Today, Monday will be a seasonably cold January day. The warmer weather of Sunday was replaced by some colder air.
Another blast of arctic air is set to arrive later on Tuesday. Before it gets here we will see some light snow Tuesday morning that could even mix with or change to rain during the day on Tuesday.
Then colder air rushes back into our area as a strengthening low pressure system pulls away Tuesday night. This will result in our area getting 2-4″ of snow.
Some areas to the north and west could see closer to 6″ of snow. Winter Storm watches are up for the Poconos where these higher amounts will fall.
The the polar vortex makes a return visit to our area. As cold as it will be the second half of this week, it will be worse in the central part of the US where wind chills could approach -60 in some areas!
Wednesday night and Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures near 0 or perhaps a little below in some areas.
Somewhat warmer air is expected for the weekend with highs on SUnday in the upper 30’s.
Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday. The warmer air will be accompanied by more wind and even a brief snow or rain shower. Monday will be seasonably cool then the fun begins on Tuesday.
An arctic cold front will pass through the area later on Tuesday. A low pressure system is forecast to form along the front and move quickly by. This may enhance the precipitation along the arctic front. On Tuesday we may see some light snow that could change to rain during the day as we warm up slightly before the frontal passage. Then the front will pass and the low pressure will come into play. We should see any rain or mixed precipitation change back to snow. Right now is looks like a nuisance event in the order of a coating to 2″.
Behind this front will be bone chilling weather similar to a week ago. High temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to get out of the teens and near 0 overnight. Thursday will be even colder during the day with temperature struggling to get out of the single digits! We should warm up a little by next weekend.
The trend in the past 12 hours has been a warmer one for the upcoming storm. Overnight temperatures did not go as low as originally thought. Current temperatures are at freezing and should rise into the mid to upper 30’s today. Even though winds are calm now, they will start blowing out of the warmer east direction. Winds above us are forecast to blow out of the warm southerly direction. All of these factory should result in us receiving less snow and more rain. The good news is this should minimize any icing risks for our area.
Another trend for less snow is short range computer models are showing the approaching snow this afternoon arriving to our north and west initially missing most of our area. The front-end of the storm is where I expected most of our accumulating snow. If this stays to our north, we will receive even less snow.
Look for light snow to move into our area later this afternoon. It could be mixing with some rain or sleet pellets at the beginning but should changeover to all snow. Then expect snow to start mixing with and then change to sleet around 9 pm. Then rain will mix in and we should be changed over to all rain before midnight with rain continuing heavy at times overnight. This timeline will be delayed further to the north.
Based on what I’m seeing now I’m going to forecast 1-3″ for southern and central locations and 3-6″ further to the north where the changeover will take longer and the snow will start earlier.
Even with this warmer forecast, we will still have a sharply colder and windy day on Sunday. Any early morning rain may change back briefly to snow and then end. Winds will pick up and the temperature will start to sharply fall as the day progresses. Look for temperatures to be in the teen by evening.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for Hunterdon county and points east. Winter storm warning for Warren and above.
I wanted to post an update based on trends and data from the past 12 hours or so. I will continue to monitor for changes today and if anything significant will past later on.
The computer weather models have trended slightly colder for our area. At the same time they are also trending more warmer air above us for a longer period of time.
So what does this all mean? I think a changeover to plain rain is reduced except for possible extreme SE locations. The NWS has extended the WInter Storm Watches to also include Upper Bucks in PA and Somerset in NJ
NWS ice forecast
But warm air above us for an extended period of time will give us a lot of sleet and possibly freezing rain.
At this time I’m still predicting 4-8″ but seriously thinking of lowering to 3-6.” Most of the snow we will fall at the beginning of the storm – from when it starts until about 1 am Sunday. The snow start time looks to be late afternoon Saturday.
I’m still looking for sharply falling temperatures Sunday afternoon and night. Precipitation could end a little sooner than originally thought on Sunday. That will be something I will be looking at along with does it change back to snow. Traditionally when storms do go from snow to rain/mix back to snow very little snow falls on the backend.
Sunday night and Monday will be brutal temperature wise with well below zero wind chills and just above zero temperature. It is January after all…
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, and Somerville 339 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible.
* WHERE…Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN…From 1PM Saturday through 7PM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult on icy and snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
The computer models for the past 24 hours have been showing slightly less moisture associated with tonight’s system – the first of two. As a result I’m changing my forecast from 1-3″ to a coating to 2.” Area to the north and higher elevations could see some amounts closer to 3″.
