Say It Ain’t Snow

31. March 2018 · Comments Off on Say It Ain’t Snow · Categories: snow, spring · Tags:

NWS snow forecast for early Monday morning

First off Happy Passover and Easter to all those that observe!

Will this be the year without a Spring? April is starting off where March left off. While today is a rather nice but still cool spring day, things will get cooler next week. A quick moving disturbance is set to visit western New Jersey in the late night and then early morning hours on Monday morning. I’m in agreement with the above map at this time for colder surfaces. Good news is most of this will be gone by afternoon and most of the kids are on Spring break so no school delays/closings.

Then more cool damp weather into next week. Yes Spring will arrive. Let’s just hope it arrives for more than a few days and we don’t go straight into Summer!

Monday Weather Outlook March 26, 2018

26. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Outlook March 26, 2018 · Categories: spring · Tags: , ,

5 Day weather forecast

After a chilly start Monday’s weather is recovering nicely with abundant sunshine and light winds. Today’s temperature will be in the upper 40’s. Tonight and Tomorrow will be similar to today but perhaps a degree or two cooler. Also look for increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon.

The we turn even milder for the remainder of the week. But with warmth brings showers. Good Friday looks to be the wettest day as of right now.

Looking longer range cooler temperatures look to continue into the first week of April. At least it only looks a little chilly.

Weekend Weather Outlook March 23, 2018

23. March 2018 · Comments Off on Weekend Weather Outlook March 23, 2018 · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:

5 day weather forecast

The March sun is very powerful and a lot of snow was melted yesterday! Look for that to continue but we may not have quite as much sun. IN fact there could be a shower or a snow shower at times this afternoon.

Tonight will be another chilly evening and Saturday should be a mostly sunny but cool day. Saturday night we may see another passing snow shower. Palm Sunday the sun returns but we remain on the cool side

Looking into next week we should start seeing 50 or better for high temperatures starting on Tuesday!

Spring Snow Storm Recap

22. March 2018 · Comments Off on Spring Snow Storm Recap · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

10.4″ snow recorded in Stewartsville

Another over producing storm. Snow lasted longer into the night than anticipated. Thankfully the winds stayed light (so far). Everything once again looks like a winter wonderland. But its Spring. I hear the term used that its really “Sprinter” and I think that fits well.

How much snow?

Besides Stewartsville let’s look around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
    Frenchtown            11.0  1100 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Flemington             9.7   500 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    White House Station    9.0   540 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Readington Twp         8.6   611 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Three Bridges          8.2   749 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Byram                  8.0   544 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Ringoes                5.0   600 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Readington             4.7   550 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Morris County...
    Netcong               12.0   600 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Green Pond            12.0   511 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Marcella              11.0   820 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Succasunna            10.0   225 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    Butler                 9.5   323 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Denville               9.3   330 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Budd Lake              8.8  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    N Jefferson Twp        7.0  1026 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Morris Twp             7.0  1153 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    2 E Randolph Twp       7.0  1100 PM  3/21  CoCoRaHS                
    Roxbury Twp            6.0   550 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Monroe                 5.5   654 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Jefferson Twp          5.0   542 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Parsippany             4.0   918 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Pleasantville          3.7   943 PM  3/21  Newspaper
...Warren County...
    Hackettstown          10.5   741 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Stewartsville         10.4  1030 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Allamuchy              8.5   633 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Oxford                 8.3  1115 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Hope                   6.5   632 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Northampton County...(PA)
    Williams Twp          14.5   131 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Hellertown            12.3   734 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Easton                12.1  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    North Catasauqua      11.8   130 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Upper Nazareth Twp    11.1   800 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Bath                  10.1   946 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Cherry Hill           10.0  1130 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Bushkill Twp           9.1  1155 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Martins Creek          7.0   823 PM  3/21  Social Media      

Look Ahead

5 Day NWS forecast

Thankfully no Nor’Easter #5 is in the 7 day forecast. But then again Spring warmth isn’t in the forecast either. There might be some rain or snow showers on Friday and Saturday night. Other than that continued cool but at least sunny at times and above freezing so the snow can start to melt.

Looking longer term some low 50’s look in the forecast for portions of next week. But for the true arrival of Spring we may have to wait until next month.

