Winter Storm Warnings Posted for Wednesday

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warnings Posted for Wednesday · Categories: snow · Tags: , , ,

Current Warnings

As expected, the Winter Storm Watch for our area has been upgraded to a Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Major Coastal Storm to Affect the Region Through Wednesday Night...

.A pair of low pressure systems today will consolidate into one major coastal storm late tonight and Wednesday. This is expected
to bring significant impacts to our region, starting with areas of mixed precipitation today and tonight followed by significant
snowfall on Wednesday. Unnecessary travel Wednesday afternoon and evening is strongly discouraged.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-210215-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0007.180320T2200Z-180322T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, and Trenton
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow   accumulations of 11 to 15 inches are expected. Snow may mix with
  sleet and freezing rain in central New Jersey. In addition,   north to northeast winds will gust 25 to 40 mph at times.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday. Sleet and   freezing rain are most likely this evening in central New Jersey
  before snow becomes the dominant type late tonight into   Wednesday. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east late
  Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to   impossible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Be   prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Power outages and tree damage may occur owing to the weight of   the snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018

19. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018 · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Storm severity index

The calendar may say first day of Spring is tomorrow, March 20th but it certainly won’t feel like it. Today will start off with blue skies but cold conditions. Clouds will increase later on.

NWS 5 day forecast

There will be periods of wet snow this week. The first will happen on Tuesday afternoon. This will be mostly to our south and be a minor event. The second event will warrant a closer eye. The second one will take place on Wednesday. But since most of that will be falling during the day in mid to late March, anything that does accumulate will only be on colder surfaces.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast. As you can see most of it is to our south and should be primarily on colder, non-paved surfaces.

The rest of the week looks chilly (normal high temperatures now should be 50) with another chance of precip on Saturday. I know many Easter related activities start on this coming weekend so hopefully it will be minor or at night and be wet and not white!

Looking long term the rest of the month looks to remain chilly. April should bring warmer temperatures. Let’s just hope we don’t go from winter to summer!

Friday Weather Briefing March 16, 2018

16. March 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Weather Briefing March 16, 2018 · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winds, winter · Tags: ,

NWS 5 day forecast

Try as we might, Spring is no where near to be found. Strong gusty winds continue today, Friday with high temperatures only in the upper 30’s which is 10 degrees below normal.

Winds should die down tonight and over the weekend but early risers on Saturday morning will feel low to mid 20’s cold temperatures.

Dry conditions remain until Tuesday. Then we focus our attention on what could be the 4th coastal storm of the last couple of weeks. As of right now it could start as early as later on Tuesday and last, in some fashion or another, into Thursday morning. We’ll be keeping an eye on this and will have updates as we get closer.

Snow Squalls Possible Later Today

14. March 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Squalls Possible Later Today · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

NWS snow forecast for later Wednesday

The large storm system that only gave us 2″ of snow yesterday continued to impact New England with lots of snow. The storm is now nearly stationary and rotating clouds and some snow. There is a chance this afternoon we could see some snow showers. Some of these may be so strong and accompanied by gusty winds they will be considered snow squalls. These could leave a coating of snow to perhaps even an inch or two. Most of the accumulation will be further to north.

Here is a special weather statement from the NWS:

513 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Snow showers should make travel slippery at times over the higher elevations of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey
later today...

Snow showers are forecast to become widespread across eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey during midday and this
afternoon. Snow will briefly accumulate on untreated roads over the higher elevations this afternoon, making for intermittent
stretches of slippery travel.

One to three inches of new snow is likely today over the Poconos with an inch or less scattered about the remainder of the area
where it does snow.

Snow could be briefly heavy with visibility limited to a quarter mile for a few minutes.

Westerly winds are forecast to become gusty 30 to 40 MPH during mid and late afternoon.

Be alert for rapidly changing weather and road conditions later today in association with developing snow showers.

