Update on St Valentine’s Day Snow and Cold

14. February 2015 · Comments Off on Update on St Valentine’s Day Snow and Cold · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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First off happy St. Valentine’s day to anyone who observes the holiday! Second let’s talk about the 1-2-3 we are going to get with weather today into Sunday.

The first for western new jersey will be snow showers which can start as early as this morning. Look for them to be flurries at times to brief periods of moderate snow at other times. This should be on an off today into tonight. I’m still thinking western new jersey will see 1-3” of snow with more to the east and north. Then as see in the above map, as the arctic front passes through the area this evening, we will get another intense burst or squall of snow.

Second will be the wind. As the arctic front swings thru the area tonight, a storm system will rapidly intensify in the ocean. As it pulls away, VERY strong winds will develop over our area. In fact the NWS has placed us in a High Wind Warning starting at 10 pm tonight until 2pm Sunday. We may have winds gusts as high at 50 or 60 mph – higher along the coast. The highest winds will be 5 am Sunday morning until noon.

The third part will be the extreme cold the winds will usher in. Once again this looks like the coldest air of the winter. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid teens and Monday morning lows will be below zero. We will only rebound to the mid teens again on Monday with low single digits lows for Tuesday morning.

And we will have a lot of blowing snow tonight into Sunday! How many days until Spring?

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Brutally Cold Weather Here To Stay

13. February 2015 · Comments Off on Brutally Cold Weather Here To Stay · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Western new jersey morning low temperatures are in the low single digits this morning courtesy of yesterday’s arctic cold front. We also picked up 1/2” of new snow. Winds will remain brisk today and high temperatures won’t be very high – only in the mid to upper teens!

Tonight thankfully won’t be as cold as this morning. Then our attention turns to Saturday. Another more potent arctic cold front will pass through the area later Saturday afternoon. It will be accompanied by a period of two of light to moderate snow. I do not think we will get as much as the NWS indicates in the map above. My forecast is for 1-3” of snow. More snow can fall to the north and east which will be closer to the energy that will be with the front. Once this front passes, it will generate a fast moving storm off the new jersey coast that will bring near blizzard conditions again to southeastern new england. image

This will all result in a very cold Valentine’s night and Sunday morning. Sunday temperatures will not get too much above 10! Monday morning could be the coldest part with low temperatures at or below zero in most of the area.

Then our attention turns to the next storm for later on Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm looks to have more moisture than the last few so will have to be watched carefully.

Snow Showers On Thursday Usher in Colder Air

12. February 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Showers On Thursday Usher in Colder Air · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Folks in western new jersey that are looking out the window Thursday morning may not believe that they are seeing in some cases moderate snow. Don’t be too alarmed. It should only amount to a coating to 1” and should be over within the hour. Then there will be snow showers as the artic front passes the area this afternoon. This front will usher in very cold air tonight and Friday.

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Saturday morning will be cold as well then we will see more snow showers or a period of light snow Saturday afternoon and night. We are watching Saturday night carefully. This storm will arrive with the next arctic front and will intensify. The questions is will it intensify around us, or has been the case recently, to our east. Right now I’m thinking it will be to our east but we will keep an eye on it with updates.

Sunday may be the coldest day of this winter with temperatures not getting above 10! Then Monday morning will earn the badge of the coldest morning of the winter with temperatures expected just below zero. Monday won’t recover too much with temperatures remaining in the teens.

Arctic Plunge

11. February 2015 · Comments Off on Arctic Plunge · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Western new jersey had morning lows in the mid teens. Today will be similar to yesterday but perhaps a couple of degrees cooler with partly sunny skies. We will gradually cloud up tonight with flurries arriving by Thursday morning. Look for periods of snow showers on Thursday with a coating to perhaps 1” at most as it looks now. This will bring the first round of even colder air to the eastern half of the nation. temperatures on Friday will not get out of the low to mid 20’s with a stiff wind.

Then another arctic front accompanied by a fast moving clipper will visit the area on Saturday. This will bring some light snow and even colder temperatures for Sunday into Monday. The map above show a computer model representation of Monday morning lows. Most of western NJ is below zero by 5 or 10 degrees!

So even though we’re well into winter and somewhat used to winter weather, I want the purpose of today’s blog to urge everyone to get ready for even colder weather to come unfortunately.

Tuesday Morning Update

10. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Western new jersey received anywhere from a coating to 1/2” of sleet and snow mostly last evening. Most locations did receive a coating of ice s well which resulted in no school yesterday and delays this morning.

Today will be a rather nice day. Mostly cloudy skies should become partly cloudy and temperatures should make it to the mid 30’s. This should help with some snow and ice melt. Tomorrow should be similar but a little cooler. Then our attention turns to another clipper and artic front on Thursday. We have seen this, on Thursdays, quite a bit this winter season. Look for it to bring a coating to 2” of snow to the area and then back in the freezer with Friday and Saturday morning lows near 0 and Friday highs in the mid teens. Saturday will stay in the low 20’s. Another fast moving clipper will move into the area on Saturday giving us another shot of light snow. Some of the forecast models allow this clipper to develop while others say no. So like everything this winter we will need to keep an eye on it.