Storm Starting To Wind Down

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Storm Starting To Wind Down · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Radar loop Wednesday evening 7:15 pm

Today’s storm is slowly starting to wind down. Expect to receive a additional coating to 1 or 2″ between now and end of storm. Snow should end completely by late evening if not before. Don’t be surprised if it ends as some sleet or light rain. The temperature might warm up a little as the precipitation gets lighter

Wednesday Afternoon Update on Spring Snowstorm

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Afternoon Update on Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

6.2″ in Stewartsville as of 3 pm

Everything is on track for snow in most areas in western New Jersey. There has not been as much snow in far northern locations

NWS Snow Forecast

The updated NWS snow forecast above is more in line with my thinking.

Wednesday Morning Storm Update

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Snow falls on some spring bulbs in Stewartsville, NJ

Everything is still on track this Wednesday morning. Stewartsville has received 1.3″ of snow as of 7:30 am. Look for snow to fall at various rates today. During lighter periods of snow during mid day (if there are any) you might notice road conditions improving a little. Where these heavy snow bands setup will determine how gets the most snow.

My forecast of 4-8″ is still on track with more to the east. Some areas could locally receive more.

NWS Snow Forecast

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Winds will become gusty later today and tonight into Thursday morning.

Welcome to Spring 2018!

Welcome To Spring Snowstorm

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Welcome To Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Experimental Storm Severity Index

All of western New Jersey is in the bulls eye of the next (fourth) major storm in the month of March. Has kismet that it starts on the official start of Spring!

In looking at the potential severity of this storm in the above experimental graphic from the NWS, you can see most of western New Jersey is in the Major category.

Snow start timing

Here is a graphic showing the start time of the precipitation. Keep in mind that today, Tuesday the precipitation will be light compared to tomorrow. There’s also a good chance the precipitation today will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. As the second storm approaches on Wednesday is when we will see predominately snow.

NWS Snow Forecast

The above graphic does a nice job of showing how much snow for western New Jersey is forecast. Note that more snow is forecast to the south and east.

This will be once again one of those storms that features:

  • heavy wet snow
  • snow accumulating on colder surfaces more than roads
  • snow may not accumulate on roads during the day until heavy snow falls

Winds will also become gusty as Wednesday progresses. Power issues are possible from either the wind, wet snow or both.

Winter Storm Warnings Posted for Wednesday

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warnings Posted for Wednesday · Categories: snow · Tags: , , ,

Current Warnings

As expected, the Winter Storm Watch for our area has been upgraded to a Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Major Coastal Storm to Affect the Region Through Wednesday Night...

.A pair of low pressure systems today will consolidate into one major coastal storm late tonight and Wednesday. This is expected
to bring significant impacts to our region, starting with areas of mixed precipitation today and tonight followed by significant
snowfall on Wednesday. Unnecessary travel Wednesday afternoon and evening is strongly discouraged.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-210215-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0007.180320T2200Z-180322T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, and Trenton
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow   accumulations of 11 to 15 inches are expected. Snow may mix with
  sleet and freezing rain in central New Jersey. In addition,   north to northeast winds will gust 25 to 40 mph at times.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday. Sleet and   freezing rain are most likely this evening in central New Jersey
  before snow becomes the dominant type late tonight into   Wednesday. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east late
  Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to   impossible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Be   prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Power outages and tree damage may occur owing to the weight of   the snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018

19. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018 · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Storm severity index

The calendar may say first day of Spring is tomorrow, March 20th but it certainly won’t feel like it. Today will start off with blue skies but cold conditions. Clouds will increase later on.

NWS 5 day forecast

There will be periods of wet snow this week. The first will happen on Tuesday afternoon. This will be mostly to our south and be a minor event. The second event will warrant a closer eye. The second one will take place on Wednesday. But since most of that will be falling during the day in mid to late March, anything that does accumulate will only be on colder surfaces.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast. As you can see most of it is to our south and should be primarily on colder, non-paved surfaces.

The rest of the week looks chilly (normal high temperatures now should be 50) with another chance of precip on Saturday. I know many Easter related activities start on this coming weekend so hopefully it will be minor or at night and be wet and not white!

Looking long term the rest of the month looks to remain chilly. April should bring warmer temperatures. Let’s just hope we don’t go from winter to summer!

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