02. October 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Joaquin Update · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

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Overnight models continue to support the idea of hurricane Joaquin heading to the north and east and not directly impacting the US coast. There of course will be indirect effects.

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Rain will move back into western New Jersey this morning and remain on and off through the night. Showers should be the rule for both Saturday and Sunday. Heavier rain now looks to remain to our south with our area receiving between 1/2″ and 1″ of rain – perhaps a bit less to the north.

And let’s not forget about the wind. I already had a gust to 19 this morning and the day just begun!

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Post Joaquin we get into some nice fall weather.

Updates as warranted.

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Latest on Hurricane Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:

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The 5 pm advisory from the NHC is out above. The forecast path is now a miss on landfall for the US. But that does not mean we won’t feel the effect of this strong hurricane. We will indirectly receive some rainfall from it along with breezy conditions. Closer to the coast will be a different story. They are already experiencing flooding at high tides and the waves will get larger and larger.

Also note on the map above it won’t be in our latitude until Tuesday. Expect breezy conditions, especially in exposed elevated locations, and near the shore of course, on Monday and Tuesday.

More updates as they become available.

 

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on JCP&L & Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

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JCP&L's photo.
01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Coastal Flooding Underway on NJ Coast · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,

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Wildwood NJ Photo by: Photo: Matt Ulmer

This is no surprise as we have had an on shore flow for the past several days with a strong north easterly winds. These winds will only increase in the next few days – even if Joaquin stays far to our east!

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Thursday 8 am Update · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:

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The 8 am update is in and the above map looks ominous for New Jersey. Joaquin remains a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

But I believe the European computer model might have been on the right track. Some of the models are now starting to trend to the right. The official NHC track above is now further to the right than yesterday (even though it moves from a mid-Atlantic landfall to our neck of the woods).

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Above in the latest run of the GFS (American model) and it is now trending further east as well. The above map is forecast for Sunday evening. Normally most meteorologists don’t pay too much attention to these “middle” runs but the NWS has been launching weather balloons 4 times a day now instead of the usual 2 times just for Joaquin forecasting.

So today will be an interesting day for Joaquin tracking. Even if Joaquin misses us out to sea, we will still have another period of heavier rain Friday into Saturday and the coast line will be impacted by waves and a persistent on shore flow for several days resulting in tidal flooding.

30. September 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Track Shifts West · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

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5 pm advisory from the National Hurricane center has shifted the forecast track of Joaquin more to the west. This is no surprise given the number of computer models that continue to show landfall in the outer banks or mid Atlantic area of the east coast.

If this track turn into reality and the storm goes to our south and west its effect in western New Jersey will still be felt with rain and breezy conditions.

There is one important computer model that still shows the hurricane going out to sea. This has been two runs in a row now. It will be important to see if the overnight run continues this or if it starts to show the westward trend

30. September 2015 · Comments Off on National Weather Service Mt Holly Issues First Statement on Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

This is the first of many statements I’m sure. The full briefing can be found here. I’ve included the highlights below:

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The 7 day rain total is the scariest thing to me for our area. This does NOT include the rainfall from overnight!

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30. September 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Strengthens · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,

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As of 11 am Hurricane Joaquin winds are at 80 mph. The track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted further to the west and brings the center near southern new jersey. The cone of uncertainty is from NC to Rhode Island.

As of right now I think we should all continue monitoring the storm and start thinking about (not acting on yet) hurricane preparations for late in the weekend into early next week.

30. September 2015 · Comments Off on Overnight Rainfall Summary. More On the Way? · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,

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Western New Jersey received some very beneficial rainfall overnight. Stewartsville received 1.71″ of rain. The best park is the rainfall rate: it wasn’t a down pour that washed away. the rate of rainfall never exceeded 1/2″ per hour.

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So when will it rain again? Even though the heavy rain is past us for now we could see a shower or two today. Then the cold front will finally pass through later on and bring October like temperatures finally. Low 70’s of today will be replaced with upper 50’s tomorrow and Friday!

The cold front mentioned above will stall not too far away from us. Waves of low pressure will ride of the front and reintroduce rain back into our area. I expect this to start as early as Thursday afternoon but it should be here by Friday at the latest. This is not directly related to Joaquin yet!

Speaking of Joaquin what will happen? The above map has the tropical storm now a hurricane and remaining one. The storm has also slowed down and is not forecast  to be in our area directly until later in the weekend/early next week as seen above.

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Meteorologists have several computer models that forecast future movements of just tropical systems. The latest forecast map is above. You can see a majority of them now take Joaquin into the eastern seaboard south of us and then turn the system north. The National Hurricane Center doesn’t believe them yet and neither do I. This is a situation that will continue to be watched and monitored.

What unclear to me at the moment is when the rain resumes later Thursday or Friday from the stalled front just to our south, will we have steady rain from that point up until Joaquin get into our area? Or will there be periods of rain? And when will the heaviest rain fall and how much? I will be focusing on answers to these questions in the days ahead.

29. September 2015 · Comments Off on Rain Later Today Into Wednesday · Categories: Fall · Tags: , ,

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Western New Jersey has already seen a few light rain showers this morning. We should remain partly to mostly cloudy today with the showers becoming more numerous as the day wears on. It will be very humid outside, especially for this time of year. Look for the heaviest rain to be tonight into Wednesday morning. Right now the Wednesday morning commute looks wet. I’m still thinking about 1″ of rain in general for the area. there could be isolated areas, especially to the north, that receive more rain.

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Then our focus will turn to Tropical Storm Joaquin. As you can see in the above map the National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to move up the Atlantic coast. If this course holds, it has the potential to pull in Atlantic moisture and give the area more heavy rain over the weekend. Timing is still tricky. Rains associated with this along with the cold front that will pass through early Wednesday morning will stall to our south and allow moisture to come in ahead of Joaquin. Yesterday it looked like Saturday would be the heaviest rain but now it may linger into Sunday. Of course there’s a chance this system will miss us to the east. The precipitation map on top doesn’t think so yet and has our area getting another good soaking but the bulls eye will by NYC on east. Updates as warranted.

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