Details On Weekend Snowstorm

22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Details On Weekend Snowstorm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

 

 

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The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.

Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”

How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.

How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning

Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.

Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!

Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.

Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour

Wednesday Morning Update On Snow

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Update On Snow · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Good Wednesday morning in western New Jersey. Today will be not as cold and windy as the last two. High should be in the 30’s and the winds should be lighter. There will be an increase in clouds and we could see some flurries or snow showers overnight. Some areas could receive a coating – others nothing

Then our attention turns to the weekend snow storm. While the morning computer runs are being created an evaluated I wanted to share the following:

  • It now looks like the snow will not start until after midnight on Friday. So Friday day and evening should be fine. In fact there may only be a couple of inches of snow on the ground Saturday morning when you wake up
  • As you can see from the precipitation map above, the bulls eye for this storm is going to be to our southwest. But even with that being said we are still looking at the potential for a good amount of precipitation
  • One of the important computer models we use as a tool to forecast the weather, did return us to a snowy solution last night. As you may recall that model moved the heavy snow south of us but now has us in a moderate snow event.

Once all of the updated models are in and analyzed (mid afternoon) I will post an update. It’s possible at that time the NWS may issue some watches of their own and I may issue a French Toast Warning!

Flurries-Light Snow Moving Into Region

12. January 2016 · Comments Off on Flurries-Light Snow Moving Into Region · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

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First round of light snow is nearing the end in western New Jersey. There will be a lull in the activity as you can see in the radar above. The next area will be more likely to be snow squalls as this will be accompanied by the cold front.

Radar20160112-1404

Look for these flurries and snow showers to become more frequent as the afternoon wears on. Unfortunately the rush home might be the peak. These caused numerous accidents west of here in Indiana earlier today.

Sleet Summary

29. December 2015 · Comments Off on Sleet Summary · Categories: winter · Tags: , ,

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Many a backyard deck in western New Jersey probably looked like this early this morning. Sleet from last evening and overnight did accumulate on some colder surfaces. In extreme northern New Jersey there was some snow mixed in as well. Wantage reported 1.0″ and Rockaway reported 1/2″

Here are some additional reports:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 7
HOURS FOR THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...MORRIS COUNTY...
   MARCELLA               0.3  1210 AM 12/29  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GREEN POND             0.3  1130 PM 12/28  SLEET AND SNOW.

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
   WANTAGE                1.2   515 AM 12/29  SNOW AND SLEET.
   4 SW WANTAGE           0.6   450 AM 12/29  SNOW AND SLEET.

PENNSYLVANIA

...CARBON COUNTY...
   LEHIGHTON              1.1   535 AM 12/29  SNOW AND SLEET.

Temperatures are now above freezing in most of western New Jersey. rain will finish by mid day.

And here are some more. Stewartsville received 1/10″ of sleet:

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 11
hours for the weather system that has been affecting our region.
Appreciation is extended to Highway departments...cooperative
observers...Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This
summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location          storm total     time/date   comments                   
                     snowfall           of 
                     /inches/   measurement

New Jersey

...Burlington County...
   Burlington               T   245 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      

...Hunterdon County...
   Tewksbury TWP          0.9   726 am 12/29  1000 foot elevation     
   2 ENE Clinton          0.1   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   Flemington               T   356 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      

...Mercer County...
   Princeton                T   320 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      

...Middlesex County...
   Monroe TWP               T   319 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      

...Morris County...
   1 W Randolph TWP       0.5   713 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   NNW Rockaway           0.4   800 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   2 SW Randolph TWP      0.4   800 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   Green Pond             0.3  1130 PM 12/28  sleet and snow.         
   Marcella               0.3  1210 am 12/29  trained spotter         

...Somerset County...
   1 NNW Bernards TWP     0.2   730 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   1 ENE Bernards TWP     0.1   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                

