NWS radar shows rain showers approaching

After a beautify and practically hot afternoon in February showers are approaching the area. These showers are preceding a cold front that will bring sharply colder weather on Thursday.

Surface map of the east coast

Western New Jersey is seeing plenty of fog this morning. This is due to the warmer air arriving on top of the snow covered ground. Once the sun comes out or the snow melts we will see much warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Today the 60’s may not show up until that happens but hopefully we will see 50’s by mid-day

5 day forecast

Early risers this morning saw a nice sunrise to the east. This week will feature warm unsettled weather. In fact it could be record breaking warmth on Wednesday. Every day this week will be above or normal of the upper 30’s.

The snow melted yesterday almost as fast as it fell on Saturday night. Stewartsville has 3″ left this morning. Today will feature clouds and some light rain shower so perhaps not as much will melt today. What doesn’t melt today will get knocked down on Tuesday with sunshine and high’s in the 60’s!

7.6″ snow in Stewartsville the morning on February 18, 2018

Other snow totals from around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
   4 N Clinton Twp.       9.3   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Lebanon                8.8  1116 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Califon                8.5   700 AM  2/18  Public
   3 SW Hampton           8.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 ESE Alpha            7.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Ringoes                6.5   956 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Glen Gardner           6.0   718 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 ENE High Bridge      6.0   640 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 WNW Cloverhill       6.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Flemington         5.6   802 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Readington Twp         4.8   642 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Flemington             4.7  1010 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Kingwood               4.7  1119 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   2 E Flemington         4.7   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Cloverhill         4.6   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Wertsville             4.3   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   3 SE Hardyston Twp     6.0   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Newton                 6.0   756 AM  2/18  Social Media
   Highland Lakes         5.3   630 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Stockholm              4.5   930 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   1 SE Sussex            3.9   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Sussex                 3.9  1113 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 N Wantage            3.2   917 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
   1 ENE Washington       9.3  1159 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Washington             8.3  1012 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Harmony Twp            8.0   836 PM  2/17  Social Media
   2 S Greenwich Twp      7.6  1047 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Stewartsville          7.6  1035 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Oxford                 7.5  1133 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Hackettstown           7.0   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Hope              6.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Allamuchy              6.3   629 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   2 E Blairstown Twp     6.1   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Blairstown             6.0   948 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Columbia          5.9   600 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Blairstown         5.8  1018 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Phillipsburg           5.7   828 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Belvidere              5.6   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Marksboro              5.5   837 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Columbia               5.5   857 PM  2/17  Social Media

Radar shows back edge of steady snow approaching

6.2″ of snow in Stewartsville as of 8 pm!

Radar above shows the back edge of the steady snow approaching western New Jersey and should reach here by 9pm or snow. Expect only lighter snow accumulations after 10 pm unless something changes.

The NWS has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to Winter Storm Warning. Rightfully snow as much more snow is falling that was predicted

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. The
  snow may fall at 1 to 2 inches per hour at times in parts of the
  region, resulting in rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

View out the window just before I got dark

I was amazed how fast the snow started coming down and how fast the temperature fell from the upper 30’s to around 32-33 degrees.

Radar as of 6:37 pm

Above is the radar showing all snow (blue) and plenty of it. The snow is moderate to heavy.

As of 6:30 pm 3″ of snow has already fallen in Stewartsville. I fear my forecast will bust on the low end. 3-6″ may have been a better forecast. The only hope for my forecast is the system is moving extremely fast. The heavy snow could be done by 10 pm!

Beautiful late winter afternoon

Temperatures are in the upper 30’s and winds are out of the SE. This along with the beautiful weather outside makes it hard to believe it could be snowing in 5 hours!

Some short range computer models are suggesting that some rain could be mixed in at the beginning of the storm due to the warm temperatures and winds. Once the sun goes down and it gets colder, combined with heavier precipitation rates, should enable all snow as the evening progresses.

NWS snow forecast

Sunny and cold Saturday morning will have increasing clouds as the day wears on. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s. Look for light snow to arrive as early as late afternoon and continue into the evening and night time hours.

My forecast remains at 2-4″ which is slightly lower than the NWS snow forecast pictured above. I think southern and eastern sections of western New Jersey will see some mixing of sleet and perhaps even rain at times especially towards the end of the storm. Temperatures will struggle to get to or below freezing tonight. This will result in a wet snow that will accumulate more on colder surfaces than treated surfaces. This will also be a very fast moving storm that could be done as early as just after midnight in western sections! There is a possibility I could be too low but I’m sticking with my gut for now.

 

902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-172300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.180217T2100Z-180218T0900Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe,
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Most of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Snow quickly overspreads the area from the southwest
  between around mid afternoon, becoming moderate to potentially
  heavy at times this evening. The snow should quickly by 4 AM.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times. The snow may fall at
  up to an inch per hour at times in parts of the region, which
  would result in rapid deteriorating road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The
latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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