I wanted to post an update based on trends and data from the past 12 hours or so. I will continue to monitor for changes today and if anything significant will past later on.
The computer weather models have trended slightly colder for our area. At the same time they are also trending more warmer air above us for a longer period of time.
So what does this all mean? I think a changeover to plain rain is reduced except for possible extreme SE locations. The NWS has extended the WInter Storm Watches to also include Upper Bucks in PA and Somerset in NJ
But warm air above us for an extended period of time will give us a lot of sleet and possibly freezing rain.
At this time I’m still predicting 4-8″ but seriously thinking of lowering to 3-6.” Most of the snow we will fall at the beginning of the storm – from when it starts until about 1 am Sunday. The snow start time looks to be late afternoon Saturday.
I’m still looking for sharply falling temperatures Sunday afternoon and night. Precipitation could end a little sooner than originally thought on Sunday. That will be something I will be looking at along with does it change back to snow. Traditionally when storms do go from snow to rain/mix back to snow very little snow falls on the backend.
Sunday night and Monday will be brutal temperature wise with well below zero wind chills and just above zero temperature. It is January after all…
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