The trend in the past 12 hours has been a warmer one for the upcoming storm. Overnight temperatures did not go as low as originally thought. Current temperatures are at freezing and should rise into the mid to upper 30’s today. Even though winds are calm now, they will start blowing out of the warmer east direction. Winds above us are forecast to blow out of the warm southerly direction. All of these factory should result in us receiving less snow and more rain. The good news is this should minimize any icing risks for our area.
Another trend for less snow is short range computer models are showing the approaching snow this afternoon arriving to our north and west initially missing most of our area. The front-end of the storm is where I expected most of our accumulating snow. If this stays to our north, we will receive even less snow.
Look for light snow to move into our area later this afternoon. It could be mixing with some rain or sleet pellets at the beginning but should changeover to all snow. Then expect snow to start mixing with and then change to sleet around 9 pm. Then rain will mix in and we should be changed over to all rain before midnight with rain continuing heavy at times overnight. This timeline will be delayed further to the north.
Based on what I’m seeing now I’m going to forecast 1-3″ for southern and central locations and 3-6″ further to the north where the changeover will take longer and the snow will start earlier.
Even with this warmer forecast, we will still have a sharply colder and windy day on Sunday. Any early morning rain may change back briefly to snow and then end. Winds will pick up and the temperature will start to sharply fall as the day progresses. Look for temperatures to be in the teen by evening.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for Hunterdon county and points east. Winter storm warning for Warren and above.
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