Or better yet based on her forecast track, more like goodby Dolly! She formed in part by the upper level low pressure area that was in the east last week
More details on Dolly can be found at the NHC website here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
At the beginning of Hermine’s landfall she was going further north and west that forecast. Yesterday she decided to stay further east and south. Perhaps it was the strong high pressure to the north. Regardless the storm is further offshore than forecast.
As you can see above, we are not completely off the hook. It is forecast to come back towards the coast a little but this will not be as close as originally thought. We will have no rain from this in western New Jersey. Today will be a partly sunny beautiful day. The Jersey shore will continue to see high waves, beach erosion and tital flooding at times of high tide.
If Hermine does turn back towards the coast, conditions will not be felt until later today in Monday.
New since the last post: Hermine is forecast to become a hurricane again once it re-enters the warm waters of the Atlantic. This may not occur until later Monday into Tuesday. The storm will be very slow moving and may not be out of the area until Thursday.
At this time, we may not get very much rainfall from this system in western New Jersey. We may only see 1/2″ of rain. Some computer models don’t give us any rain. Winds will be gusty – even inland.
The most impact from this storm will be along the shore. Winds there will be much stronger and there will be coastal flooding, especially at times of high tide. There will be MANY high tide cycles with this storm since it will be around for so long!
Tropical storm warnings now up for the Jersey shore.
Today, Saturday will be a relatively nice day but we will see an increase in clouds from Hermine. We shouldn’t start to feel the impact of the storm until later Sunday.
Latest forecast map from the National Hurricane Center. The forecast continues to take Hermine well to the east of us. If this track verifies, we would receive very little impact and rain from this storm in western New Jersey. Along the Jersey shore is a completely different story. It is very RARE to have a storm like this stall for several days. If it does, even if weakening, the winds and seas will continue to pound the shoreline communities causing beach erosion and possibly coastal flooding.
Same watches and warnings are posted along the eastern seaboard.
As expected, Hermine did weaken down to a tropical storm overnight. This is not unusual as a tropical system moves over land. But once it emerges over the mid Atlantic waters, these waters are unusually warm from our hot summer. Warm waters is what feed and strengthen ocean storms….
Rainfall Forecast from Hermine
As of right now it doesn’t look like we will receive much rain from Hermine in western New Jersey. There will be some rain as you head further east. This doesn’t mean we will have sunny skies either. I expect more clouds than sun while our friend is in town.
NHC Hermine Overnight Update
the overnight computer models along with the National Hurricane Center have adjusted the forecast path for Hermine back to the East. This is not surprising and we will continue to see the forecast models sway back and forth. The storm isn’t even on land yet. Once it is we will have better data to make hopefully better forecasts.
The important thing to keep in mind is the trend. For the last day or two the trend was to have the storm come further north and east. Now we see on 12 hour period that shits it further to the east. Let’s see if this continue or not.
What’s important to note, if the above track verify’s, even though its not as close as the previous track it will impact our weather with some wind and rain on Labor Day weekend.
Another important item to note is the steering currents for this storm get very weak as it gets near our area. Notice how the last two forecast locations on the map above have the circles very close to each other. There is a possibility the storm could stall or become erratic. Again, we need to keep an eye on it and see if the trend continues.
In other news Stewartsville pickup up about 1/3″ of much needed rain overnight. Look for scattered showers this morning giving way to nicer weather and a beautiful Friday!
NHC Forecast Map for TS Hermine
TD ( turning into TS Hermine today. The storm continues to move further north and west than originally thought. The revised NHC track has the storm approaching our neck of the woods just in time for a beautiful Labor Day weekend.
As of right now, if this continues on this track, windy rains could move into our area as soon as Saturday night.
I’ll continue to keep an eye on this and provide updates.
Western New Jersey has already seen a few light rain showers this morning. We should remain partly to mostly cloudy today with the showers becoming more numerous as the day wears on. It will be very humid outside, especially for this time of year. Look for the heaviest rain to be tonight into Wednesday morning. Right now the Wednesday morning commute looks wet. I’m still thinking about 1″ of rain in general for the area. there could be isolated areas, especially to the north, that receive more rain.
Then our focus will turn to Tropical Storm Joaquin. As you can see in the above map the National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to move up the Atlantic coast. If this course holds, it has the potential to pull in Atlantic moisture and give the area more heavy rain over the weekend. Timing is still tricky. Rains associated with this along with the cold front that will pass through early Wednesday morning will stall to our south and allow moisture to come in ahead of Joaquin. Yesterday it looked like Saturday would be the heaviest rain but now it may linger into Sunday. Of course there’s a chance this system will miss us to the east. The precipitation map on top doesn’t think so yet and has our area getting another good soaking but the bulls eye will by NYC on east. Updates as warranted.
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