8 pm Update: The rains have arrived! 1/2" and counting. Also - Flash flood watch has been extended until 2 am Monday. - DD SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 111 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA... CARBON...MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON. * UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING * LOCATIONS...A PORTION OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING THE POCONOS AS WELL AS FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. IF THESE TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCUR, POCKETS OF DANGEROUS STREET AND HIGHWAY FLOODING WOULD RESULT SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO A RAPID RISE OF WATER TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Well that didn’t take long. The lone cell that popped up about 30 minutes ago has intensified and starting to train. I can hear thunder in Stewartsville. I believe most will stay to my west and north but time will tell.
As you can see in the above map, Most of PA and a good part of western New Jersey have the potential for severe thunderstorms later today into the evening and tonight.
We are well below normal on rainfall as seen above. We need between 5-6″ of rain just to get us back to normal. Let’s just hope it all doesn’t come at once!
So how much rain can we get? Quite a bit if you believe the map above. These amounts are for the next 1-3 days total ending Wednesday morning. We are in the brightest red which is 3-4″ of rain.
This mornings three day precipitation total maps, shown above, for western New Jersey shows some much needed rain in the forecast. While no one wants to see rain on the weekend, this is much needed rain for our area. This rain will be the result of a slow moving cold front that will end the early summer warmth in May and bring us closer to reality for this time of year. Some showers and thundershowers could start as early as saturday afternoon. The most active part looks to be Saturday night into Sunday.
The severe thunderstorm watch previous in effect for today has been cancelled in NJ. Dryer more staple air has moved into the region and should not allow and *severe* thunderstorms to develop the rest of today.
There is a chance for some scattered shower especially to the east and south but most will not see any.
Tonight should actually be not too bad as dryer air moves into the region. We should expect a low in the upper 50’s. The real question is to turn off the A/C or not. Friday will be in the low to mid 80’s but not too humid but probably warm enough for the A/C. Same for Saturday but there could be some late day showers or thundershowers. Sunday right now looks to feature a good chance of shower – let’s hope so since it’s been so dry lately.
Let’s hope parts of western New Jersey will receive more rainfall today than yesterday. Stewartsville only received 0.04″ of much needed rain.
As you can see from the above map, the greatest threat will be to our north east. Some storms and showers may make their way into our area between now and 7 pm.
Well that didn’t take long. Severe thunderstorm watch up until 7 pm this evening. Thunderstorms appraoching Harrisburg right now. Some severe ones down by PA/MD border. Keep an eye to the sky!
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorm later this afternoon in to the evening as seen in the above map. The primary threat will be from heavy rainfall and winds. Let’s hope we all get some of the much needed rainfall. Hopefully not all at once! 🙂
| Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary | ||||||||
| Apr-15 | ||||||||
| DAY | MAX | MIN | MEAN | PRECIP | SNOW | SOG | COMMENTS | |
| 1 | 52.0 | 27.0 | 39.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 2 | 66.0 | 27.0 | 46.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 3 | 66.0 | 56.0 | 61.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 4 | 62.0 | 39.0 | 50.5 | 0.07 | ||||
| 5 | 63.0 | 32.0 | 47.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 6 | 73.0 | 33.0 | 53.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 7 | 64.0 | 45.0 | 54.5 | 0.24 | ||||
| 8 | 48.0 | 39.0 | 43.5 | 0.05 | ||||
| 9 | 44.0 | 38.0 | 41.0 | 0.03 | ||||
| 10 | 54.0 | 38.0 | 46.0 | 0.07 | ||||
| 11 | 60.0 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 12 | 69.0 | 32.0 | 50.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 13 | 75.0 | 40.0 | 57.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 14 | 66.0 | 50.0 | 58.0 | 0.03 | ||||
| 15 | 71.0 | 45.0 | 58.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 16 | 69.0 | 40.0 | 54.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 17 | 71.0 | 55.0 | 63.0 | 0.04 | ||||
| 18 | 80.0 | 46.0 | 63.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 19 | 67.0 | 43.0 | 55.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 20 | 64.0 | 45.0 | 54.5 | 0.75 | ||||
| 21 | 65.0 | 47.0 | 56.0 | 0.26 | ||||
| 22 | 68.0 | 40.0 | 54.0 | 0.04 | ||||
| 23 | 49.0 | 37.0 | 43.0 | 0.00 | T | wet snow showers! Freeze warning for night | ||
| 24 | 56.0 | 36.0 | 46.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 25 | 60.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 26 | 62.0 | 36.0 | 49.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 27 | 60.0 | 43.0 | 51.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 28 | 71.0 | 45.0 | 58.0 | 0.00 | ||||
| 29 | 77.0 | 46.0 | 61.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 30 | 68.0 | 43.0 | 55.5 | 0.00 | ||||
| 1.58 | T | |||||||
| Extreme High | 80.0 | Date: | 18-Apr | Season Snow Total: | 53.00 | |||
| Extreme Low | 27.0 | Date: | 4/1, 2 | |||||
| Mean Max: | 64.0 | |||||||
| Mean Low: | 40.4 | |||||||
| Mean: | 52.2 | |||||||
Fire Weather Warning
… Red flag warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for all of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania…
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a red flag warning for… which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* Affected area… eastern Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey, excluding the immediate coast.
* Winds… southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* Relative humidity… between 20 and 30 percent this afternoon.
* Impacts… any fires that develop during the afternoon will have the potential to spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
Precautionary/preparedness actions…
A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now… or will shortly due to a combination of strong winds… low relative humidity… and dry fuels. Any fires that develop may quickly get out of control and become difficult to contain.
For more information about wildfire danger… burn restrictions… and wildfire prevention and education… please visit your state forestry or environmental protection website.
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