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If anyone thinks the weather will warm up anytime soon think again. The 6-10 day temperature outlook released yesterday should the entire eastern seaboard in much below temperatures. Just think of how warm a day in the 40’s will feel when it finally gets here!!

Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday

09. February 2015 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Monday morning update for western new jersey has most area schools closed today. Light rain started over night and transitioned to freezing rain and sleet as the temperature slowly dropped. Most untreated surfaces are slipper as seen in the above photo.

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I was impressed with the steady rain of temperature decline since midnight. In researching this further and looking at overnight observation the colder air actually came in from the east and north. Portions of long island were colder than NJ. And now NJ is colder than portions of PA. This will all even out as the coastal storm strengthens.

As this trend continues today, we will see more sleet than freezing rain. Then some light snow will transition in this afternoon. I still expect only a coating to perhaps 2” in most areas. Northern sections of western new jersey will experience slightly more snow as they will have cold longer.

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After today conditions improve. Tuesday we should see temperatures back up above freezing. Then another artic front will pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a little light snow but also the return of very cold air – perhaps the coldest of the season. Hopefully I’ll be able to stop saying that soon…

Winter Storm Update for Monday

08. February 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Update for Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Sunday will remain mostly cloudy and rather mild in western new jersey today with high temperatures around 40. There is some light scattered rain falling but is not reaching the ground since it’s still too dry outside.

I expect light scattered rain showers to move into the area this evening and overnight. I expect our temperatures to remain above freezing until at least the early morning commute on Monday. This means that any precipitation that falls should be mainly rain. Since the colder air, which is slow to arrive is coming from the north, these locations may see a wintry mix by morning rush. Then during the day Monday I see mostly light precipitation that will be either rain and rain transitioning to a wintry mix. I do not see a lot of precipitation on Monday during the day. Then as colder air continues to come in from the north, by Monday evening we should see more in the way of a light snowfall. I’m forecasting a coating to 2” with more to the north.

The NWS has our area under a winter weather advisory from tonight thru early Tuesday morning. The maps above reflect their thinking on how much ice and snow western new jersey should receive.

Regarding school on Monday, at this point its too early to call. I certainly hope its not one of those situations where they close school and then there is only light on and off precipitation during the day with temperatures near or slightly above freezing.

Weekend Update

07. February 2015 · Comments Off on Weekend Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Saturday morning is starting off cloudy in western new jersey. Don’t be surprised if you see a few snow flurries this morning. A disturbance is passing to our north and producing some light snow. Most of this is not reaching the ground since it’s so dry outside.

Saturday will remain cloudy with highs in the mid 30’s. The weekend should remain precipitation free until later Sunday night. We then expect rain or a wintry mix to start lightly and continue into Monday. As colder air arrives on Monday, the wintry mix may change to snow and give us a light accumulation before ending. Right now that looks to be a coating to 1-2”

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Looking down the road the rest of the week should be dry and only slightly below normal temperatures. The another artic front will push thru the area giving us once again very cold temperatures Friday into next weekend.

National Weatherperson Day

05. February 2015 · Comments Off on National Weatherperson Day · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Happy National Weatherperson Day! For more information on the history of national weather person’s day follow this link.

Another artic cold front moved through western new jersey this morning by sunup and dropped about 1/2” of snow in the area. Temperatures did not rise too much after than and dropped for most of the day. By the evening commute temperatures are near 20 degrees! Tonight will be possibly the coldest night of the winter so far with low temperatures approaching zero.

Friday will be another cold day similar to this past Tuesday. Friday night won’t be quite as cold as tonight and the winds should diminish making it feel nicer. Saturday will have more clouds than sun but temperatures’ should rise to the mid to upper 30’s in our area.

Here’s the synopsis of what will happen Sunday into Tuesday. The artic front that passed through the area this morning will stall south of our area. Warmer air in advance of another storm system in the upper plains will bring in some precipitation on Sunday. This could arrive as early as Saturday night – timing to be determined. Sunday will feature a mix of snow, sleet and perhaps even rain. Since warm air will still be pumped in the upper layers of the atmosphere above us, we may even see rain in southern sections for a time. Then as the storm reaches the coast and intensifies, it will bring colder air into the area Sunday evening into Monday. It’s this time period that hold the greatest potential for our area to receive snow from this system.

One thing I want to point out is the heavier amounts of precipitation (snow) will fall to our north – primarily north of interstate 80. Computer model trends have been keeping it up there and in some cases moving it north – so this will be something to keep an eye on. If the precipitation moved too far north we will be warmer and receive less snow.

The situation should become clearer tomorrow.

Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow

04. February 2015 · Comments Off on Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Only far northern sections of western New Jersey saw any light snow or flurries this morning as an upper air disturbance passes north of the area. Once this clears skies should turn party sunny and warmer! We may approach 40 degrees this afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts as colder weather is on the way. Another artic front will approach the area Thursday morning and bring with it a period of light snow or snow showers that should generally leave behind a dusting to 1”. Once again more should fall to our north as seen in the map above.

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Thursday night/Friday morning will be very cold with temperatures in the low single digits. Friday will be a very cold winter day similar to yesterday. then we moderate a bit on Saturday. Then another system approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday. There are several possibilities as what will happen with the next system so more information will be posted as we get closer. the cold and active storm pattern looks to continue easily into next week.

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