We received another 1/4″ of rain or so overnight. The rain is now pushing out of our area and brighter and sunny skies should return
temperatures may go up to the upper 40’s to low 50’s before a cold front pushes through our area that will bring colder temperatures back to our area. The winds will also pick up and become gusty at time. Colder and windy weather will last into Saturday.
Our next chance of wintry weather will happen late Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time it looks like another coating to perhaps 1″ of snow for our area.
Then on Tuesday another storm system will approach our area. This storm will have more moisture and will show us many different types of wintry precipitation. Right now it looks to start off as snow and perhaps accumulate a couple of inches. Then warmer air will move into our area and mix then changeover to sleet and perhaps eventually rain. More on this as we get closer to the event.
Welcome to February! After another frigid night, temperatures will rebound a little today. Stewartsville went down to -2, a whole degree warmer than the night before. But with no wind, at least it didn’t feel as terrible.
The leading edge of the warmer air is bringing a weak disturbance to our south. The clouds that increased overnight actually helped keep our temperature from falling even lower. Usually with clear skies, calm wind and snow on the ground, air temperatures can drop quite low.
So don’t be surprised if you see some flurries today, especially in southern portions of western New Jersey, or if you are traveling south today. As you can see in the forecast snow map above, not much will be falling, even to our south.
Radar Friday morning showing very light snow over southern New Jersey
Today we should see high temperatures in the 20’s. That’s a whole 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. Saturday we can tack on another 10 degrees and have high temperatures in the 30’s, which is seasonable for this time of year. We keep the trend going on Sunday with highs in the 40’s.
Even warmer next week but with that will be the chance for some rain, especially later in the week
An arctic front was responsible for bringing us the batch of frigid temperatures. It was accompanied by snow squalls which blasted through the region.
7 Day NWS forecast
So how long will the cold last? Thankfully not that long. Tonight will be another near zero night but we should recover to near 20 on Friday, the 30’s on Saturday and low 40’s on Sunday. Believe it or not we may see some 50’s on Tuesday!
Let’s hope the groundhog sees his shadow and we get an early Spring!
Now that the snow is over for today, Tuesday we now turn our attention to the arctic front that will bust into our area tomorrow. Our high temperatures of the mid 30’s will be replaced with mid 20’s tomorrow before the arctic front ushers itself into our area. This is expected to happen from noon until 2 pm.
The squall of heavy snow and wind will move quickly W-E across the region. This will be accompanied by heavy snow, gusty winds and possibly even some thunder and lightening! It will last 30 mins or so but bring heavy snow, poor visibility, quick C-2″ snow, and wind gusts >40mph. Time frame is 12-2 pm
This front will put us in the deep freeze almost as bad as the mid west has been experiencing for the last day or two. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be near or perhaps even below 0. Same for Friday morning. Prepare for the bitter cold!
Today, Monday will be a seasonably cold January day. The warmer weather of Sunday was replaced by some colder air.
Another blast of arctic air is set to arrive later on Tuesday. Before it gets here we will see some light snow Tuesday morning that could even mix with or change to rain during the day on Tuesday.
Then colder air rushes back into our area as a strengthening low pressure system pulls away Tuesday night. This will result in our area getting 2-4″ of snow.
Some areas to the north and west could see closer to 6″ of snow. Winter Storm watches are up for the Poconos where these higher amounts will fall.
The the polar vortex makes a return visit to our area. As cold as it will be the second half of this week, it will be worse in the central part of the US where wind chills could approach -60 in some areas!
Wednesday night and Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures near 0 or perhaps a little below in some areas.
Somewhat warmer air is expected for the weekend with highs on SUnday in the upper 30’s.
Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday. The warmer air will be accompanied by more wind and even a brief snow or rain shower. Monday will be seasonably cool then the fun begins on Tuesday.
An arctic cold front will pass through the area later on Tuesday. A low pressure system is forecast to form along the front and move quickly by. This may enhance the precipitation along the arctic front. On Tuesday we may see some light snow that could change to rain during the day as we warm up slightly before the frontal passage. Then the front will pass and the low pressure will come into play. We should see any rain or mixed precipitation change back to snow. Right now is looks like a nuisance event in the order of a coating to 2″.
