23. January 2016 · Comments Off on Saturday Morning Update On Blizzard · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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Stewartsville, NJ received 8.1″ of new snow so far from the blizzard. I will forward more storm reports as I see them. Snow started around 8 pm last evening and continued at various rates overnight. It was very heavy in the early morning hours.

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Right now there is what we call a “dry slot” over western New Jersey. This is seen as the lighter precipitation on the radar above. This is something that is very hard to predict. If this remains over western New Jersey for an extended period of time, snow totals will have to be lowered.

As of right now I’m maintaining the forecast of 12-18″ of total snow.

Winds have been gusting to near 30 mph so far this Saturday morning. Look for wind gust to continue and even get stronger.

28. January 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Total From January 26-27 2015 · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

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As mentioned previously, western New Jersey received only about 3” of snow from the past system. but the storm was far from a bust elsewhere. Find you favorite city to see how much they received.

My mom lives on central Long Island. She received about 24” of snow. It took four people, 2 snow blowers 1.5 hours to clear her walks and driveway!

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Snowstorm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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I wanted to post one more update before retiring for the evening. So far western new jersey has picked up about 3” of snow. Currently it is not snowing that much in western new jersey. All of the heavy snow is east of us in NYC and Long Island. BUT it is heading this way!

The storm is having a hard time getting the snow to move west. So we may be looking at the lower end of my original forecast of 6-12” The updated NWS graphic above is closer to reality. Since we already have 3” on the ground would only need another 3” to meet the minimum range.

We have always said the heaviest part of this storm would be overnight. I have remembered several storms where it didn’t “look good” before I went to be but then woke up in the morning to witness all the snow. Not saying that will be the case this time but not willing to lower my totals at this time.

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Early Afternoon Update on Storm: Impressive · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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In looking at weather data so far, I’m impressed with the storm and starting to worry that perhaps this is an over achiever for western New Jersey.

On the radar above that was taken at 2:30 pm on Monday, there is now a solid band of snow over Long Island across NYC into northern NJ. This has formed faster than I anticipated. Furthermore the band appears to be staying in place. I’m starting to wonder if this band will remain and pivot as time goes on and the storm gets closer.

Computer models continue to support the storm as is. Current observations are showing the storm has formed slightly WSW of where the computer forecasts indicated. Furthermore the upper air support may be slight more favorable as well.

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The NWS snowfall prediction from mid day is above. They are forecasting 10-14 for western New Jersey which is slightly higher than my forecast. They released a statement that a new snowfall forecast map will be released at 4pm. It will be interesting to see if there are any changes.

We also received 1.6” of new snow as of lunch time. This was a little more than what I though we would receive so early in the storm cycle.

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So as of right now I continue to support the totals show in the map above. If I continue to see signals I’m seeing now I may be increasing my totals later on. I don’t like to do that but don’t want to leave anyone “buried” if there is a change in the weather.

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Beyond this storm we will remain in an active pattern. Look for another fast moving clipper snow storm Thursday evening and night. This certainly won’t be anything impressive but will add to the cold and snow totals. There are also signs of a larger storm towards Ground Hog day…

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

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I’m back from my trip, somewhat well-rested and have looked at some weather data. I like the map above from the National Weather Service (NWS). For western new jersey these are my thought: 6-12”of snow from west to east. A little further to the east will be 12-18”. Further to the east, extreme northeastern NJ into NYC and Long Island into new england, 18”+

This will be a cold storm with gusty winds. In fact Long Island will see some near hurricane wind gusts during the storm, hence blizzard warnings.

For western New Jersey we are under a Winter Storm Warning. Look for occasional snow today of various intensities throughout the day. The snow should become heavier and steadier as the day wears on. The worse of it should be tonight and overnight.

I’ll have other updates throughout the day as new information becomes available and time permits

25. January 2015 · Comments Off on Quick Sunday Night Storm Update · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

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Folks sorry for the late post. As I mentioned in my last post I was away for the past several days on business. I’ve been up since 7am and drove from Cincinnati, OH most of the day in rain and snow and just got home before.

After looking at some data BRIEFLY, my forecast at this point for western new jersey is for less snow that you’ve probably been hearing: 6-12” of snow. This is even less that the NWS map above. What less? My gut is telling me this will be a bog storm but the heaviest precipitation will be to our east. Eastern NJ, NYC and Long Island and north east will get 1-2 FEET of snow from this easy.

I will take a look at more data in the morning and of course have an update.

I also want to point out this storm will have two phases. Overnight lighter snow will move in and give us a coating to an inch or two. It will snow on Monday light for most of the day on and off. Then as the coastal storm strengthens, the snow will increase in intensity and the winds will pick up later in the day. The worse of the storm will be Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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