Friday Mid Day Snow Update

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Mid Day Snow Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

This snow today has certainly over-performed. As of 11 am 4.3″ of snow in Stewartsville. The heavy snow band that came through about an hour ago really over-produced. I picked up over 1″ of snow per hour for 2 hours in a row! That’s impressive for this type of system in March.

The radar above shows the darker band of heavy snow moving away from western New Jersey. I anticipate the snow ending by early afternoon. Then we need to be on the lookout for snow squalls this afternoon and early evening as much colder air moves into the region.

Friday Morning Snow Update

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Snow Update · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,
Early morning snow falling in western New Jersey

Early morning snow falling in western New Jersey

As of 7:15 am 1.0″ of snow has fallen in Stewartsville so far. The forecast is still on track for 1-3″ with more to the north, 3-6″ near and north of I-80.

Radar above as of 8 am shows more snow to our west. Look for the steady snow to continue until about lunch time. It will fall at various rates. After that it will be more showery with the potential for some snow squalls later in the day.

Snow is not sticking to roads in the southern area of western New Jersey for the most part unless they are in the shade.

Snow Amounts For Friday

09. March 2017 · Comments Off on Snow Amounts For Friday · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

My thoughts haven’t changed too much for Friday’s late season snow. My forecast is still a 1-3″ for western New Jersey. Less to the south and more to the north. I will add a 3-6″ band closer to I-80 and north of there. Reason being this is all starting as rain. The change to snow will occur faster up north and slower to the south.

Another factor for tomorrow is the chance for snow squalls at the end of the storm and in the afternoon. Another cold front will be following tomorrow’s storm and it looks to be accompanied by some snow squalls. Not sure if this will be a repeat of last Friday but if they materialize it could add to the snow totals some what.

What’s not changing is the well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Not getting above freezing most likely!

Then we need to continue to watch late Monday night into Tuesday. This is looking more and more like it will happen and the cold air will still be around so you know what that means…

 

Winter Storm Details

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Details · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Confidence has increased today that a storm will form on the arctic cold front that is forecast to pass through western New Jersey later tomorrow afternoon. It’s hard to talk about snow after how warm it is forecast to be tomorrow. High temperatures on Wednesday will get in the upper 50’s to around 60! High temperatures on Thursday will be near 30!

The above map is a forecast from one of the European computer weather models that you hear talked about in the news a great deal. As you can see it is forecasting a nice swath of accumulating snow from WV to Maine.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for late Wednesday into Thursday as previously communicated.

At this point I’m forecasting 4-8″ of snow for western New Jersey. Sadly this will be the biggest snow storm of our winter (so far?). There is potential for more in higher elevations to the north where up to 10″ may fall.

This will be a quick moving storm and most of the snow will be done by mid day on Thursday. There could be some snow showers Thursday afternoon but it will be cold and windy as the storm departs.

Updated Snow Forecast

07. January 2017 · Comments Off on Updated Snow Forecast · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

Updated snow forecast from the NWS

I agree with the above. Since I have nearly 1″ in Stewartsville already (0.9″) I think a 1-3″ forecast is safe – again the higher numbers will be the the south and east and lower numbers to the north and west.

Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm

15. December 2016 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday

NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above

I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.

Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.

The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.

So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.

I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.

the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!

More updates as we get closer to the event.

More Rain and Snow For Tuesday

05. December 2016 · Comments Off on More Rain and Snow For Tuesday · Categories: Fall, snow, winter · Tags: , , ,

stormtotalsnowweb

Look for sun to give way to increasing clouds on Tuesday in western New Jersey. Precipitation should arrive before the evening rush hour. I expect this system to be primarily a rain event along the I-78 corridor. Further to the north, there will be colder air and there could be some sleet and wet snow mixed in at the beginning of the storm.

The above snow forecast map from the Nation Weather Service, only has measurable snow around and north of I-80.

We need to keep an eye on how much cold air get drawn into this system. There are some computer models that are suggesting more wintry weather may happen for a little while further to the south, especially in the beginning. I’ll keep an eye on this tomorrow and will post updates as appropriate.

Heavy Rain On The Way

16. February 2016 · Comments Off on Heavy Rain On The Way · Categories: precipitation, winter · Tags: , ,
Snow outside encased in icy crust this morning in western New Jersey

Snow outside encased in icy crust this morning in western New Jersey

Anyone who does not have the pleasure of garaging their car will know real fast this morning that we had some freezing rain last evening. Allow extra time to scrape off the car and let it warm up.

Stewartsville received 1.4″ of snow before changing to sleet and freezing rain yesterday.

 

Sharp temperature rise in western New Jersey around 5 am Tuesday morning

Sharp temperature rise in western New Jersey around 5 am Tuesday morning

The temperature stayed quite cold in western New Jersey until around 5 am. Believe it or not we should top out in the mid 50’s today. Considering we were at 0 a few days ago that’s nearly a 60 degree temperature swing!

Moderate to heavy rain will be moving into western New Jersey later this morning and into the afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain will be moving into western New Jersey later this morning and into the afternoon.

We expect to see an additional 1-2″ of rain today as all that rain on the radar above needs to pass through western New Jersey. It will remain all rain as the temperatures will be quite mild in the 50’s. Be on the lookout for localized flooding. HOpefully all the rain will melt the remaining ice on sidewalks and colder surfaces.

Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday

14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , , ,
Frigid start to Valentine's Day in western new Jersey

Frigid start to Valentine’s Day 2016 in western New Jersey

The official low temperature in Stewartsville was 0 this morning. I’m sure there were several stations further north and west in western New Jersey that were -5 to -10 this morning. Brrr!

NWS "most likely" snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

NWS “most likely” snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

We will have another cold night tonight but not as bad as last night. Winds have slacked off and will go calm this evening. For the first part of tonight, look for temperatures to fall sharply. They should start to level off as high thin clouds begin to increase as the result of our next weather maker.

Look for light snow to overspread the western New Jersey area by mid day on Monday. Snow should be light to moderate at time Monday afternoon into the evening. At this time I’m forecasting 1-3″ of snow before a change over to ice and rain. Higher numbers will be to the north and west and less to the south and east.

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

Believe it or not, even with all this frigid air over our area now we are talking about rain on Tuesday. A storm is expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday and either go over us or more likely to our West. That will put western New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. Look for snow Monday evening and overnight to first mix with sleet and freezing rain then change completely over to rain before Tuesday morning. rain on Tuesday could be heavy at times with 1-2″ of rain forecast. This could result in some street and river flooding since the ground is so frozen right now.

Looking longer range we warm up a little by the weekend and that will continue into next week but colder weather looks to return the last week of the month

 

Coldest Air Of the Winter This Weekend

10. February 2016 · Comments Off on Coldest Air Of the Winter This Weekend · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

20160210_081515

Stewartsville received 2″ of new snow from both yesterday morning and overnight last night. Other areas in western New Jersey received about the same. More to the south and less to the north.

7day

The next weather headline is that very cold air is on the way for this weekend. We have a good chance of going to zero or below Sunday morning. Saturday will be very blustery. All this will start with the arrival of another arctic cold front Friday during the day. This may be accompanied by some snow showers or snow squalls.

Bundle up and plan accordingly!

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