Beautiful late winter afternoon

Temperatures are in the upper 30’s and winds are out of the SE. This along with the beautiful weather outside makes it hard to believe it could be snowing in 5 hours!

Some short range computer models are suggesting that some rain could be mixed in at the beginning of the storm due to the warm temperatures and winds. Once the sun goes down and it gets colder, combined with heavier precipitation rates, should enable all snow as the evening progresses.

NWS snow forecast

Sunny and cold Saturday morning will have increasing clouds as the day wears on. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s. Look for light snow to arrive as early as late afternoon and continue into the evening and night time hours.

My forecast remains at 2-4″ which is slightly lower than the NWS snow forecast pictured above. I think southern and eastern sections of western New Jersey will see some mixing of sleet and perhaps even rain at times especially towards the end of the storm. Temperatures will struggle to get to or below freezing tonight. This will result in a wet snow that will accumulate more on colder surfaces than treated surfaces. This will also be a very fast moving storm that could be done as early as just after midnight in western sections! There is a possibility I could be too low but I’m sticking with my gut for now.

 

902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-172300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.180217T2100Z-180218T0900Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe,
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Most of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Snow quickly overspreads the area from the southwest
  between around mid afternoon, becoming moderate to potentially
  heavy at times this evening. The snow should quickly by 4 AM.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times. The snow may fall at
  up to an inch per hour at times in parts of the region, which
  would result in rapid deteriorating road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The
latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

NWS snow forecast for Saturday night

Computer models today have decreased and slightly shifted the snow axis to the east and south. Will continue to monitor to see if this is a trend or one off.

My forecast of 2-4″ still stands for overnight Saturday. Snow should start late afternoon/early evening and be over before sunrise Sunday. This will be a wet/heavy snow. Sunshine returns on Sunday with temperatures rising into the mid 40’s!

Winter Storm Watch still in effect for Saturday night. Look for this to go to either a warning or a Winter Weather advisory later today or early tomorrow morning.

NWS Severity Index

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Saturday night. The map above is experimental and shows the potential impact from the next storm. For western New Jersey it’s a moderate impact.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast map. At this time my snow forecast remains the same: 2-4.” I still believe the computer models are showing too much precipitation for this fast moving storm. Plus there will be warm air not too far away and someone will be seeing mixed precipitation. Furthermore since it will be relatively warm the snow ratio will be low, perhaps not even 10:1 in southern and eastern areas.

Look for the snow to begin late afternoon and early evening Saturday and be mostly over before sunrise Sunday.

351 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...The Lehigh Valley and Berks County, the southern Poconos
  and far northwestern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible. There remains
  some uncertainty with how much precipitation extends this far
  westward, however there is the potential for a short period of
  heavy snow Saturday night which could lead to a rapid
  deterioration in road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

AccuWeather forecast Saturday Night

Simply gorgeous outside now with temperatures in the low 60’s! Get outside if you can!

Accuweather snow forecast

I’ll continue to monitor this forecast and update accordingly.

NWS snow forecast for Saturday night

Confidence has increased that there will be some accumulating snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The big questions now is how much. There’s a good chance of warmer air not being too far from western New Jersey – especially eastern and southern locations so that will have to be watched.

Early forecast based on what I’m seeing right now is 2-4″

Until then today will be quite mild. If we can get some sun out today after this fog burns off, we can easily get high temperatures in the upper 50’s to near 60 or better.

Rain will return tonight and last into Friday morning. Friday will then be a transition day starting off near 50 but dropping temperatures as the day goes on. Friday night will be quite chilly as will Saturday by recent standards. The snow should hold off until Saturday evening as it looks now.

Storm threat late Saturday into Sunday

Keeping an eye on the potential for a sneaky fast moving snow threat for later Saturday into early Sunday morning. If the storm will be fast moving so if it does happen will not be the “big one.” It will be another nuisance snow if it happens. Saturday will be colder day compared to Friday – that is where the cold air will come from. If it does happen it should clear out for Sunday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this and keep you updated.

Radar shows some light snow flurries moving in from the west

As colder air filters into western New Jersey this morning, some areas could see some light snow flurries. I don’t expect much if anything. After this passes we should hopefully see more sunshine later today.

Tonight the colder air will make its impact with low temperatures in the mid to upper teens. Shrove Tuesday will be a typical winter day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s.

Radar 8:30 am Sunday morning

About 3/4″ of rain has fallen so far in western New Jersey with more on the way. As seen in the radar composite above, all that rain to our SW is moving in our direction. Look for an additional 1-1.5″ of rain today lasting most of the day. The steady rain will become more periodic as the day wears on.

Temperatures are about 40 this morning but warmer air is not that far away. It will slowly push a little further north today. If it makes it to the southern sections of western New Jersey, look for temperatures to jump to near 50! I don’t think it will make it all the way up north.

Flood watch continues for Warren and Hunterdon counties

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