Fall Arrives….. One week Late

28. September 2017 · Comments Off on Fall Arrives….. One week Late · Categories: Fall · Tags: , ,
7 Day forecast for western New Jersey

7 Day forecast for western New Jersey

The early fall heat wave is over! Much more seasonable and enjoyable weather is finally here. Or back if you remember the early part of the month! Some warmer and above normal weather looks to return around the middle of next week but ti doesn’t look to be as warm as what we just had – hopefully only mid 70’s for daytime highs.

8-14 day precipitation forecast

8-14 day precipitation forecast

8-14 day temperature forecast

8-14 day temperature forecast

In looking ahead to the first half of October for western Jersey, warm and dry trend of late looks to continue. My lawn is starting to show signs of dryness – first time this warm season!

HOpefully we will still have cool nights. Fall foliage likes warm days and cool nights to bring out the best and brightest colors!

Autumnal Equinox

22. September 2017 · Comments Off on Autumnal Equinox · Categories: Fall · Tags: , ,

Happy first day of fall 2017! While it may not feel like fall like outside it officially begins shortly after 4 pm today.

6-10 day temperature outlook

6-10 day temperature outlook

Warmer temperatures will continue well into most of next week as well. In fact we will unfortunately flirt with the 90 degree mark Sunday and Monday!

Fall foliage report

Fall foliage report

So now that it’s fall we need to start thinking about the beautiful colors of fall. There is some colors out there already.

Post tropical storm Jose is still out there but slowly weakening and should diminish without causing any issues. Hurricane Maria should stay off-shore the eastern US after devastating Puerto Rico and other nearby islands.

Cooler weather should hopefully return by October.

Hurricane Jose Stays Offshore; Dangerous Hurricane Maria Approaches Puerto Rico

19. September 2017 · Comments Off on Hurricane Jose Stays Offshore; Dangerous Hurricane Maria Approaches Puerto Rico · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,
Hurricane Jose forecast track

Hurricane Jose forecast track

 

With a Cat 1 hurricane sitting off the east coast you would think we would be a little more alarmed. Luckily Jose is behaving himself and transitioning to a nor’easter instead of a tropical system. Most of the impacts will be felt near the shore with rough surf and beach erosion.

 
Some light rain showers could move into portions of western New Jersey today, especially eastern sections. Above normal temperatures and humidity will continue for at least another week. We are 10 degrees above normal believe it or not!
 
Dangerous Cat 5 Hurricane Maria forecast track

Dangerous Cat 5 Hurricane Maria forecast track

 

Dangerous hurricane Maria is in the Caribbean. We will keep an eye on her after she passes over Puerto Rico. Current forecast is for her to gradually curve out to sea next week. She will continue to give us and the entire eastern seaboard rough surf conditions.

Tropical Troubles Continue

17. September 2017 · Comments Off on Tropical Troubles Continue · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: ,
Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Has the pleasure to enjoy a top 10 summer beach day yesterday afternoon on Long Beach Island. Light wind, warm temperatures and a gentle breeze (and low crowds) made for a really nice late summer visit.

Western New Jersey will see more clouds than sun today into the new week along with warm and humid conditions. A scattered shower can not be ruled out.

Overnight computer guidance shifted Hurricane Jose a little more to the west. If this verifies, we will see some rain and somewhat breezy conditions here on Tuesday. The potential damage at the jersey shore will be much greater with sustained multi-day beach erosion and tropical storm force winds.

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

Jose may actually be slow to leave and stay around until the end of the week at least. If he is slow to leave the cooler waters at our latitude should help to weaken the storm and shouldn’t be much more than a low pressure system at the end of its life-cycle.

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Maria is expected to form and strengthen rapidly and travel over the same areas impacted by Irma which is very unfortunate. She is forecast to become a major hurricane (cat 3) and travel up the east coast offshore to North Carolina area

No Way Jose!

15. September 2017 · Comments Off on No Way Jose! · Categories: Fall, Hurricane · Tags:

NHC Jose Forecast

Even though Jose is downgraded to a tropical storm, a little bit of strengthening is forecast to bring it back to a cat 1 hurricane in the days ahead. As you can see in the map above, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to ride up the east coast next week with the greatest threat to Cap Cod and New England.

What’s important here is the trend. The computer models have been trending further and further to the west with most of their runs. If this continues it could have more impact to the east coast.

At this point it doesn’t look like it will strengthen to a major hurricane but could cause issues none the less with beach erosion and flooding of low lying places. The american model had the storm much closer to coast!

Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather

04. September 2017 · Comments Off on Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,
SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Happy Labor Day 2017 everyone! Well more seasonable weather has finally made an return appearance. It seems so hot today but the reality is 80 for a high is normal! More of the same tomorrow with humidity too. We need to be on the lookout for the potential for severe weather later on Tuesday into the evening and early night. The SPC has put most of western new jersey in the slight risk category.

The severe weather is a strong cold front that will be passing into our area that will make us on the cool side again. Unfortunately this front is going to stall not that far away from us and keep the chance for rain showers into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. We look to dry out for Friday and Saturday at this point.

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

All eyes continue to keep an eye on major hurricane Irma. She has moved slightly south and west and now look to pose more of a threat to the islands and possibly northern Cuba as well. The US risk right now appears to be Florida.

Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook

03. September 2017 · Comments Off on Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,
Overnight rainfall

Overnight rainfall

We are waking up to a soggy Sunday morning this Labor Day weekend. In Stewartsville 1.03″ of new rain was recorded in the past 24 hours ending at 8 am. This rain is due in part from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey.

 
The rain should taper off to showers by mid day but I can see more showers and perhaps even a brief thundershower later this afternoon as an upper level low passes through the area. Monday’s weather looks much nicer and warmer!
 
The last of the kids returning to school on Tuesday will be greeted by warm weather and another chance of soggy weather on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

We are still keeping an eye on Irma. You are probably hearing some social media reports of landfall here and landfall there. NO ONE and NO COMPUTER model at this point knows exactly where the hurricane is going to go. All of these are just tools and some of them are better than others. At this point this far out I take them as a grain of salt. It’s important to watch them for trends and to see when they trend to the same solution. If the hurricane makes it to our area it will not be until next Sunday or more likely the following week.

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