The 8 am update is in and the above map looks ominous for New Jersey. Joaquin remains a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

But I believe the European computer model might have been on the right track. Some of the models are now starting to trend to the right. The official NHC track above is now further to the right than yesterday (even though it moves from a mid-Atlantic landfall to our neck of the woods).

Above in the latest run of the GFS (American model) and it is now trending further east as well. The above map is forecast for Sunday evening. Normally most meteorologists don’t pay too much attention to these “middle” runs but the NWS has been launching weather balloons 4 times a day now instead of the usual 2 times just for Joaquin forecasting.

So today will be an interesting day for Joaquin tracking. Even if Joaquin misses us out to sea, we will still have another period of heavier rain Friday into Saturday and the coast line will be impacted by waves and a persistent on shore flow for several days resulting in tidal flooding.