Update On Sunday-Monday Storm

31. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update On Sunday-Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Another very cold morning in western New Jersey this Saturday morning. Most stations were in the single digits with a stiff north west wind making it feel well below zero with wind chill.

I wanted to post this great graphic from the NWS that shows the different types of winter precipitation. Why? Because my forecast has some of them in it!

Recent computer modeling of the Sunday night-Monday morning storm continues to bring the storm closer to our area. This will result in the rain/mix/snow line coming very close to our area. In fact, at this time, I believe southern areas of western new Jersey will in fact switch over to a mix if not completely rain.

The NWS has placed western New Jersey in a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday evening into Monday. There current forecast for snow amounts is below:

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At this time I’m not forecasting amounts that high in southern areas of western new jersey. In these areas I’m forecasting 3-6” of snow for now with more to the north and west, especially elevated sections. In these areas I’ll forecast 6-10” at this time.

I’ll post more details Sunday morning or as time permits.

Friday Snow Shower Then Turning Windy and Sharply Colder

30. January 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Snow Shower Then Turning Windy and Sharply Colder · Categories: weather discussion

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I was out late last night and arrived home near midnight to 1/2” of snow falling at a good clip. Western New Jersey picked up about 1” of snow overnight.

Today a secondary cold front will push through the area this morning. This will bring in much colder temperatures and strong gusty winds. Once the front passes, I expect temperatures to gradually fall the rest of the day. Winds will pick up so much that the NWS has issued a wind advisory starting at 4 pm today.

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning will be another very cold morning with temperatures in the low single digits. I would not be surprised to see some temperatures at or below zero.

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then out attention turns to the next storm. It looks to arrive Sunday evening and last into Monday morning. The weather computer models have been trending more consistent lately and have also brought the storm further north. So far north that there is a rain/snow line to contend with. But I don’t think at this time it will be a factor for us. But if the trend continues it might be.

I agree with the map above from the NWS with projections on about how much snow can fall from this system. What I want to point out is this map is only until 7am Monday and snow could continue into Monday.

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The last item I want to mention is the cold pattern looks to continue well into next week. take a glance at Monday nights low! Brrr! Could be the coldest night of the winter season.

Update on Clipper for Thursday Night-Friday Morning

29. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update on Clipper for Thursday Night-Friday Morning · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , ,

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It was a very cold night in western New Jersey this morning. Many stations were in the low single digits with some below zero to the north.

A fast moving clipper system will visit the area this evening into tomorrow morning. Look for some snow showers any time after dinner. I support the above map from the NWS with a general coating to perhaps 1” or so in some area. The storm is moving fast and passing to our north so there could be some amounts closer to 2” up north.

This clipper will also be dragging another artic front through the area early Friday morning. This may result in a few more snow showers or even a brief snow squall. Then look for temperatures to drop for the remainder of the day and be extremely cold Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night.

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Out attention then turns to what will happen Sunday night into Monday. Yesterday computer guidance moved the storm further south. But then moved it back north. So we still don’t have any consistency yet. My early thoughts are the storm will have a hard time interacting with the cold air over our area so may stay to our south. We will still have an impact – just need to see how much. Details as the become available.

Clipper Thursday Then Sunday Into Monday

28. January 2015 · Comments Off on Clipper Thursday Then Sunday Into Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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After the snow storm of sorts colder and breezy conditions have moved into the area. Lows this morning in western New Jersey were generally in the upper single digits and low teens. Looks for a cold and breezy Wednesday with highs in the upper 20’s.

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Another cold night tonight with temperatures dropping to around the same levels as last night. Then on Thursday we will see increasing clouds with snow showers moving in the afternoon. Light snow will be likely on Thursday evening. At this time I expect more to the north and less to the south. Western new jersey should expect about 1” of snow – slightly more further north. Good news is the winds will die down a little from where they are today.

The I want to point out how cold it’s going to get Friday night, Saturday and even Saturday night. Friday night/Saturday morning may see the coldest low temperatures of the winter so far. We will be near zero with high Saturday only in the mid teens!

Then we need to turn our attention to Sunday night into Monday. Right now it looks like snow will start and perhaps mix with or change to rain either Sunday night or Monday morning. More information will be posted on this as we get closer. For now just keep this in mind for any Super Bowl plans/parties you may be attending.

Snow Total From January 26-27 2015

28. January 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Total From January 26-27 2015 · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

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As mentioned previously, western New Jersey received only about 3” of snow from the past system. but the storm was far from a bust elsewhere. Find you favorite city to see how much they received.

My mom lives on central Long Island. She received about 24” of snow. It took four people, 2 snow blowers 1.5 hours to clear her walks and driveway!

So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow

27. January 2015 · Comments Off on So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

Greenwich Twp Snow Photos January 27 2015

We all woke up Tuesday morning to about 3” of snow in western New Jersey give or take. So what happened? There is a storm and some areas got hit hard: Long Island, CT even NYC somewhat.

So what happened? Once the coastal storm formed and started strengthening it was about 50 miles or so further East than expected. This didn’t allow most of NJ to get into the heavy snow. The snow we did receive was during the day Monday from the initial clipper storm itself.