...Sussex County...
   Wantage                1.2   515 am 12/29  snow and sleet.         
   2 SW Wantage TWP       0.8   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   3 WNW Montague TWP     0.8   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   4 SW Wantage           0.6   450 am 12/29  snow and sleet.         
   3 se Hardyston TWP     0.5   800 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   2 se Wantage TWP       0.5   610 am 12/29  cocorahs                

...Warren County...
   Delaware               0.5   800 am 12/29  social media            
   1 W Hackettstown       0.1   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                

Pennsylvania

...Berks County...
   Wyomissing               T   105 PM 12/28  social media            

...Bucks County...
   Doylestown               T   249 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      

...Carbon County...
   Lehighton              1.1   535 am 12/29  snow and sleet.         

...Lehigh County...
   Lehigh Valley Intl a     T   100 am 12/29  ASOS                    
   Heidelberg TWP           T   300 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      
   Vera Cruz                T   321 PM 12/28  trained spotter         

...Monroe County...
   5 W Stroudsburg        0.8   800 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   Mount Pocono           0.8   807 am 12/29  trained spotter         
   Canadensis             0.8   910 am 12/29  snow and sleet          
   Pocono Summit          0.6   910 am 12/29  snow and sleet          
   7 NE east stroudsbur   0.5   900 am 12/29  cocorahs                

...Northampton County...
   Bangor                 0.6   910 am 12/29  sleet                   
   Martins Creek          0.3   910 am 12/29  sleet                   
   E Martins Creek        0.2   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                

...Philadelphia County...
   Philadelphia             T   214 PM 12/28  rain and sleet mix      


***********************storm total ice***********************

Location          storm total     time/date   comments                   
                          ice           of 
                     /inches/   measurement

New Jersey

...Morris County...
   2 ESE Denville TWP    0.01   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                

...Sussex County...
   Sussex Airport        0.05   800 am 12/29  kfwn ASOS               
   2 SW Wantage TWP         T   700 am 12/29  cocorahs                
   High Point               T   705 PM 12/28  trained spotter         

Pennsylvania

...Monroe County...
   Pocono Mountains air  0.13   753 am 12/29  ASOS                    
   5 W Stroudsburg          T   800 am 12/29  cocorahs

Wintry weather overnight

28. December 2015 · Comments Off on Wintry weather overnight · Categories: winter · Tags: , , , ,

StormTotalSnowWeb1

The National Weather Service (NWS) has continued their winter weather advisory for tonight into early Tuesday morning. I’m expecting precipitation to break out over western New Jersey this evening from 7 pm – 10 pm. It could start out as a cold rain in some areas. Then the rain will cool the atmosphere a little more and the rain should mix if and possibly change to sleet for a few hours. Further to the north and west (near and north of I-80), especially in elevated areas, there could be some wet snow mixed in as well.

Warmer air will eventually take over and we should see all rain by the Tuesday morning commute. The changeover will take a bit longer further to the north and west. Given how warm the ground has been recently I expect little of any accumulation. At most there could be a little slush on colder surfaces like cars.

The most important thing to keep an eye on tonight is the air temperature. As long as we remain above freezing the roads and walkways should be fine. Bit some areas further to the north and west, as well as sheltered valleys, may have pockets of colder temperatures. In these areas we might see a little bit of freezing rain after the switch-over until the warmer temperatures make it to those areas as well.

I’ll have additional updates as warranted.

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday evening

27. December 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory for Monday evening · Categories: winter · Tags: , ,

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather advisory for Monday evening for western New Jersey (northers and western sections – currently does not include Hunterdon). I’ll post my thoughts on this tomorrow morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015


NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-280945-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.151229T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
323 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST NEW
  JERSEY NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1
  INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 7 PM AND
  11 PM MONDAY AND MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET AROUND
  MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN BETWEEN
  5 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES FOR A TIME
  MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING ABOVE FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK
  TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

Snow Foolin’

01. April 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Foolin’ · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,
Snow falls late on March 31, 2015

Snow falls late on March 31, 2015

In what continues to be an overproducing winter season in western New Jersey, yesterday evening’s changeover to wet snow over produced. Stewartsville received 0.8″ of wet snow (only on colder surfaces – roads were fine). Further to the north they received a little more. I heard reports up north of nearly 2″ and some secondary roads became snow covered.

