Winter Precipitation Graphic

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Precipitation Graphic · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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Figured tonight would be a good time to repost this graphic that explains the difference between snow, sleet and freezing rain.

And you can only get hail in thunderstorms which are typically in warmer weather. Hail and sleet are different.

So right now, even though we are well below freezing at the surface in western New Jersey (mid 20’s), there is a warmer layer above us that is melting the snow. But there is still enough cold air near the surface to re-freeze the rain and turn it into snow. Once a snow flake melts, it can’t go back to being a snow flake Sad smile

We will most likely have a period of freezing rain until all of the warmer air makes it down to the surface and gives us rain. We want that to be a short as possible. I’d rather have sleet over freezing rain…

Light Snow Started

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Light Snow Started · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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In what has become a very familiar site in western New Jersey this winter, light snow has begun to fall in the area again. The light snow started around 1:15 pm.

The snow may pick up in intensity as the afternoon wears on. Now that we are in a stronger March sun angle, snow may not stick to untreated surfaces until later in the afternoon or early evening.

But that is the time we should start transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. The hopefully plain rain later tonight as we slowly climb above freezing.

Be safe on the roads this afternoon and evening!

Busy Three Days of Weather!

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Busy Three Days of Weather! · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , ,

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Skies are now mostly cloudy in western New Jersey this Tuesday morning. We will see the clouds thicken up and lower as the day moves on. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 30. Look for snow to move into our area between 3-5 pm. Most locations will receive a coating to 2” of snow this evening before it changes over to sleet then freezing rain. Speaking of changeover, I believe this will happen quickly this evening. We could start seeing sleet mixing in as early as 7pm. Then it will become a complete wintry mix including freezing rain. Then we start the waiting game: how fast will the surface temperature rise so we can switch from freezing rain to plain rain. This could happen as early as 10 pm or as late as after midnight.

We will have periods of rain late night into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer with a high in the low 40’s.

Then round two starts. Colder air will start working into our area Wednesday evening and night. This will eventually mix the rain with sleet. Then we will transition to snow and it looks to continue into Thursday. This will be a battle between how fast the cold air arrives while the precipitation stays around. Right now computer models are suggesting we have the potential for an additional 3-6” late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I’ll focus more on this once we get tonight’s weather out of the way.

Then colder Thursday night (single digits) then we have what looks like a nice stretch of dry weather Friday into Monday!

Active Weather Week Ahead

02. March 2015 · Comments Off on Active Weather Week Ahead · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Sunday’s snow behaved pretty much as forecasted for western New Jersey. Most locations received about 2-4” of snow. Stewartsville received 2.9” of snow before ending as a little freezing rain. Roads were horrible late yesterday. Most schools were once again delayed Monday morning.

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Today we’ll see sunshine and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. There will be a little breeze that will make it a little cooler. Keep in mind our normal high temperature for early March is mid 40’s!

It will be important to get up as much snow today on walks and drives as it will get cold tonight. Low temperatures will be in the low teens. Tuesday will feature an increase of clouds with light snow arriving late afternoon into the evening. The snow will mix and change to sleet then freezing rain overnight. Look for 1-2” of snow before changeover. We will warm up enough on Wednesday to change over to a rain with a high temperature in the low to mid 40’s. Then another disturbance will ride up near us and bring down colder air Wednesday night that will change the rain back to snow before ending. We could receive more light snow accumulations then. We end the work week on a cold note with highs in the 20’s.

Right now it looks like a good weekend with temperatures near 40 so keep your fingers crossed!

Initial Forecast for Sunday Snow

28. February 2015 · Comments Off on Initial Forecast for Sunday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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After Saturday morning lows in the single digits, western New Jersey weather will be sunny with relatively light winds and a high temperature in the mid to upper 20’s today. Today might be a good day to run any errands or do outdoor chores. This evening will start off clear and temperatures will drop fast initially under clear skies and light winds. Then clouds will increase the second half of the night. We should have an overnight low in the single digits again.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with periods of light snow starting as early as mid day. I do think the snow will be spotty and intermittent until later in the day. There could be periods when it’s coming down pretty good followed by little or no snow – similar to the last event like this. Then the snow will become more steady and regular late in the afternoon into the evening. Then we start the race of warm air moving in above us that will change us to a wintry mix. I do think we will remain below freezing for most of the time precipitation is falling. This time, unlike the last storm, I think we will mix with sleet and freezing rain at the end of the storm. This will lead to less snow in southern sections of western New Jersey.