Behind this front will be bone chilling weather similar to a week ago. High temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to get out of the teens and near 0 overnight. Thursday will be even colder during the day with temperature struggling to get out of the single digits! We should warm up a little by next weekend.
Everyone woke up to a rainy windy Thursday morning. Between 2/3 and 3/4 of an inch of rain has fallen in the area so far. Expect more rain this morning, moderate at times.
There will be some urban and street flooding along with fields ans streams.
Temperatures 8:42 am Thursday morning
The rain should start to taper off early this afternoon. The mild 50’s will start to fall into the 40’s and the winds will be brisk.
Back to reality on Friday and Saturday. Then a little break before another sharp cool down mid week next week. No major snowfall in sight at the moment.
Frigid temperatures combined with a little left over wind caused schools area wide to have a delayed start this morning.
Temperatures are recovering this morning and already in the mid to upper teens. Winds will be much lighter today and high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 20’s.
Total rain forecast thru Thursday
Light rain will move into the area Wednesday. If it arrives early enough it could be a little sleet but will change to rain and warm up into the upper 30’s to low 40’s
Rain will continue Wednesday night into Thursday with high temperatures in the 40’s. That will probably feel like a heat wave compared to our weather of the past 2 days!
Cooler weather returns after the rain but it won’t be quite as cold as what we just experienced.
The trend in the past 12 hours has been a warmer one for the upcoming storm. Overnight temperatures did not go as low as originally thought. Current temperatures are at freezing and should rise into the mid to upper 30’s today. Even though winds are calm now, they will start blowing out of the warmer east direction. Winds above us are forecast to blow out of the warm southerly direction. All of these factory should result in us receiving less snow and more rain. The good news is this should minimize any icing risks for our area.
Another trend for less snow is short range computer models are showing the approaching snow this afternoon arriving to our north and west initially missing most of our area. The front-end of the storm is where I expected most of our accumulating snow. If this stays to our north, we will receive even less snow.
Look for light snow to move into our area later this afternoon. It could be mixing with some rain or sleet pellets at the beginning but should changeover to all snow. Then expect snow to start mixing with and then change to sleet around 9 pm. Then rain will mix in and we should be changed over to all rain before midnight with rain continuing heavy at times overnight. This timeline will be delayed further to the north.
Based on what I’m seeing now I’m going to forecast 1-3″ for southern and central locations and 3-6″ further to the north where the changeover will take longer and the snow will start earlier.
Even with this warmer forecast, we will still have a sharply colder and windy day on Sunday. Any early morning rain may change back briefly to snow and then end. Winds will pick up and the temperature will start to sharply fall as the day progresses. Look for temperatures to be in the teen by evening.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for Hunterdon county and points east. Winter storm warning for Warren and above.
I wanted to post an update based on trends and data from the past 12 hours or so. I will continue to monitor for changes today and if anything significant will past later on.
The computer weather models have trended slightly colder for our area. At the same time they are also trending more warmer air above us for a longer period of time.
So what does this all mean? I think a changeover to plain rain is reduced except for possible extreme SE locations. The NWS has extended the WInter Storm Watches to also include Upper Bucks in PA and Somerset in NJ
NWS ice forecast
But warm air above us for an extended period of time will give us a lot of sleet and possibly freezing rain.
At this time I’m still predicting 4-8″ but seriously thinking of lowering to 3-6.” Most of the snow we will fall at the beginning of the storm – from when it starts until about 1 am Sunday. The snow start time looks to be late afternoon Saturday.
I’m still looking for sharply falling temperatures Sunday afternoon and night. Precipitation could end a little sooner than originally thought on Sunday. That will be something I will be looking at along with does it change back to snow. Traditionally when storms do go from snow to rain/mix back to snow very little snow falls on the backend.
Sunday night and Monday will be brutal temperature wise with well below zero wind chills and just above zero temperature. It is January after all…
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