A light snowfall is in the forecast for Tuesday for western New Jersey. More snow will fall to our south. At this time I’m expecting 1-3″ for western New Jersey. I had the “pleasure” of driving through this storm early today in Ohio. It was more intense than I thought it would be. Within 1 10 minute drive the left lane was covered and visibility greatly reduced. One hour later the snow had let up considerable so it wasn’t a big event – just enough to slow things down a little
Good morning western New Jersey. We are waking up to mostly cloudy and cold this Tuesday morning. Today will feature two minor rounds of snow today. The first will be primarily flurries that will be around mid day. There could be a brief break then another round later in the afternoon into the evening. The second round could be more in the snow shower or even a snow squall as the arctic front moves through. Both of these could leave a coating in some areas to a 1/2″ or 1″ in others. Higher amounts will be to the north and west.
NWS Snow fall expected
Look for periods of rain on Tuesday. Right now we are in between two areas of rain. Steadier rain is to our east and moving away from us. An upper level disturbance is bringing slightly steadier rain to our west and that is heading in our direction. Look for that to arrive later this afternoon into the evening. Right now it looks like 1/4″ to 1/2″ of rain in general – some spots a little more.
Stewartsville NJ received 0.67″ of new rainfall as of 7 am this morning. As you can see in the radar above, we still have a few more heavier showers that will pass through western New Jersey this morning.
Then the next question is how much, if any additional rain will we receive this afternoon? It all depends on how much sunshine and how warm it gets. The early morning rain was cue largely to a warm front. If you haven’t stepped outside yet our friend humidity is back for a big visit. But a cold front will pass though later today and will probably result in some additonal showers.
Everyone in western New Jersey enjoyed a beautiful day yesterday with high temperatures in and around 50! We also had quite a bit of snow melt. Stewartsville is down to 10” average on the ground.
Today we will see an increase in clouds with periods of rain arriving from 2-4 pm. Rain should end overnight. Look for 1/4 – 1/2” rain.
Wednesday looks to be even nicer than Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50’s!
Rest of the week looks good with some rain on Saturday.
Skies are now mostly cloudy in western New Jersey this Tuesday morning. We will see the clouds thicken up and lower as the day moves on. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 30. Look for snow to move into our area between 3-5 pm. Most locations will receive a coating to 2” of snow this evening before it changes over to sleet then freezing rain. Speaking of changeover, I believe this will happen quickly this evening. We could start seeing sleet mixing in as early as 7pm. Then it will become a complete wintry mix including freezing rain. Then we start the waiting game: how fast will the surface temperature rise so we can switch from freezing rain to plain rain. This could happen as early as 10 pm or as late as after midnight.
We will have periods of rain late night into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer with a high in the low 40’s.
Then round two starts. Colder air will start working into our area Wednesday evening and night. This will eventually mix the rain with sleet. Then we will transition to snow and it looks to continue into Thursday. This will be a battle between how fast the cold air arrives while the precipitation stays around. Right now computer models are suggesting we have the potential for an additional 3-6” late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I’ll focus more on this once we get tonight’s weather out of the way.
Then colder Thursday night (single digits) then we have what looks like a nice stretch of dry weather Friday into Monday!
I’m going to lower my snow total forecast for overnight into Tuesday morning. My reasons are as follows:
1- computer models today have trended a little further south
2- its so cold and dry out there it will take the snow a little longer to reach the ground (and not evaporate)
3- In looking at observations and radar this afternoon, most of the snow that is moving this way looks to be moving more to the east than north east. I’m starting to think this may be the southward trend
4- The NWS only has a winter weather advisory for Hunterdon county and nothing further north and west.
So I’m thinking we are more likely to see 1-3”
What can go wrong? The storm could track further north and put us in heavier snow. And since it is so cold, the snow ratio will be higher. Normally when it’s close to freezing, 0.10” of liquid will equal 1” of snow. But when its colder, this goes up. In fact it goes up more as it gets colder. Right now we could be in the 20:1 ratio area meaning that if only .1” of precip falls, that will give us 2” of snow.
If I see this change drastically later on this evening I’ll update.
Western new jersey received anywhere from a coating to 1/2” of sleet and snow mostly last evening. Most locations did receive a coating of ice s well which resulted in no school yesterday and delays this morning.
Today will be a rather nice day. Mostly cloudy skies should become partly cloudy and temperatures should make it to the mid 30’s. This should help with some snow and ice melt. Tomorrow should be similar but a little cooler. Then our attention turns to another clipper and artic front on Thursday. We have seen this, on Thursdays, quite a bit this winter season. Look for it to bring a coating to 2” of snow to the area and then back in the freezer with Friday and Saturday morning lows near 0 and Friday highs in the mid teens. Saturday will stay in the low 20’s. Another fast moving clipper will move into the area on Saturday giving us another shot of light snow. Some of the forecast models allow this clipper to develop while others say no. So like everything this winter we will need to keep an eye on it.
If anyone thinks the weather will warm up anytime soon think again. The 6-10 day temperature outlook released yesterday should the entire eastern seaboard in much below temperatures. Just think of how warm a day in the 40’s will feel when it finally gets here!!
Tuesday December 2, 2014. 5 pm.
As many of you saw already today’s weather is much different that yesterdays! The day started off with some blue skies:
But then as the day went on it became cloudier and colder. In fact light snow moved into the area just before noon. A very light snow accumulation resulted mainly on colder unpaved surfaces. The roads were fine. The temperature never dropped below freezing.
What’s ahead?
Look for the snow/sleet to changeover to all rain, albeit a cold rain this evening and continue into showers early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will feature improving weather!
-Dave
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