Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Even though most locations have seen snow this afternoon in western new jersey, there are sections further north and west that have seen little. Everyone received a good amount of snow initially. But then a large dry area opened up in northeast PA into northern NJ. This is the result of heavier precipitation falling to our south that what was originally anticipated. This heavier axis of precipitation now looks to be from Washington DC area to SW PA to SW NJ up to NYC area.

The heavier precipitation will slowly move north as the evening progresses. As of 5pm most areas have received about 1” of new snow. Snow ill become heavier this evening. I no longer believe that most areas in western new jersey will received 3-6” of snow. Certainly sections further to the south and east will see those numbers. My revised forecast for snow is 2-4.”

Right now temperatures at the surface have been steady after rising earlier in the day. We have to monitor what the temperature is doing in the mid levels of the atmosphere to see when sleet will start mixing in and whether or not we will go to all rain.

Here We Snow Again

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Here We Snow Again · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

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Right on time. Visibility is already less than 1/2 mile with moderate snow if not heavy already.

Saturday Snow Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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Western New Jersey woke up to partly sunny but cold skies with overnight lows once again below zero. Stewartsville recorded –3.

Enjoy the sun while it lasts. Clouds will quickly increase today and snow will overspread the area from noon to 2 pm. Snow will become heavier from late afternoon into the evening hours.

The big question is how much snow? It will be a race between how long the cold air can hang on while warmer air moves in. I’ve seen countless times before where warm air wins in western new jersey area (especially southern locations). Today I think there will be enough precipitation that will arrive before this happens that will give us a good amount of snow. I’m increasing my forecast range to 3-6.” As you can see in the map above the National Weather Service believes we will see more snow than that. In fact they are forecasting 4-8” with 6-8” being common. Most of western New Jersey is under a Winter Storm Warning. We certainly can see those amounts if the sleet and freezing rain holds off.

The wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will most likely win out overnight. But precipitation should end early Sunday morning by the time most folks wake up. Sunday looks to be warmer (more seasonable) so enjoy it while it lasts. Another arctic air mass will move in Sunday in Monday that will drop as back into the freezer on Monday. Tuesday morning looks to be another below zero morning at this point.

As far as when to shovel, I recommend making a pass before retiring for the evening if possible. This way you will get most of the snow before it turns to a wintry mix and freezing rain gets into the snow and makes it much heavier. This may start out as a light and fluffy snow but as the storm goes on the snow will become heavier and wetter in nature.

Arctic Sunday Weather Update

15. February 2015 · Comments Off on Arctic Sunday Weather Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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I don’t have any good snow photos to share with you yet. I hope to get some today if I can tolerate the snow. Western new jersey picked up about 3” of snow in the last 24 hours. II t came in two parts. First yesterday from mid day until just before dinner time then part 2 was when the snow squalls came around 8-10 pm.

Western new jersey continues under a winter weather advisory and a high wind warning. My weather station gusted to 33 mph around 4:46 am. Expect similar strong gusts today into this evening. The winds will lighten up a little tonight but it will remain windy/breezy overnight as we most likely go below zero Monday morning. Most area today will only see a high temperature in the low to mid teens and by Monday morning lows should be around 5 BELOW zero. Then on Washington’s birthday we are only back in the mid teens as we slowly cloud up late in the day for the next system.

Right now the computer models are not consistent with the next system. It looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. Some models have most of the snow going to our south but one model has the snow coming up our way. Right now I’m thinking we will see plow able snow from the next storm. More details of course as we get closer.

In closing, stay warm today and check on the elderly!

Weekend Update

07. February 2015 · Comments Off on Weekend Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Saturday morning is starting off cloudy in western new jersey. Don’t be surprised if you see a few snow flurries this morning. A disturbance is passing to our north and producing some light snow. Most of this is not reaching the ground since it’s so dry outside.

Saturday will remain cloudy with highs in the mid 30’s. The weekend should remain precipitation free until later Sunday night. We then expect rain or a wintry mix to start lightly and continue into Monday. As colder air arrives on Monday, the wintry mix may change to snow and give us a light accumulation before ending. Right now that looks to be a coating to 1-2”

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Looking down the road the rest of the week should be dry and only slightly below normal temperatures. The another artic front will push thru the area giving us once again very cold temperatures Friday into next weekend.

Ground Hog Day Storm Update

02. February 2015 · Comments Off on Ground Hog Day Storm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Happy ground Hog Day everyone! Western New Jersey picked up about 3-4” of snow late last night and early this morning. Some amounts in far northern Sussex county are approaching 12” as they never changed over to sleet and freezing rain/rain like most of western NJ did.

Already at this hour temperatures are starting to fall below freezing and light rain has already changed back to sleet and some light snow. This is somewhat surprising and concerning to me that this happened already. Look for this to continue into the afternoon. This is because the coastal storm is now taking over and causing colder temperature to rush back into the region. this will cause any standing water or wet snow to freeze over fast this afternoon. In fact we may see a 10-15 degree temperature drop in 1 hour later this afternoon!

