12. March 2017 · Comments Off on Sunday Look At Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Unseasonably cold weather continues this weekend in western New Jersey. This will continue for most if not all of the week ahead.

Computer model forecasting continues to show a substantial snow storm for western New Jersey for very late Monday evening into most of Tuesday. The map above is a forecast from one of the many computer models meteorologists use as tools to forecast weather.

Tuesday storm will be composed of two factors, one storm that is now in the Pacific NW and the second a tropical low disturbance down in the gulf states. These two are predicted to interact with each other off the mid Atlantic coast up into the north east.

Of course everyone wants to know how much snow. In such a dynamic storm like this one will be almost always banding of precipitation sets up. If you are in a band for a considerable amount of time precipitation can be falling at extremely heavy rates. Meanwhile where there is no banding and only lighter precipitation is falling, it’s a much different story. You can see some examples of that in the map above. Looks at the dark blues in western New Jersey compared to the light blue in parts of eastern PA.

So in a storm that has bands of precipitation, depending on where the storm moves, also determines where the bands of precipitation set up.

Based on everything I’m seeing now I’m predicting that western New Jersey will receive 10-18″ from Tuesday’s storm. I dislike putting out such a wide range in amounts but at this time its the best call. The NWS map above agrees with this thinking and says 12-14″ is “likely” for western New Jersey.

Timing: snow doesn’t look to start in our area, at this time, until around midnight Monday night. It should be somewhat light at the beginning. But then will get heavier and steadier overnight and last into a good portion of Tuesday.

Our NWS has places western New Jersey under a Winter Storm Watch for this event. Further to the east in NE New Jersey, NYC and Long Island a Blizzard watch is in effect. So that tells us this storm will have gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

can things change before the storm? Absolutely. If and when they do I’ll post updates here or on the Facebook page.

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Details · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Confidence has increased today that a storm will form on the arctic cold front that is forecast to pass through western New Jersey later tomorrow afternoon. It’s hard to talk about snow after how warm it is forecast to be tomorrow. High temperatures on Wednesday will get in the upper 50’s to around 60! High temperatures on Thursday will be near 30!

The above map is a forecast from one of the European computer weather models that you hear talked about in the news a great deal. As you can see it is forecasting a nice swath of accumulating snow from WV to Maine.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for late Wednesday into Thursday as previously communicated.

At this point I’m forecasting 4-8″ of snow for western New Jersey. Sadly this will be the biggest snow storm of our winter (so far?). There is potential for more in higher elevations to the north where up to 10″ may fall.

This will be a quick moving storm and most of the snow will be done by mid day on Thursday. There could be some snow showers Thursday afternoon but it will be cold and windy as the storm departs.

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch for Thursday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon.

* Locations...eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New
  Jersey. 

* Hazard types...heavy snow.

* Snow accumulations...potential for 6 or more inches.

* Timing...a wintry mix will overspread the area from the west
  Wednesday night. The event will likely begin as snow north of
  the I-78 corridor. Elsewhere, rain will change over to snow from
  northwest to southeast late Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning. Sleet may mix briefly during the transition from rain
  to snow. The snow could be heavy at times late Wednesday night
  and Thursday morning before tapering off from west to east
  during the afternoon Thursday.

* Impacts...the heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could
  make travel dangerous. Significant impacts to the Thursday
  morning rush are likely.

* Winds...north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Temperatures...upper 30s and lower 40s at the onset, falling
  into the lower 30s by early Thursday morning.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less at times in heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor 
the latest forecasts.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.Weather.Gov/phi/winter
21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Latest Snow Forecast For Western New Jersey · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

12507292_1020773054645378_3950345578539035797_n

I’m in complete agreement with the above map from the National Weather Service in Mt Holly NJ. It shows less snow to the north and more to the south. A general 6-12″ for western New Jersey area with more to the south and less to the north.

The snow will not start until the pre-dawn hours on saturday morning. So by sun up on Saturday there may only be a coating to an inch or so on the ground. Saturday will be when the storm moves in and intensifies as it does so. It will be breezy as well with temperatures not getting above freezing in western New Jersey.

Today and Friday will be great days to prepare for the storm. Unfortunately I heard supermarkets are already busy and shovels and salt are selling like hot cakes on Sunday morning. This of course is to be expected for a January snow storm – especially the first one.

Look for the snow to not end until the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The winds will remain brisk if not full fledged windy so that will make cleanup all the harder.

You may have heard that eastern NJ and NYC has issued a blizzard watch. Why not here? That’s because they are closer to the coast and the winds will be higher. A blizzard does not mean more snow necessarily – it focuses more on reduced visibility from blowing and drifting snow over several hours. There is also blizzard watch in Washington DC area for the same reasons.

If you have any interests along the coast, there will be coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40-60 mph. There could be some rain or sleet mixed in at times along the shore.

I will update when I have something to share during the day today and tomorrow and throughout the storm on Saturday (provided power and internet cooperate 😉

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch Issued by NWS · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

NWS Warnings

A quick update to mention that the National Weather Service has updated a Winter Storm Watch for this storm we’ve been disusing from late Friday night into Sunday morning.

Here are the details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ061-062-105-211000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0500Z-160124T1500Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA...LEHIGH
  VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
  HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY BE DRY AND PUFFY AT THE START, BUT WILL
  BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE
  PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO
  WIRES AND TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL
  BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING ACCUMULATION DURING THE
  EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&
31. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update On Sunday-Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

10930992_856846761025578_3255655532733196150_n

Another very cold morning in western New Jersey this Saturday morning. Most stations were in the single digits with a stiff north west wind making it feel well below zero with wind chill.

I wanted to post this great graphic from the NWS that shows the different types of winter precipitation. Why? Because my forecast has some of them in it!

Recent computer modeling of the Sunday night-Monday morning storm continues to bring the storm closer to our area. This will result in the rain/mix/snow line coming very close to our area. In fact, at this time, I believe southern areas of western new Jersey will in fact switch over to a mix if not completely rain.

The NWS has placed western New Jersey in a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday evening into Monday. There current forecast for snow amounts is below:

StormTotalSnowRange (4)

At this time I’m not forecasting amounts that high in southern areas of western new jersey. In these areas I’m forecasting 3-6” of snow for now with more to the north and west, especially elevated sections. In these areas I’ll forecast 6-10” at this time.

I’ll post more details Sunday morning or as time permits.

Animated Social Media Icons by Acurax Wordpress Development Company
%d bloggers like this:
Visit Us On TwitterVisit Us On FacebookVisit Us On PinterestVisit Us On YoutubeVisit Us On Instagram