If it’s not snowing where you are it will very soon. The front went through Stewartsville around 7:30 am and we had rain change over to sleet within 15 minutes. 15 minutes later, wet snow with temperatures falling into the low 30’s.
Everything remains on track with the storm and forecast. I’m expecting 3-6″ in our area. Snow should start to taper off in midafternoon but snow showers could remain into the evening.
Don’t forget the winds will be quite gusty. And change your clocks tonight!
Tonight and Sunday will be winter-like but don’t fear – warmer weather will return Monday and stay the entire week with temperatures in the 50’s and low 60’s!
Saturday will be another interesting weather day with lots of changes. Look for rain to arrive overnight. Then Saturday morning the rain will start to mix with sleet and snow and then changeover to all snow by mid to late morning. Then wet snow, heavy at times until mid to late afternoon. Expect about 3-6″ of wet snow. With rapidly falling temperatures on Saturday, we will see more snow accumulate on roadways than the other day.
The wind will be another factor along with the falling temperatures. Looks for strong SW winds in the morning shifting into the NW and gusting to 40+mph at times. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire area on Saturday into the overnight.
So, we had high temperatures in the 70’s on Sunday and Monday and snow is in the forecast for Wednesday? Why yes, it is. Welcome to March weather in NJ!
Wide swings of temperatures are common in Spring and Fall. This year will be no exception.
Wednesday will be a wet and raw day in comparison with the slightly humid weather of Monday. We could even see a coating of wet snow on colder surfaces. There could be upwards of 2″ up north in elevated normally colder locations.
In our rapid succession of snow threats, we have two more that will visit our area. For the most part, these will remain to the south of our area. But we may still get some accumulating snow.
The first one will arrive late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning. The second one will be almost 24 hours later.
Both of these will impact southern locations more than northern locations.
I’m expecting a coating to 2″ of snow with less to the north and more to the south.
Looking ahead, there’s another chance of wintry weather late Saturday night into SUnday morning. If this verifies, this will be the second Sunday morning in a row of wintry weather. Right now this looks relatively light but could feature some mixed precipitation.
A cold morning in Stewartsville, NJ this Monday morning with temperatures in the lower teens.
Monday morning low temperatures
There were some areas in the upper single digits to the north. Clear skies overnight along with fresh snow and light winds caused the cold Monday morning.
NWS snow forecast for Tuesday
Enjoy the cold sunshine on Monday becasue another fast moving system will impact our area before sun-up on Tuesday. This will be a similar event to last Friday where we picked up a coating to 2″. My forecast is for a coating to 3″. The coating will be in southern areas and the 3″ to the north. The graphic above from the NWS shows this potential nicely.
Thursday forecast
Then another day of sunshine on Wednesday before another larger system impacts our area starting very late Wednesday or early THursday morning. This system will be multiple waves of low pressure that will move along just to our south and last until Friday morning. These waves will result in more snow than Tuesday but it should not be terrible. Early thoughts are 2-4 or 3-6.
Sat-Sun forecast
Our parade of storms continues with another fast moving system late Saturday lasting into early Sunday morning.
Don’t put the snow shovel away yet as another system could impact our area in the timeframe of next Wednesday. Temperatures looks to remain well below normal throughout this timeframe.
Talk about an over-performing snow storm that just would not quit! I was surprised to no only see another 1/2″ of snow this morning from the overnight, be more snow flurries during the day today – the fourth day of snow!
The intense snow fall rates with ultra low visibility and duration of the snow is what I’ll remember most from this storm. 27.3″ fell in Stewartsville.
Snow Totals
Here is a list of snow totals from some nearby counties in NJ and PA:
...Hunterdon County...
Bethlehem Twp 24.0 in 0150 PM 02/02 Public
White House Station 20.9 in 1219 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Clinton Twp. 4 N 18.5 in 0800 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
2.5 S Cloverhill 18.0 in 0730 AM 02/03 COOP
Lebanon 17.2 in 0449 PM 02/02 Public
3 S Cloverhill 17.2 in 0800 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer
Lebanon 3.2 SW 17.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Flemington 16.8 in 0630 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Readington Twp 16.2 in 0700 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Clinton 1.6 ENE 16.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Frenchtown 0.5 N 15.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Flemington 2.3 E 15.4 in 0800 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
2 NNE Three Bridges 14.5 in 0700 AM 02/02 Public
3 W Stanton 14.4 in 0700 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer
Lebanon 2.8 N 14.0 in 0730 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Flemington 3 E 13.3 in 0811 AM 02/03 COOP
4 SE Sand Brook 10.0 in 0900 AM 02/02 Public
Sussex:
…Sussex County…
Montague 33.2 in 0709 AM 02/02 Public
Andover 32.0 in 1104 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Newton 0.3 W 32.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Stanhope 31.0 in 0200 PM 02/02 Public
Montague Twp 2.7 WNW 30.9 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Sparta 30.3 in 1000 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Sandyston Twp 30.0 in 0512 PM 02/02 Public
Sparta Twp 3.3 NW 29.6 in 0800 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Newton 0.9 S 29.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Sparta Twp 3.6 SSW 29.2 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Sussex 1.3 N 29.2 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Byram 28.0 in 1244 PM 02/02 Public
Hopatcong 27.3 in 1015 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
1 W Wantage Twp 27.0 in 0940 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Byram Twp 26.0 in 0626 AM 02/02 Public
Highland Lakes 1 SW 25.7 in 0600 AM 02/03 COOP
Andover Twp 1.7 W 25.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Hardyston Twp 24.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Vernon 24.0 in 0640 AM 02/02 Public
Stockholm 22.0 in 0739 AM 02/03 Trained Spotter
Hardyston Twp 3.2 SE 21.9 in 0800 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Vernon Twp 1.7 N 21.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS
Stockholm 20.0 in 0800 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Warren
...Warren County...