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While I do not expect a lot of sleet and snow this afternoon some section may pick up a quick coating to around 1” in any heavier snow squalls that do develop. Look for temperatures to be in the single digits by sun up Tuesday morning.

Can you believe the ground hog actually saw his shadow? It must have been from all the TV lights! Six more weeks of winter!

Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Update on the storm. It has been snowing lightly in western New Jersey since about 5:30 pm this evening. As of 10:45 pm there is approximately 1” of new snow on the ground.

Based on observations and radar, my forecast is adjusted downward for 1-3” of snow before we start to mix with sleet and freezing rain (by 3am) and then change over to rain by 6-8am. The above map, a revised snowfall forecast by NWS, is supported by me. More snow will fall to the north and west and less to the south and east. As you go north, you will see 3-8” of snow before mixing.

Update On Sunday-Monday Storm

31. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update On Sunday-Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Another very cold morning in western New Jersey this Saturday morning. Most stations were in the single digits with a stiff north west wind making it feel well below zero with wind chill.

I wanted to post this great graphic from the NWS that shows the different types of winter precipitation. Why? Because my forecast has some of them in it!

Recent computer modeling of the Sunday night-Monday morning storm continues to bring the storm closer to our area. This will result in the rain/mix/snow line coming very close to our area. In fact, at this time, I believe southern areas of western new Jersey will in fact switch over to a mix if not completely rain.

The NWS has placed western New Jersey in a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday evening into Monday. There current forecast for snow amounts is below:

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At this time I’m not forecasting amounts that high in southern areas of western new jersey. In these areas I’m forecasting 3-6” of snow for now with more to the north and west, especially elevated sections. In these areas I’ll forecast 6-10” at this time.

I’ll post more details Sunday morning or as time permits.

So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow

27. January 2015 · Comments Off on So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

Greenwich Twp Snow Photos January 27 2015

We all woke up Tuesday morning to about 3” of snow in western New Jersey give or take. So what happened? There is a storm and some areas got hit hard: Long Island, CT even NYC somewhat.

So what happened? Once the coastal storm formed and started strengthening it was about 50 miles or so further East than expected. This didn’t allow most of NJ to get into the heavy snow. The snow we did receive was during the day Monday from the initial clipper storm itself.

My theory on what helped this is as follows: Central PA received more snow from the clipper than forecasted. State College received a foot of snow! From a clipper? State College is certainly too far inland to be impacted from a coastal storm. I believe some energy remained over central PA. This combined with the rapidly developing storm over the ocean resulted in a snow “hole.” What I mean by this snow hole is as follows. Rising air is what causes clouds that ultimately turn into precipitation (very simplified). But you can’t have rising air everywhere. Someplace has to see sinking air. When air sinks is dries out and hence no or lighter precipitation. This is a common occurrence in these type of clipper storm that suddenly intensify when hitting the ocean. This was in part why I was keeping my snow totals much lower than most – even lower than the NWS.

I saw the signs late yesterday but I didn’t want to change thinking there was a chance. But the chance is gone. We will see breezy conditions develop today as the storm pulls away. We will see occasional snow showers that could result in a small additional accumulation.

Cold weather will continue all of this week – be prepared for that. Then ANOTHER clipper will move through the area fast on Thursday night into Friday morning. Don’t worry this won’t won’t be intensifying since it will be further to the North. But these types of storms, as we have seen already this winter, can drop nuisance snows.

Early Afternoon Update on Storm: Impressive

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Early Afternoon Update on Storm: Impressive · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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In looking at weather data so far, I’m impressed with the storm and starting to worry that perhaps this is an over achiever for western New Jersey.

On the radar above that was taken at 2:30 pm on Monday, there is now a solid band of snow over Long Island across NYC into northern NJ. This has formed faster than I anticipated. Furthermore the band appears to be staying in place. I’m starting to wonder if this band will remain and pivot as time goes on and the storm gets closer.

Computer models continue to support the storm as is. Current observations are showing the storm has formed slightly WSW of where the computer forecasts indicated. Furthermore the upper air support may be slight more favorable as well.

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The NWS snowfall prediction from mid day is above. They are forecasting 10-14 for western New Jersey which is slightly higher than my forecast. They released a statement that a new snowfall forecast map will be released at 4pm. It will be interesting to see if there are any changes.

We also received 1.6” of new snow as of lunch time. This was a little more than what I though we would receive so early in the storm cycle.

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So as of right now I continue to support the totals show in the map above. If I continue to see signals I’m seeing now I may be increasing my totals later on. I don’t like to do that but don’t want to leave anyone “buried” if there is a change in the weather.

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Beyond this storm we will remain in an active pattern. Look for another fast moving clipper snow storm Thursday evening and night. This certainly won’t be anything impressive but will add to the cold and snow totals. There are also signs of a larger storm towards Ground Hog day…

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