...A wintry mix will overspread the area from the west near midnight reaching the northern New Jersey coast by 4 am. The event will likely begin as snow north of the I-78 corridor. Elsewhere, rain will change over to snow from northwest to southeast into early Thursday morning. Sleet may mix in briefly during the transition from rain to snow. The snow likely will be heavy for a time Thursday morning before tapering off quickly from west to east during midday or the afternoon. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads potentially impassable for several hours during the worst part of the storm which should be 5 am to 10 am. There may be widespread power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. The threat for power outages will be less where temperatures are mostly below 30 degrees during the snow. * WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * TEMPERATURES...falling into the 20s over most of this area during the snow before a slight recovery in the afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight... food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Report snow and ice accumulation to the National Weather Service by calling our trained spotter line...posting to the NWS Mount Holly Facebook page...or using Twitter. Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter
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