Blairstown Twp 2.2 ESE 32.1 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Oxford 32.0 in 1123 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 NW Hope 31.3 in 0211 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 SSE Harmony Twp 31.0 in 0652 PM 02/02 Public 1 SSW Harmony 30.0 in 0530 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Hackettstown 28.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Greenwich Twp 1.6 S 27.3 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Knowlton Twp 1.7 S 27.3 in 0810 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Phillipsburg 26.8 in 0230 PM 02/02 Public Riegelsville 26.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 COOP Stewartsville 26.3 in 0700 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 3 W Holland Twp 25.5 in 1000 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer Hope 24.0 in 1130 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Allamuchy-Panther Valley 23.0 in 0641 PM 02/01 Public Great Meadows 22.3 in 0600 PM 02/02 Public
Pennsylvania - Northampton
...Northampton County... Nazareth 36.1 in 0437 PM 02/02 Public Forks Twp 32.6 in 0309 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Bangor 30.5 in 0653 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Roseto 30.5 in 0529 PM 02/02 Public Lehigh Twp 30.0 in 0441 PM 02/02 Public North Catasauqua 29.1 in 0530 PM 02/02 Broadcast Media Bushkill Twp 28.9 in 0457 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Portland 2.7 WNW 28.3 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Hellertown 27.6 in 0445 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Martins Creek 27.4 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS 2 N Wilson 27.0 in 0832 PM 02/01 Public Easton 26.8 in 1020 AM 02/02 Public Bethlehem 25.0 in 1054 AM 02/02 Public 1 E Pen Argyl 23.8 in 0126 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Tatamy 23.0 in 0311 PM 02/02 Public Danielsville 22.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Plainfield Twp 22.0 in 1142 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Bath 21.3 in 0915 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Hanover Twp 21.1 in 0225 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Bethlehem 1.8 NW 21.0 in 0800 AM 02/03 COCORAHS 1 NW Riegelsville 21.0 in 0819 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Palmer Heights 17.6 in 0535 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Churchville 10.0 in 0513 PM 02/02 Public ...Philadelphia County... Fox Chase 10.0 in 0932 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Philadelphia 4.7 NE 10.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 COCORAHS Manayunk 9.0 in 1158 AM 02/02 1 NNE Stenton 9.0 in 0926 AM 02/02 Broadcast Media Philadelphia International A 8.1 in 0700 AM 02/03 ASOS Philadelphia 7.8 in 0108 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 SE Point Breeze 6.9 in 0357 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Everything is progressing as expected for the most part with the snow storm. The snow did start a little earlier than expected. We also only anticipated 4″ my sunup today and we are at 5.7.” That doesn’t necessarily mean we will get more snow than forecast.
NWS snow forecast
The NWS snow forecast is above. I’m in agreement with it but going slightly less with 10-16.” Why less? Several reasons: 1) sleet was no expected to make it as far north as my location yet it did. 2) sleet holds down snow accumulations 3) typically an earlier start to snow means and earlier end and 4) I could be wrong
Regardless snowfall rates will pick up today and be heavy at times. The wind will also increase and be quite gusty
After today’s cold and wind, there’s little doubt that the net round of interesting weather will be a storm early next week. This storm will feature accumulating snow and not be a fast mover.
There are still many factors that need to become better know before a more accurate forecast can be created. The earliest onset of the snow appears to be Sunday evening. Heavier snow will fall on Monday and perhaps into Monday overnight and Tuesday morning.
The European computer model is starting to show the storm moving further south. We need to keep an eye on this guidance to see if this becomes a trend. If it does it could mean less snow for our area. Other guidance suggests more snow for our area.
The above graphic is from the NWS and is only through Monday 7 pm. Based on what we know currently, I think this is a good range. It shows more to the south.
This can and probably will change several times between now and the event so check back for updates.
Updates in the past 24 hours reveal that Tuesday’s system will result in less snow for our area and more mix of sleet and even freezing rain at times.
Timing: Look for light snow to arrive early Tuesday morning. Some areas may not even see anything yet by sunrise Tuesday. Light snow will gradually overspread the area but then start mixing with sleet and freezing rain by lunchtime. This will happen first in southern locations but eventually spread north.
I’m revising my snow forecast to coating to 2″. The 2″ will be in northern locations.
We can also expect a coating of sleet and freezing rain from this system. The map above show how much ice accumulation we can expect.
Looking longer range, snow weather fans will be disappointed. The storm for Thursday appears to stay mostly to our south. The next system for Sunday into Monday may be another snow to mix or rain situation. More details on that as we get closer. For now keep the snow blower covered up…
Coating of snow overnight in Stewartsville February 28, 2019
A coating of snow fell overnight in Stewartsville and other surrounding areas in western New Jersey overnight and very early Thursday morning. Today should feature plenty of sunshine. It will be warmer than yesterday but still below normal with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 30’s.
NWS snow forecast for Friday morning
Overnight tonight and tomorrow morning will be almost an exact repeat as this morning. The only difference is today’s system was to our north. Tomorrow’s system will be to our south. So more snow will potentially accumulate to the south and little if any to the north. My forecast is for another coating to 1″.
Active weekend in store
Friday looks to remain mostly cloudy. Then another system will impact us Saturday. This looks to be mainly rain but it will start off of some snow in the morning. Then another break then we turn our attention to a potentially stronger storm Sunday night into Monday morning. This storm will have more moisture to work with. The big question will be precipitation type. Rain, snow, sleet or all of the above. At this point I’m thinking all of the above. If this storm stays on the colder side of us it could give us several inches of snow.
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