Thursday Warm-up Followed By More Cold

25. March 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Warm-up Followed By More Cold · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

7 Day Forecast

Western New Jersey is experiencing some light rain showers this Wednesday afternoon. The goods news is these showers are the forerunner of some much milder air. This will really be demonstrated on Thursday with high temperatures in the low 60’s! But with warm air comes rain. Today we should only see light amounts and tomorrow about 1/2.”

Unfortunately the warm air will not last too long. A strong cold front will come through late Thursday into Friday morning and cool us down below normal once again. In fact Saturday looks quite chilly and raw with high temperatures in the upper 30’s with a breeze and scattered showers or flurries can’t be rules out.

Sunday Weather Discussion

22. March 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Weather Discussion · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast

Capture

Today in western New Jersey will be a nice sunny day, for February. But by late March standards it will be cold and breezy. Temperatures will probably not climb much out of the 30’s and there will be a breeze. Tonight we dip into the teens and rinse and repeat tomorrow. Tuesday shows a little improvement then warmer on Wednesday and Thursday but with a chance of showers.

First Full Day of Spring Weather

21. March 2015 · Comments Off on First Full Day of Spring Weather · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Yesterday’s storm certainly over-performed as far as I’m concerned. While I knew more snow would fall that would accumulate, I didn’t expect the longevity of the intensity that resulted in more snow accumulating than I forecasted. Stewartsville received 4″ of wet snow. Here are some additional accumulations in the western New Jersey area:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   FRANKLIN               5.2   730 PM  3/20  COCORAHS
   STANTON                5.0   742 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.8   602 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON             4.5   839 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGWOOD               4.5   634 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   THREE BRIDGES          4.3   638 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON TWP         1.4   100 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER


...WARREN COUNTY...
   OXFORD                 4.3  1244 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.0   950 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ALLAMUCHY              3.6   737 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HACKETTSTOWN           3.5   630 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RIEGELSVILLE           3.0   733 AM  3/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BLAIRSTOWN             2.0   152 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA

…NORTHAMPTON COUNTY… WILLIAMS TWP 6.5 1209 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER FORKS TWP 6.0 728 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BETHLEHEM 5.5 559 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER EASTON 5.3 615 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA HELLERTOWN 5.2 1032 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER DANIELSVILLE 4.5 1031 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA BUSHKILL TWP 4.5 1232 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER NAZARETH 4.3 953 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BUSHKILL CENTER 4.0 630 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER MARTINS CREEK 3.8 515 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

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Saturday will be the better of the two this weekend weather wise. Look for partly sunny skies with temperatures near 50. There will be a breeze which combined with the temperature and sun should help to melt most if not all that fell yesterday. There could be a brief rain shower this evening as colder air arrives in the region. Sunday will be sunny but cold for this time of year. Colder than normal will continue into the new week until a nice warm-up arrives on Wednesday, albeit with a chance of rain.

Mid Day Storm Update

20. March 2015 · Comments Off on Mid Day Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

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Wet snow continues across western New Jersey on Friday afternoon, the first day of Spring. The back edge of the snow is now visible on radar near Harrisburg and moving in this direction. Furthermore in the last 15 minutes I’m starting to notice some gaps in the radar to our west so the steady snow should become more intermittent as the afternoon wears on.

 

Snow starts to stick to roads in western New Jersey on first day of Spring 2015

Snow starts to stick to roads in western New Jersey on first day of Spring 2015

As of noon, Stewartsville received 1.2″ of snow. At this point I suspect we will receive around the top end of my 1-3″ forecast.

First Day of Spring With Snow

20. March 2015 · Comments Off on First Day of Spring With Snow · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Temperatures this morning are already above freezing slightly and we have an E-SE wind. When the snow arrives (very light snow just entered western New Jersey as of 9 am) the lower atmosphere will cool down slightly. But the March sun will penetrate the clouds and help to warm up paved surfaces.

As you can see in the above radar, precipitation initially will be very light and intermittent.

northeast

I wider view of radar show opening in the coverage in Southern PA but more moisture to the west.

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We are still under a winter weather advisory until 8 pm tonight. The NWS is still forecasting 4-6″ for our area. My forecast still stands at 1-3.” More snow will fall but not accumulate. More will accumulate at higher elevations (generally above 750 ft). Also if it continues to snow moderately beyond 4-5 pm that snow may start sticking on untreated surfaces as well. But the storm should start winding down in our area from 6-9 pm.

If you feel like it, go out to your local Rita’s for a free water ice today!! lol

If will feel more spring like tomorrow with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

First Day Of Spring Snow Forecast

19. March 2015 · Comments Off on First Day Of Spring Snow Forecast · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Western New Jersey woke up to another chilly morning with temperatures in the 20’s. Partly sunny skies today with highs just over 40. Clouds will increase tonight and snow will develop across the area between 6-10 am on Friday. Wet snow should continue at various rates throughout the day ending in the early evening from 6-10 pm. If this were 1-2 months ago I would be forecasting 3-6.”  But it’s not – it’s late March and in fact the first day of Spring. Can it snow in late March and early April? Sure can and it has in the past. Does the snow stick around? Nope.