My theory on what helped this is as follows: Central PA received more snow from the clipper than forecasted. State College received a foot of snow! From a clipper? State College is certainly too far inland to be impacted from a coastal storm. I believe some energy remained over central PA. This combined with the rapidly developing storm over the ocean resulted in a snow “hole.” What I mean by this snow hole is as follows. Rising air is what causes clouds that ultimately turn into precipitation (very simplified). But you can’t have rising air everywhere. Someplace has to see sinking air. When air sinks is dries out and hence no or lighter precipitation. This is a common occurrence in these type of clipper storm that suddenly intensify when hitting the ocean. This was in part why I was keeping my snow totals much lower than most – even lower than the NWS.

I saw the signs late yesterday but I didn’t want to change thinking there was a chance. But the chance is gone. We will see breezy conditions develop today as the storm pulls away. We will see occasional snow showers that could result in a small additional accumulation.

Cold weather will continue all of this week – be prepared for that. Then ANOTHER clipper will move through the area fast on Thursday night into Friday morning. Don’t worry this won’t won’t be intensifying since it will be further to the North. But these types of storms, as we have seen already this winter, can drop nuisance snows.

Snowstorm Update

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Snowstorm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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I wanted to post one more update before retiring for the evening. So far western new jersey has picked up about 3” of snow. Currently it is not snowing that much in western new jersey. All of the heavy snow is east of us in NYC and Long Island. BUT it is heading this way!

The storm is having a hard time getting the snow to move west. So we may be looking at the lower end of my original forecast of 6-12” The updated NWS graphic above is closer to reality. Since we already have 3” on the ground would only need another 3” to meet the minimum range.

We have always said the heaviest part of this storm would be overnight. I have remembered several storms where it didn’t “look good” before I went to be but then woke up in the morning to witness all the snow. Not saying that will be the case this time but not willing to lower my totals at this time.

Early Afternoon Update on Storm: Impressive

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Early Afternoon Update on Storm: Impressive · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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In looking at weather data so far, I’m impressed with the storm and starting to worry that perhaps this is an over achiever for western New Jersey.

On the radar above that was taken at 2:30 pm on Monday, there is now a solid band of snow over Long Island across NYC into northern NJ. This has formed faster than I anticipated. Furthermore the band appears to be staying in place. I’m starting to wonder if this band will remain and pivot as time goes on and the storm gets closer.

Computer models continue to support the storm as is. Current observations are showing the storm has formed slightly WSW of where the computer forecasts indicated. Furthermore the upper air support may be slight more favorable as well.

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The NWS snowfall prediction from mid day is above. They are forecasting 10-14 for western New Jersey which is slightly higher than my forecast. They released a statement that a new snowfall forecast map will be released at 4pm. It will be interesting to see if there are any changes.

We also received 1.6” of new snow as of lunch time. This was a little more than what I though we would receive so early in the storm cycle.

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So as of right now I continue to support the totals show in the map above. If I continue to see signals I’m seeing now I may be increasing my totals later on. I don’t like to do that but don’t want to leave anyone “buried” if there is a change in the weather.

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Beyond this storm we will remain in an active pattern. Look for another fast moving clipper snow storm Thursday evening and night. This certainly won’t be anything impressive but will add to the cold and snow totals. There are also signs of a larger storm towards Ground Hog day…

Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

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I’m back from my trip, somewhat well-rested and have looked at some weather data. I like the map above from the National Weather Service (NWS). For western new jersey these are my thought: 6-12”of snow from west to east. A little further to the east will be 12-18”. Further to the east, extreme northeastern NJ into NYC and Long Island into new england, 18”+

This will be a cold storm with gusty winds. In fact Long Island will see some near hurricane wind gusts during the storm, hence blizzard warnings.

For western New Jersey we are under a Winter Storm Warning. Look for occasional snow today of various intensities throughout the day. The snow should become heavier and steadier as the day wears on. The worse of it should be tonight and overnight.

I’ll have other updates throughout the day as new information becomes available and time permits

Quick Sunday Night Storm Update

25. January 2015 · Comments Off on Quick Sunday Night Storm Update · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

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Folks sorry for the late post. As I mentioned in my last post I was away for the past several days on business. I’ve been up since 7am and drove from Cincinnati, OH most of the day in rain and snow and just got home before.

After looking at some data BRIEFLY, my forecast at this point for western new jersey is for less snow that you’ve probably been hearing: 6-12” of snow. This is even less that the NWS map above. What less? My gut is telling me this will be a bog storm but the heaviest precipitation will be to our east. Eastern NJ, NYC and Long Island and north east will get 1-2 FEET of snow from this easy.

I will take a look at more data in the morning and of course have an update.

I also want to point out this storm will have two phases. Overnight lighter snow will move in and give us a coating to an inch or two. It will snow on Monday light for most of the day on and off. Then as the coastal storm strengthens, the snow will increase in intensity and the winds will pick up later in the day. The worse of the storm will be Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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