Right now I’m forecasting a general 1-3” of snow on Sunday and Sunday night. There will be a little more in northern sections where the mix or changeover does not occur. I do anticipate all precipitation ending BEFORE sunup on Monday morning. So hopefully any school impacts will be delays only at best.

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Monday will turn out to be a nice day with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s. Our next storm will be later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now this looks to be a warmer snow. We may briefly start off with snow that will go to a wintry mix rather quickly and then to rain.

Friday Morning Weather Discussion

27. February 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Weather Discussion · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Western New Jersey did see some light snow yesterday but it didn’t amount to too much. Most places only received a dusting or a coating. Early risers this morning may have also seen some flurries as well as cold temperatures in the low teens.

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Friday will feature clouds and sun and a few passing flurries with highs in the mid 20’s. Tonight and Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows in the single digits. Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 20’s. Sunday will see light snow developing in the afternoon and into the evening and overnight. At this point this is looking very similar to the last storm we received where we started off as snow and some areas finished as sleet and freezing rain. So look for a small accumulating snow later on Sunday and Sunday night, possibly changing to a wintry mix and ending early Monday. It may actually warm up enough by Wednesday to give us rain. More details on all of this over the weekend.

Thursday Morning Weather Forecast

26. February 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Morning Weather Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Radar is showing it snowing over western New Jersey this Thursday morning. However it’s not reaching the ground. Why? Because its so cold and dry outside. All of the snow south and east of Philly is reaching the ground and accumulating several inches. We should only see flurries today with most of it out of the area by early afternoon.

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This storm passing offshore will bring in a fresh supply of cold air. We should have a low near 10 Friday morning and remain in the 20’s during the day Friday and Saturday. It will also be cold Saturday and Sunday mornings with a low in the single digits.

Out next chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into Monday. More info on that as we get closer.

Thursday Morning Snow Potential

25. February 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Morning Snow Potential · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I wanted to post an update this evening. Nothing major but more of a heads up. If you have been reading my last several posts, I’ve been mentioning the computer models have been inching up the snow for Thursday. The short term models continued to do that today as well. In looking at the national radar now, it too looks more northerly to me.

So I just wanted to give everyone a heads up that the flurries could be a period of light snow or some snow showers. I see this as being nothing more than a coating at best. The NWS map above has all of northern NJ in <1”. Timing should be in the early morning ending around mid day.

Above Freezing Wednesday; Perhaps Some Snow Showers Thursday

25. February 2015 · Comments Off on Above Freezing Wednesday; Perhaps Some Snow Showers Thursday · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Overnight lows were a bit higher that I forecasted for this morning in western New Jersey but I’m sure no one is going to complain Smile. Today should be a nice day and we should get above freezing with mostly sunny skies.

I found the above graphic online courtesy of the NWS in Pittsburgh. I know there are a lot of people out there that are tired of winter in the north east and ready for spring. While I believe March will start off on the cold side, I look for some relief during the week of March 8th so hang in there!

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Tomorrow morning we may see a few snow showers. A storm system is passing to our south. It now looks like it will get *very* close to our area. So we will certainly start off cloudy and see some flurries or snow showers tomorrow morning – especially in sections east and south of here.

We should end the week with mostly sunny skies but temperatures in the 20’s. Next chance of precipitation will be Sunday into Monday. More on that as we get closer.

Record Breaking Tuesday Morning Cold

24. February 2015 · Comments Off on Record Breaking Tuesday Morning Cold · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

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Western New Jersey residence awoke to another morning of below zero temperatures. Stewartsville was –7. Points further to the north were in the teens below zero! At least the wind died down. Calm winds in part allowed us to get this cold. A fresh snow pack helped as well as clear skies. Allentown’s previous low temperature record for today was 4 above. What’s also worth point out is this is the fourth morning this month we were below zero! And we are on day 32 of consecutive snow cover.

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High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper teens. Tonight will not be as cold with some clouds increasing. It’s been an amazing winter when we can say “not as cold tonight” yet the low will be in the mid single digits! Wednesday will see high temperatures in the low to mid 30’s. We will still be watching a storm to our south Wednesday night and Thursday. It still looks not to impact us but the NJ shore and eastern Long Island ay receive some light snow. We finish out the week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s.

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