7Day

Today will be a much nicer day but on the chilly side. We should have high temperatures in the upper 40’s with a good amount of sunshine. Thursday will be much warmer but also breezy. High temperatures look to climb into the low 60’s which will be welcome in the area. Showers will move into the area on Good Friday and continue into early Saturday morning. As of right now Easter Sunday looks like a cool start in the low 30’s.

Last Day of March Weather

31. March 2015 · Comments Off on Last Day of March Weather · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Early morning risers in western New Jersey are seeing a very nice morning with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s. Unfortunately this will not continue as clouds will arrive quickly and bring light rain by mid day or early afternoon. For elevations above 1000′ this will be wet snow.

 

 

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By late afternoon or early evening, and light rain falling could start mixing with snow even at the lower elevations. I expect little if any accumulations mostly on colder surfaces. The exception will be elevated areas above 750′ – they might see a coating to 1″ in spots.

 

 

 

 

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Wednesday will be sunny but on the cooler side with highs in the 40’s. Thursday and Friday will be mild days with highs in the 60’s. But showers will be on the increase starting Thursday evening continuing into Friday.

First Full Day of Spring Weather

21. March 2015 · Comments Off on First Full Day of Spring Weather · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Yesterday’s storm certainly over-performed as far as I’m concerned. While I knew more snow would fall that would accumulate, I didn’t expect the longevity of the intensity that resulted in more snow accumulating than I forecasted. Stewartsville received 4″ of wet snow. Here are some additional accumulations in the western New Jersey area:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   FRANKLIN               5.2   730 PM  3/20  COCORAHS
   STANTON                5.0   742 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.8   602 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON             4.5   839 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGWOOD               4.5   634 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   THREE BRIDGES          4.3   638 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON TWP         1.4   100 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER


...WARREN COUNTY...
   OXFORD                 4.3  1244 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.0   950 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ALLAMUCHY              3.6   737 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HACKETTSTOWN           3.5   630 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RIEGELSVILLE           3.0   733 AM  3/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BLAIRSTOWN             2.0   152 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA

…NORTHAMPTON COUNTY… WILLIAMS TWP 6.5 1209 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER FORKS TWP 6.0 728 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BETHLEHEM 5.5 559 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER EASTON 5.3 615 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA HELLERTOWN 5.2 1032 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER DANIELSVILLE 4.5 1031 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA BUSHKILL TWP 4.5 1232 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER NAZARETH 4.3 953 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BUSHKILL CENTER 4.0 630 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER MARTINS CREEK 3.8 515 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

Capture
Saturday will be the better of the two this weekend weather wise. Look for partly sunny skies with temperatures near 50. There will be a breeze which combined with the temperature and sun should help to melt most if not all that fell yesterday. There could be a brief rain shower this evening as colder air arrives in the region. Sunday will be sunny but cold for this time of year. Colder than normal will continue into the new week until a nice warm-up arrives on Wednesday, albeit with a chance of rain.

Mid Day Storm Update

20. March 2015 · Comments Off on Mid Day Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

Capture

Wet snow continues across western New Jersey on Friday afternoon, the first day of Spring. The back edge of the snow is now visible on radar near Harrisburg and moving in this direction. Furthermore in the last 15 minutes I’m starting to notice some gaps in the radar to our west so the steady snow should become more intermittent as the afternoon wears on.

 

Snow starts to stick to roads in western New Jersey on first day of Spring 2015

Snow starts to stick to roads in western New Jersey on first day of Spring 2015

As of noon, Stewartsville received 1.2″ of snow. At this point I suspect we will receive around the top end of my 1-3″ forecast.

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