Winter Weather Advisory Tonight into Tuesday Morning

12. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Tonight into Tuesday Morning · Categories: snow · Tags:
Winter weather advisory for western NJ

Winter weather advisory for western NJ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ055-062-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180312T2100Z-180313T1400Z/
Sussex-Warren-Monroe-Northampton-Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Stroudsburg,
Bethlehem, and Easton
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4   inches are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex and Warren counties. In  Pennsylvania, Monroe and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Light snow develops this afternoon, then becomes heavier  later this evening and overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,  especially untreated surfaces, including during the Tuesday
  morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibility, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Storm

11. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Night Into Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

NWS snow forecast

Sunday night will be a cold night with low temperatures near 20 which is colder than the last few nights. Monday will feature increasing clouds and continued cool with night in the mid to upper 30’s. Normal high this time of year is 47. Light snow should start to move into western New Jersey from SW to NE in the evening around 8 pm give or take. Periods of light snow should continue overnight and end Tuesday morning. At this time I’m forecasting a coating to 2″ for most locations of western New Jersey. There will be more snow from this storm to the north and east. Here is a forecast map wider in scope:

First Thoughts On Monday Night Into Tuesday Storm

10. March 2018 · Comments Off on First Thoughts On Monday Night Into Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Initial NWS snow forecast for Tuesday

Let me start off by saying the next storm, which is now a Monday night into Tuesday time frame, has always been forecast to occur. For the past couple of days it’s influence looks to stay to our south and east. The past couple of computer runs are now suggesting it may travel a little closer to our area.

Even if this didn’t happen, there were indications there was going to be a little light snow with this event from an upper level low pressure system that was going to pass overhead Tuesday into Wednesday.

Right now the above map is a good starting point for any snow accumulations in our area. If we truly only get a few inches, it will primarily only accumulate on colder surfaces and not roads. Unfortunately trees are colder surfaces and many of them are weak from the last 2 storms and could result in some power outages but let’s hope that is at a minimum and some people are STILL without power from the FIRST storm.

The things to keep an eye on now is the trend. If the computer model keep the trend closer to us then we can plan accordingly.

Also note the more snow will fall further to the east and south of western New Jersey as it looks at this time.

Regardless this will be another nor’easter storm that will have big impacts to eastern New England. The pattern of strong storms does look to end with this one for now.

Major Winter Storm Ending

07. March 2018 · Comments Off on Major Winter Storm Ending · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

6.5″ Snow in Stewartsville

I don't expect any additional snow in western sections - only further east and north.

525 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

...Major winter storm ending this evening...

Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington, and Somerville
525 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches   are expected.

* WHERE...Warren, Morris, Hunterdon and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,   including during the evening commute. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Heavier Snow On The Way

07. March 2018 · Comments Off on Heavier Snow On The Way · Categories: snow · Tags:

1-2″ per hour snow rates developing soon

935 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

...INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...

Bands of very heavy snow with rates of nearly 2 inches per hour
will develop across the region by later this morning and
especially this afternoon. This will quickly turn any wet pavement
into slush and then snow covered, resulting in very hazardous or
impossible travel on all unplowed roads by late this afternoon.
Visibility will be significantly reduced at times to a quarter
mile or less and northerly winds will become gusty. This is when
tree limbs may break or some trees are uprooted, especially where
temperatures hover near 32 degrees. The result would be additional
power outages.

As snowfall rates increase to 1 inch or more per hour, accumulation
on roads will quickly become much more efficient and this will
make it difficult for road crews to keep up. Travel is not
recommended.

Storm Update and Timing Wednesday

06. March 2018 · Comments Off on Storm Update and Timing Wednesday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

NWS Snow Forecast for Wednesday

I wanted to get an update out for the snow storm on Wednesday, March 6. I also want to give an idea of storm timing. IN general things are slowing down a little.

This Evening

There will be some rain or wet snow shower around starting at 8 pm or thereafter, These will be showers in nature and generally not a big deal. The temperature will be above freezing

Over night

Rain and snow showers will become periods of light wet snow. I’m expecting a coating to a couple of inches by daybreak tomorrow

Wednesday Morning

Many folks may wake up (especially early) and look out the window and say ‘this is our big storm’ and be confused/disappointed. I do not anticipate the snow getting heavy until mid to late morning. Certainly by lunch time the snow should be coming down hard at the rate of 1-2″ per hour

Wednesday Afternoon

From mid to late morning through most of the afternoon is where we will see our heaviest snow. It should come in waves/bands. Where these bands setup will determine who gets what. Look for snow at the rate of 1-2″ per hour

Wednesday Evening

The snow should start to taper down from west to east from early evening on as it looks now. There will still be periods of light snow and flurries into the overnight.

Snow Amounts

I’m pretty confident western New Jersey will receive 6-12″ of snow. There will be some locally higher amounts where the heavy snow bands setup.

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