28. February 2018 · Comments Off on Flood Watch · Categories: flood watch, spring · Tags:

Flood Watch

345 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
  including the following areas, in New Jersey, Camden, Coastal
  Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris,
  Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern
  Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania,
  Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton,
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, and Western Montgomery.

* From late Thursday night through late Friday night

* Rain is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and persists
  through all of Friday and maybe into Friday night. The heaviest
  rain is expected across the northern half of New Jersey and
  east-central Pennsylvania. This includes the Raritan and
  Passaic basins in New jersey and portions of the Delaware Basin.

* As the rain falls later on Thursday and into Friday, low-lying
  and poor drainage flooding is likely where the heaviest rain
  occurs. In addition, as this rainfall runs off into larger
  streams and rivers, flooding will also be possible Friday night
  into Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
28. February 2018 · Comments Off on Thursday into Friday Storm · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Storm overview for Thursday into Friday

NWS snow forecast

Total rainfall forecast

My thoughts are as follows:

  • Rain starts late afternoon Thursday and becomes heavy at times Thursday evening and overnight
  • Rain could end as wet snow, especially north and west and elevated locations
  • Winds will be gusty
  • Snow could accumulate from a coating to 2″ mainly on colder surfaces. The exception to this will be further to the north and west and any elevated locations
  • There will be 1-2″ of rain which will result in small stream flooding since we’ve had so much rain recently. There’s potential for larger rivers to get close too
  • Precipitation should become more showery on Friday afternoon and end by Friday evening. It will remain windy with seasonable temperatures (which will seem cold to everyone since it’s been so warm recently)

Potential snow forecast

There are a few wildcards in this forecast. The Euro model above is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for most southern location in western New Jersey and 4-10″ of snow further to the north. This will have to be watched to see if this happen since the last storm over-performed. Some of this will be falling during the day on Friday which will be harder to accumulate except on colder surfaces

27. February 2018 · Comments Off on Late Week Rain & Wind Potential · Categories: Flash Floods, spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Current river flood status

How much rain until flash flooding takes place

Forecast rain amounts

Possible storm location

Get outside and enjoy a nice weather day today! Wednesday will also be dry but will have more clouds. Then rain rolls in later Thursday into Friday. Keeping an eye on this storm and impacts to western New Jersey

26. February 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing Feb 26 · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

Another rainy weekend. Oh boy. Western New Jersey picked up over 1″ of rainfall. Let’s not hear any talk of a drought for a while 🙂

Once the morning clouds and fog burn off we should see some sunshine later and should have another above normal high temperature near 50. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very nice late February days as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 50’s.

Then our attention turns to increasing clouds on Thursday in what will be a rainy windy storm that will impact the area later Thursday through Friday. This will be near a full moon so some coastal flooding is also possible. This may end as a little wet snow in spots. Details as we get closer.

23. February 2018 · Comments Off on Mostly Cloudy, Damp Weekend · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

Well of course since the weekend is upon us that means cloudy damp weather. Perhaps we will see a little sun by Sunday afternoon. If not then the beginning of next week looks sunny and a little warmer!

Out greatest chance of steady rain will be later Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see up to an inch of rain in spots.

Some areas to the far north today are still fighting with some freezing rain and drizzle with temperatures around freezing. Watch out for slippery spots if heading north today or tonight!

21. February 2018 · Comments Off on Record Warm Wednesday; Showers Approaching · Categories: spring · Tags:

NWS radar shows rain showers approaching

After a beautify and practically hot afternoon in February showers are approaching the area. These showers are preceding a cold front that will bring sharply colder weather on Thursday.

20. February 2018 · Comments Off on Taste of Spring After Fog · Categories: spring · Tags: ,

Surface map of the east coast

Western New Jersey is seeing plenty of fog this morning. This is due to the warmer air arriving on top of the snow covered ground. Once the sun comes out or the snow melts we will see much warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Today the 60’s may not show up until that happens but hopefully we will see 50’s by mid-day

19. February 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

5 day forecast

Early risers this morning saw a nice sunrise to the east. This week will feature warm unsettled weather. In fact it could be record breaking warmth on Wednesday. Every day this week will be above or normal of the upper 30’s.

The snow melted yesterday almost as fast as it fell on Saturday night. Stewartsville has 3″ left this morning. Today will feature clouds and some light rain shower so perhaps not as much will melt today. What doesn’t melt today will get knocked down on Tuesday with sunshine and high’s in the 60’s!

18. February 2018 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Recap · Categories: snow · Tags:

7.6″ snow in Stewartsville the morning on February 18, 2018

Other snow totals from around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
   4 N Clinton Twp.       9.3   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Lebanon                8.8  1116 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Califon                8.5   700 AM  2/18  Public
   3 SW Hampton           8.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 ESE Alpha            7.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Ringoes                6.5   956 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Glen Gardner           6.0   718 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 ENE High Bridge      6.0   640 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 WNW Cloverhill       6.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Flemington         5.6   802 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Readington Twp         4.8   642 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Flemington             4.7  1010 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Kingwood               4.7  1119 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   2 E Flemington         4.7   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Cloverhill         4.6   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Wertsville             4.3   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   3 SE Hardyston Twp     6.0   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Newton                 6.0   756 AM  2/18  Social Media
   Highland Lakes         5.3   630 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Stockholm              4.5   930 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   1 SE Sussex            3.9   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Sussex                 3.9  1113 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 N Wantage            3.2   917 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
   1 ENE Washington       9.3  1159 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Washington             8.3  1012 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Harmony Twp            8.0   836 PM  2/17  Social Media
   2 S Greenwich Twp      7.6  1047 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Stewartsville          7.6  1035 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Oxford                 7.5  1133 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Hackettstown           7.0   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Hope              6.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Allamuchy              6.3   629 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   2 E Blairstown Twp     6.1   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Blairstown             6.0   948 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Columbia          5.9   600 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Blairstown         5.8  1018 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Phillipsburg           5.7   828 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Belvidere              5.6   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Marksboro              5.5   837 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Columbia               5.5   857 PM  2/17  Social Media
17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Starts To Taper Off West To East · Categories: snow · Tags:

Radar shows back edge of steady snow approaching

6.2″ of snow in Stewartsville as of 8 pm!

Radar above shows the back edge of the steady snow approaching western New Jersey and should reach here by 9pm or snow. Expect only lighter snow accumulations after 10 pm unless something changes.

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