Executive summary on Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence remains a dangerous hurricane. In the last 24 hours not too much has changed. The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle which is very common in major hurricanes. This results in a slight weakening of the storm but it’s still a cat 4 with 130 mph winds. Once the cycle is complete, it will most likely strengthen.
Official NHC track
The latest NHC track for the hurricane is above. The Euro model is now suggesting the hurricane may make landfall further south and west than shown above. This is a result of the high pressure to the north will remain and in fact strengthen and perhaps shift to the west a little more. If this happens look for the center to go closer to the SC/NC border and NC would receive more impact from the storm over Virginia.
Timing Florence
The above map shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds combined with their probability. For instance: central and southern NJ is in green and has an arrival time of Friday. But green represents a 5-10% chance of this happening with southern NJ 10-20% chance. If the storm does move slightly further SW, look for this to shift accordingly.
Storm surge flooding
Storm Surge
Low lying areas along and to the right of the forward moving hurricane will see a storm surge of water. The above map shows the storm surge watches and warnings along with how much potential flooding there will be and where.
Rainfall total
A land falling hurricane not only brings storm surge but a great deal of rainfall, even far inland. The above map shows the potential 1-7 day rainfall forecast. Note that eastern NC takes the brunt with heavy rains in eastern VA as well
Flooding potential
With all the potential rainfall brings the risk of flash flooding. The above map shows the risk areas for this to happen. Eastern NC has a moderate risk of flash flooding.
The ECMWF model is showing potential rainfall with Florence
Keep track of major hurricane Florence. Once the hurricane makes landfall it appears the forward motion of the storm will slow down and remain in the area as it weakens. Where it goes from there is still up for interpretation. If western New Jersey does get any impact, it will not be until next week sometime…
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