Look for light snow to overspread our area from 8 pm – 11 pm. Snow should continue overnight but should end by morning. Tomorrow will be a good day to clean up and get ready for round 2 as our high temperature should get to 40.
AccuWeather graphic for next storm system
The Saturday night-Sunday storm will have more moisture and energy associated with it. Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow will start in the afternoon. The front end of this storm looks to have heavy snow at times. We could even receive 1+” of snow per hour at the peak of the storm.
Then warmer air will start working in the upper atmosphere and that will first mix the snow with sleet and then freezing rain. We need to be on the watch for the potential for an extended period of icing early Sunday morning.
Depending on the exact track of the storm, some areas, especially in the couth, could even change over to rain at time Sunday morning before much, much colder air arrives by mid-day. This should change any mixed precipitation back to snow for a short time and there could be additional snow accumulations.
Coldest air of the new year arrives Sunday into Monday
The cold air is going to arrive quickly on Sunday. So fast that there could even be flash freezing. Any untreated water on walkways and roads will freeze up and ice over. The temperature could drop 20+ degrees in a few hours. Temperature should go from the low 30’s (or slightly higher where there’s rain) to near 20 by the end of the afternoon into the teens in the evening. Monday morning low should be just above zero. Wind chills on Monday will be bitter and the high temperature will struggle to get out of the single digits into the low to mid teens. Wind chills will be below zero in the morning.
Now is the time to prepare your house and car for the extreme cold weather ahead. I would avoid travel Saturday night into Monday if possible.
How much snow for Saturday into Sunday? Right now I’m leaning towards 4-8″ for our area. Some areas to our NW will be measuring snow potentially in feet, not inches. I’ll be keeping an eye on this and will update accordingly.
While driving home last night seeing the moon out and partly cloudy skies I knew it was going to be hard for the snow to our south to make its way this far north.
But it eventually made its way up north to some locations with a light coating of snow
Snow covered leaf Sunday morning January 13, 2019
The week ahead will start off cold but return to seasonable levels of temperature and precipitation
7 Day NWS forecast
There is a slight chance of snow or rain showers Thursday night into Friday morning.
Then all attention turns to the potential for a more important start next weekend. The weather models are starting to show this potential but it is still a week away and much can change between now and then. I will keep an eye on it.
NWS snow forecast overnight Sunday into Monday morning
If you haven’t been outside yet today you should. Hardly any wind, brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. It’s quite pleasant!
Clouds will be on the increase later today as a weak system approaches our area overnight. MOst of the area should receive very light precipitation – mostly a coating to 1″ of snow. Areas to the south of I-78 will see some rain mixed in. Further south than that it would be mostly rain. Further to the north, especially Sussex county you could receive closer to 2″. I like to call this “mood enhancing snow” as it won’t amount to too much and should have minimal impact to transportation. Unfortunately it should be gone by Christmas Eve night and day.
A weak low pressure system will be moving through our area late tonight into Thursday. Sometimes these systems, although weak, are sneaky and can deposit more precipitation than originally thought.
The NWS is forecasting less than 1″ for our area. This is a good forecast. There may be some areas that see a little more than this in areas where the steady snow sets up (if there is any steady snow bands). This should primarily be snow showers
After this system moves by some milder temperatures will be visiting our area. Nothing crazy warm but closer to normal if not slightly above.
Of course with the warmer temperatures comes rain. Our streak of rain free days will come to a close later Friday into Saturday. Right now we expect 1/2″ – 1″ of rain on Saturday. Rain showers may persist into Sunday but Sunday should be the better day of the weekend at this point. Next week looks to have high temperature days in the low 40’s.
To say yesterday’s snowstorm was an over-producer is an understatement. When you melt all the snow and sleet and freezing rain it totaled 1.67″ in Stewartsville. As you may recall in an earlier post only 1-1.25″ was forecast. So if this was all snow, we would have been clobbered even more.
The cold air hung on much longer than anticipated. And the snowfall rates were 2″ per hour for a time yesterday afternoon! We don’t see snowfall rates that impressives until the middle of winter!
The roads are a mess and many schools are closed. Today’s high temperature is already above freezing and should get into the low 40’s. Hopefully some good melting will take place but remember the ground is already saturated from all the recent rains. We should see sunshine today but the winds will pick up as the storm pulls away.
Good news is the weather look quiet into Thanksgiving week but it will remain on the cool side.
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