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The National Weather Service has issues a winter weather advisory for tomorrow. The NWS is forecasting 3-6″ of snow as seen above. I believe most lower elevations of western New Jersey will only see 1-3″ on Friday and that will be mostly on colder surfaces like grass, car tops, untreated surfaces and shady areas. When the snow falls during the day it will only stick in the above areas. For it to stick during the day everywhere it has to be heavy snow. And we may in fact have a few heavier periods on Friday.

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We will be getting a good 1/2″ of liquid from this storm. Elevated areas (say above 750′) will see more snow in the order of 3-6″

If I see any significant changes I will update this post. I will be busy for the next few evenings so updates may be limited.

End Of Winter Weather Outlook

18. March 2015 · Comments Off on End Of Winter Weather Outlook · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,
NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

Western New Jersey did have a nice afternoon yesterday even thought it was quite windy. Stewartsville recorded a gust to 38 MPH. All locations dipped into the mid 20’s this morning and today we will struggle and most likely stay in the upper 30’s to near 40. Tonight will be another chilly night but the winds should let up. Thursday will be a nice sunny day for the last full day of Winter but we will remain below normal temperature wise with highs only in the low 40’s.

Then our next weather maker approaches on Friday. Any wet snow that does fall in the early morning or at night has the potential to accumulate on colder untreated surfaces. However any snow that falls during the day will most likely melt unless in the shade or the intensity is very heavy. The NWS on the above map is forecasting 2-4″ for western New Jersey at this time. I’m going to go lower for now with 1-3″. Most of this will be on colder surfaces. If this were 1-2 months ago this would be another 3-6″ snowfall for us.

7day

The Saturday bounces back nicely with partly sunny skies and temperatures near 50.

Windy And Turning Colder

17. March 2015 · Comments Off on Windy And Turning Colder · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

Surface

Now that the cold front has passed through Western New Jersey, temperatures will start to tumble this afternoon as the winds increase. So far I recorded a high wind gust of 33. I’m sure there are higher readings in open elevated areas.

7day

Tonight and tomorrow will make us remember that the season is still Winter. We will have overnight lows in the mid 20’s with breezy conditions. Tomorrow will continue on that same note with highs in the mid perhaps upper 30’s. This is over 10 degrees below normal. Another cold night Wednesday night but the winds should let up by Thursday morning. Thursday will feature sunny skies and a little warmer in the mid 40’s.

Then our attention turns to Friday. A storm will approach the east coast south of us. The worse of the storm looks to stay to our south but its looking more and more like this storm will impact us. We may be cold enough for snow in the beginning of the storm on Friday. But now that it’s mid March and the snow will be falling during the day, I do not anticipate any accumulations at this time. Later in the day it may warm up enough to change to rain.

As it looks now we should remain below normal temperature wise through the end of the month so even though Spring is near, it’s not here yet temperature wise…

51 Days Of Snow Cover In 2015

16. March 2015 · Comments Off on 51 Days Of Snow Cover In 2015 · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , , ,
51 Days of snow cover in Stewartsville NJ in 2015

51 Days of snow cover in Stewartsville NJ in 2015

Today was the first time in 51 days that I’m only recording a trace of snow on the ground. Yes there’s still snow on the ground as you can see but when 50% or more of the ground is exposed, you record a trace. For the winter of 2014-2015 we have 51 consecutive days of 1″ or great of snow cover on the ground. That’s pretty impressive!

Western New Jersey 7 day forecast

Western New Jersey 7 day forecast

Monday is not too bad outside today. We should have high temperatures in the low 50’s. If it were not for the clouds we would get even warmer. These clouds will continue to increase and give us some scattered showers tonight into Tuesday. It shouldn’t be too much rain. The showers will come to an end on Tuesday as a cold front passes through western New Jersey area. After the front passes our temperatures will start falling the rest of the day as we experience some below normal temperatures for a few days. Wednesday we will stay in the 30’s for highs – that’s 10 degrees below normal! Thursday will improve but still be on the chilly side. Then we turn our attention to end of week. A storm system will be passing to our south and may come up the coast. If it does there could be some rain or wet snow Friday into Saturday. Details as we get closer.

Not So Springlike Sunday

15. March 2015 · Comments Off on Not So Springlike Sunday · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

7day

 

Western New Jersey received about 1/2″ of rain since this time Saturday morning. Combined with the Friday night rainfall give us between 3/4″ and 1″ of ran. Thank goodness it didn’t all come at once!

Today we will see temperature in the mid to upper 40’s which is seasonable for this time of year. Unfortunately it will be accompanied by winds that will make it feel much cooler today.

Monday will be a nice day with high temperatures in the mid 50’s. But then a cold front will approach the area on Tuesday and bring below normal temperatures on Wednesday.

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