23. January 2016 · Comments Off on Early Afternoon Blizzard Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

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Many areas in western New Jersey are now nearing white-out conditions. These heavy bands of snow will continue for the next several hours. This is the height of the storm from a heavy snowfall point of view. There was also a very heavy snow fall rate in the early morning hours that most of us slept through.

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The NWS has upgraded their snow totals to 24-30.” Considering we are past the half way point on the low end this is possible!

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22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Late Night Winter Storm Update · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

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As of 11:30 pm 1.5″ of snow in Stewartsville, NJ. Winds are still on the light side but that will change tomorrow. Look for snow to continue overnight heavy at times, especially from 3 am on. In these heavier bands 1-3″ of snow will fall EACH HOUR!

The storm continues to over perform. Based on latest information available I’m forecasting 8-12 in northern areas and 12-18″ in central and southern sections of western New Jersey.

the coastal low pressure is starting to take over and become the primary low. The storm continues to move further north that originally thought hence the higher snow totals for our area.

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Next update will be Saturday morning!

21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Latest Snow Forecast For Western New Jersey · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I’m in complete agreement with the above map from the National Weather Service in Mt Holly NJ. It shows less snow to the north and more to the south. A general 6-12″ for western New Jersey area with more to the south and less to the north.

The snow will not start until the pre-dawn hours on saturday morning. So by sun up on Saturday there may only be a coating to an inch or so on the ground. Saturday will be when the storm moves in and intensifies as it does so. It will be breezy as well with temperatures not getting above freezing in western New Jersey.

Today and Friday will be great days to prepare for the storm. Unfortunately I heard supermarkets are already busy and shovels and salt are selling like hot cakes on Sunday morning. This of course is to be expected for a January snow storm – especially the first one.

Look for the snow to not end until the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The winds will remain brisk if not full fledged windy so that will make cleanup all the harder.

You may have heard that eastern NJ and NYC has issued a blizzard watch. Why not here? That’s because they are closer to the coast and the winds will be higher. A blizzard does not mean more snow necessarily – it focuses more on reduced visibility from blowing and drifting snow over several hours. There is also blizzard watch in Washington DC area for the same reasons.

If you have any interests along the coast, there will be coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40-60 mph. There could be some rain or sleet mixed in at times along the shore.

I will update when I have something to share during the day today and tomorrow and throughout the storm on Saturday (provided power and internet cooperate 😉

19. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Watch Now In Effect · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

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Good Tuesday afternoon. Western New Jersey is continuing with winter-like conditions for a change. Blustery and chilly this afternoon with high temperatures once again not going above freezing.

Wednesday will be a little warmer with high temperatures in the 30’s. Thursday could feature some morning flurries but will be another day with high temperatures in the seasonable 30’s

Then our attention turns to the weekend. As discussed yesterday a storm system approaching the west coast will make its way across the US reaching our area later Friday evening into the weekend. Computer models, a tool that meteorologist use to forecast the weather in the future, continue to indicate this storm will impact our area with significance.

So hence forth the french toast watch is not in effect. This could be upgraded to a warning in 1-2 days. So start thinking about gathering your comfort feeds, milk, bread and eggs. I’m sure based on the hype in the media for this storm, the supermarkets will start getting busy on Wednesday and will be full bore crazy on Thursday!

 

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Mid Day Storm Update · Categories: precipitation, snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

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5.3” of new snow in Stewartsville as of 11:30 am. We have one more heavy band of snow to push through the area then hopefully the snow should start to lighten up this afternoon. Since my initial forecast of 3-6” has busted, I’ll now go for 6-10” and hope I don’t bust again! There is a very good chance sections to the south and east will get a foot of snow. Further to the north they are not getting as much snow.

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Another thing I want to point out is the temperature is much colder than it was this morning so please keep that in mind when removing the snow this afternoon – as well as breezy conditions. We are now in the upper teens in western New Jersey!

red=air temperature green=dew point

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Updated Radar of Heavy Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

Heavy snow rates approaching 2"/hr in southern PA

Just after I published my last post I noticed this green echo on the weather radar. That is snow approaching 2”/hr! Lucky for us that will stay to our South.

You can also see here the dark blues to the west of western NJ that are moving in our direction. We finally get to use all the bread, milk, eggs and cans of soup we’ve been stockpiling all season! Smile

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Mid Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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4” of new snow has already fallen in Stewartsville as of 10:20 this morning. It’s been snowing moderately to occasionally heavy most of the morning. At the very least, I think we will be at the high end of my 3-6” forecast. There will be locations (perhaps many of us) that will go over 6” before all said and done. The NWS sees this trend too and raised the Winter Weather advisory that was previously in effect for Warren county NJ to a Winter Storm Warning and forecasting 4-8” of snow. Hunterdon county was already in a Winter Storm Warning.

In looking at the radar above, most of the echo’s are moving to the ENE. The back edge of the line to the north is also moving SLOWLY to the SE. There are still plenty of areas of darker blue heading our way from eastern PA. These will give us 1”/hour snow rates at time late morning into the early afternoon.

I still think the snow will lighten up this afternoon but it doesn’t appear to be in any rush to do so…

26. January 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

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I’m back from my trip, somewhat well-rested and have looked at some weather data. I like the map above from the National Weather Service (NWS). For western new jersey these are my thought: 6-12”of snow from west to east. A little further to the east will be 12-18”. Further to the east, extreme northeastern NJ into NYC and Long Island into new england, 18”+

This will be a cold storm with gusty winds. In fact Long Island will see some near hurricane wind gusts during the storm, hence blizzard warnings.

For western New Jersey we are under a Winter Storm Warning. Look for occasional snow today of various intensities throughout the day. The snow should become heavier and steadier as the day wears on. The worse of it should be tonight and overnight.

I’ll have other updates throughout the day as new information becomes available and time permits

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