Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, and Somerville 339 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible.
* WHERE…Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN…From 1PM Saturday through 7PM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult on icy and snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
The computer models for the past 24 hours have been showing slightly less moisture associated with tonight’s system – the first of two. As a result I’m changing my forecast from 1-3″ to a coating to 2.” Area to the north and higher elevations could see some amounts closer to 3″.
Look for light snow to overspread our area from 8 pm – 11 pm. Snow should continue overnight but should end by morning. Tomorrow will be a good day to clean up and get ready for round 2 as our high temperature should get to 40.
AccuWeather graphic for next storm system
The Saturday night-Sunday storm will have more moisture and energy associated with it. Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow will start in the afternoon. The front end of this storm looks to have heavy snow at times. We could even receive 1+” of snow per hour at the peak of the storm.
Then warmer air will start working in the upper atmosphere and that will first mix the snow with sleet and then freezing rain. We need to be on the watch for the potential for an extended period of icing early Sunday morning.
Depending on the exact track of the storm, some areas, especially in the couth, could even change over to rain at time Sunday morning before much, much colder air arrives by mid-day. This should change any mixed precipitation back to snow for a short time and there could be additional snow accumulations.
Coldest air of the new year arrives Sunday into Monday
The cold air is going to arrive quickly on Sunday. So fast that there could even be flash freezing. Any untreated water on walkways and roads will freeze up and ice over. The temperature could drop 20+ degrees in a few hours. Temperature should go from the low 30’s (or slightly higher where there’s rain) to near 20 by the end of the afternoon into the teens in the evening. Monday morning low should be just above zero. Wind chills on Monday will be bitter and the high temperature will struggle to get out of the single digits into the low to mid teens. Wind chills will be below zero in the morning.
Now is the time to prepare your house and car for the extreme cold weather ahead. I would avoid travel Saturday night into Monday if possible.
How much snow for Saturday into Sunday? Right now I’m leaning towards 4-8″ for our area. Some areas to our NW will be measuring snow potentially in feet, not inches. I’ll be keeping an eye on this and will update accordingly.
Regardless of what happens this weekend with the storm potential it does look to turn colder than normal before the end of the month. This looks to continue into February.
SO keep your cold weather gear and clothing handy 😉 It is January after all.
While driving home last night seeing the moon out and partly cloudy skies I knew it was going to be hard for the snow to our south to make its way this far north.
But it eventually made its way up north to some locations with a light coating of snow
Snow covered leaf Sunday morning January 13, 2019
The week ahead will start off cold but return to seasonable levels of temperature and precipitation
7 Day NWS forecast
There is a slight chance of snow or rain showers Thursday night into Friday morning.
Then all attention turns to the potential for a more important start next weekend. The weather models are starting to show this potential but it is still a week away and much can change between now and then. I will keep an eye on it.
The winds of the last 2 days are gradually subsiding. Today will be cold with some wind and highs in the 30’s. Tonight will be one of the coldest nights of the new year so far. Saturday will feature increasing clouds with some light now arriving in the evening. This is going to be primarily a southern storm and will only impact our area with a coating to 1″. Some areas to the north, say north of I-80 may only see flurries or perhaps nothing at all!
Sunday will be dry with the snow staying well to our south.
Winter weather advisory in effect for this evening into Tuesday AM
Much colder day today compared to recent weather. The colder weather trend looks to continue this week after a roller coaster ride Tuesday into Wednesday.
Radar as of 12:20 pm
A warm front is moving towards our area that will bring warmer weather Tuesday. The leading edge of this is causing some light snow in central PA. If this hold together it will be in western NJ from 3-6 pm this evening.
The air is VERY dry and a lot of this may dry up before reaching our area. It may be one of those situation that the radar looks worse that what actually falls from the sky
NWS snow forecast
Look for some light snow/flurries this evening and then again late at night. Expect a coating to 1″. The greatest chances for 1″ is to the north. Then warmer air arrives overnight and should change over to a cold light rain by morning. Then the rain should let up for most of the day Tuesday until a cold front moves through in the evening. Expect another period of rain with the cold front.
Then back to typically January cold the rest of the week. All eyes will be on the potential of a coastal storm late Saturday into Sunday
Luckily the overnight frozen precipitation threat was minimal and mostly to the far north. A trace of rain was noted in Stewartsville with temperatures remaining above normal.
Once the clouds start thinning look for a breeze to kick in and result in afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. There could be some wind gusts to the low 20’s
Rain forecast for Saturday
Slightly above normal temperatures look to continue for at least the next week or so.
The rain for Saturday looks to be slightly less that what appeared yesterday. Right now it looks like we should get about 1/2″. The morning looks like the rainy period with improving conditions later in the afternoon. Sunday should be a nice day but breezy with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s.
NWS snow forecast late tonight into Thursday morning
Yesterday turned out to be a very nice first day of the year with high temperatures in the upper 50’s. And we picked up more rain – 0.90″ in Stewartsville. Took advantage of the warmer weather and did some bicycle riding yesterday.
A weak upper level system will move into our area tonight into early Thursday morning. Southern areas look to get some light rain mixed with wet snow. Further to the north the west snow could result to a coating to 1″ on colder surfaces. This should be confined to elevated areas for the most part.
Good news is we won’t have our 3rd straight Friday in a row of rain. Bad news is it will be Saturday instead. Look for another 1/2 – 1″ of rain. 2019 looks to start the same way as 2018 ended for now.
No big changes in temperature for the next 7-10 days. There are some signs that colder weather will return around mid month if not sooner.
Last sunrise of 2018 with high clouds rapidly increasing
Early morning sunshine is rapidly fading away behind increasing clouds. Rain from our next system should be in our area by mid-day.
NWS rain forecast
Our area looks to receive an additional 3/4″ – 1.25″ of rain this afternoon, evening into the early morning of January 1, 2019. This rain has already made for a top 5 in precipitation for 2018 for many locations in our area. Reading, PA is the wettest ever; Allentown top 3.
7 Day NWS forecast
After this afternoon’s rain, we should see a mild day to start off 2019 but winds will pick up and become gusty in the afternoon. If you plan on enjoying the unseasonable warmth please do so in the morning if possible.
Cooler air returns for the balance of the week but it will be slightly above normal. More rain looks to return on Friday.
NWS snow forecast overnight Sunday into Monday morning
If you haven’t been outside yet today you should. Hardly any wind, brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. It’s quite pleasant!
Clouds will be on the increase later today as a weak system approaches our area overnight. MOst of the area should receive very light precipitation – mostly a coating to 1″ of snow. Areas to the south of I-78 will see some rain mixed in. Further south than that it would be mostly rain. Further to the north, especially Sussex county you could receive closer to 2″. I like to call this “mood enhancing snow” as it won’t amount to too much and should have minimal impact to transportation. Unfortunately it should be gone by Christmas Eve night and day.
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