Another round of showers and thundershowers approaching western New Jersey
So far Stewartsville receive 1/4″ of rain and on and off thundershowers. Another large area is poised to move into western New Jersey at this moment.
In looking at the wider picture, I’m starting to think all this activity in “round 1” may diminish the threat for our area this afternoon. We are not getting the warm up that was anticipated. This may result in round 2 staying further to our south.
Updates as they happen…
Brrr! Most locations in western New Jersey woke up to single digit temperatures. Some areas further to the north were below zero! Certainly nothing unexpected for January weather but still cold none the less.
Today will remain cold but at least there will not be as much wind as yesterday making it feel a little more comfortable.
Our next weather system will be moving to our north and west. This will put us on the eventual warm side of the storm. Eventual is the key word. There is a good amount of cold air and snow covered ground over western New Jersey right now. It will take a while for it to all be pushed out by warmer winds. This will result in Tuesday, main in the afternoon, of another snow to sleet to freezing rain day before it eventually turns to rain. Before that changeover I’m forecasting a coating to 1″ followed by some ice on untreated surfaces. To make matters worse this should still be happening by the afternoon rush.
This will be relatively light precipitation but it doesn’t take much to make things slippery. The only good news is there is a tremendous amount of salt on area roads so hopefully they will not be too bad.
As has been the pattern with storms so far this cold season, we will get another snow to rain event on Thursday. Look for light snow to overspread western New Jersey around rush hour time – certainly by mid morning. Then, as has been the case this year, the snow will start mixing with and then change to rain. The difference this time I don’t expect much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. There is not a lot of colder air near the surface.
As far as accumulation I expect a coating to 1″ for most areas of southern Warren and Hunterdon counties with a little bit more further to the north as well as in the Poconos.
This will turn into a very big storm – for northeastern New England. Some areas will receive over a foot of snow from this storm!
Much colder air will usher in as the storm passes. Friday will be quite windy and there could be some snow squalls.
The next event to keep an eye on in New Years Eve into New Years Day. More on that as we get closer.
Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning
The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory early Saturday morning. This is basically for the wee hours of Saturday morning starting from 1 am and should be well over by 9 am.
I don’t expect most areas in the south and central section of western New Jersey to see much if any freezing rain. In colder sections and deeper valley further to the north the rain may start out as a little freezing rain.
With many people traveling and visiting for the holidays it’s better to be safe than sorry.
We can expect rain to be over around mid day and for most areas of western New Jersey to receive about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of much needed rain. Of course no one wants to see rain on Christmas Eve but it should be well over before holiday services later in the day and evening.
Here is the advisory:
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-105-241100- /O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0004.161224T0600Z-161224T1400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- UPPER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE 315 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 AM, BECOMING HEAVIER BY 6 OR 7 AM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM. * IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
We are entering a calmer pattern compared to recent. I expect this to last for the remainder of the year for the most part.
Look for much colder weather today with a slight moderation tomorrow. Wednesday, the first official day of Winter, will start a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the low 40’s.
The next chance of precipitation looks to be some rain or wet snow showers on Thursday. Then after that not until Christmas night. So travel and shopping weather looks to cooperate for the most part.
So as of right now it looks like we will have a green instead of a white Christmas this year.
Light snow approaching from the SW
If you have any outdoor chores to do today is the day. There is some very light snow or flurries approaching from the SW. Look for them to arrive late afternoon into the early evening. It shouldn’t amount to too much but some areas may receive a dusting.
Wednesday will be a transition day as the next front will move through later in the day and into the evening ushering in the coldest air of the season. More details on that tomorrow…
Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale
The storm from yesterday into this morning behaved pretty much as I expected. Stewartsville received about 2/10″ yesterday late afternoon and early evening and another 2/10″ overnight before changing to rain. I’ve seen reports of a few inches further to the north.
Roads were quite slippery late yesterday afternoon and early evening before crews could get to treat them.
Today will be the warmest day by far with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. So if you have anything outside to do, I recommend doing it today. There could be some snow showers late in the day or evening on Tuesday but the bulk of this should stay to our south.
Then the coldest air of the season arrives later Wednesday to make Thursday and Friday feel downright frigid. Temperatures those days will not not get out of the 20’s and overnight lows could fall into the single digits!
But don’t fret too much. It doesn’t look like this colder and colder pattern should continue. There are signs of a little moderation around the week before Christmas that could last until the new year. But that’s a way off so until then find your winter jacket!
Well it finally looks and feels like December! Here are some reasons this will NOT be a big snow producer for western New Jersey:
1. A warm front is approaching the area. This means once the front passes, we will get warm and the frozen precipitation will turn to rain eventually
2. The main storm system is going to go to our north and west, meaning we will be on the “warm” side of the storm
3. There is no cold high pressure to our north pumping in colder air
NWS expected snow fall
With the above in mind this is what will happen in western New Jersey. Periods of light snow will overspread the area this afternoon. This could start as early as mid day in some part of the area but most of that should stay to our west. We could see a coating on the ground from this.
Then there will be a break in the precipitation until the storm get closer to our area. The precipitation should resume mid to late evening and continue overnight.
I expect light snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain before eventually changing to plain rain by Monday morning. This transition will happen faster in southern and lower elevation areas. Areas further north and more elevated areas will see the transition take longer.
In southern warren county, central and southern hunterdon counties I expect a coating to 1″ of snow before changing over to mix then rain. North of that area up to and perhaps just a little bit further north of I-80 I can see 1-3″ of light snow. North of that has the potential for 3-6″ before the changeover.
There could be some light ice buildup during the changeover period so be aware of that.
The Monday morning commute will need some extra travel time so please allow for it.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather advisory starting at 1 pm today lasting into tomorrow.
Update: The Storms Prediction Center is upgrading our area to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms…
7 day weather forecast for western new jersey
And no I’m not talking about my social calendar. Both days will feature mid 90’s and plenty of humidity. Sunday there may be some scattered afternoon thunderstorms but Saturday just looks hot at this point.
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. * OUTLOOK...MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS HOT AS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WE GET CLOSER. * IMPACTS...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED HEALTH ISSUES WILL BE HIGH... ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY AND FOR THOSE IN POOR HEALTH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
336 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.
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