Tuesday Morning Update

10. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

image

Western new jersey received anywhere from a coating to 1/2” of sleet and snow mostly last evening. Most locations did receive a coating of ice s well which resulted in no school yesterday and delays this morning.

Today will be a rather nice day. Mostly cloudy skies should become partly cloudy and temperatures should make it to the mid 30’s. This should help with some snow and ice melt. Tomorrow should be similar but a little cooler. Then our attention turns to another clipper and artic front on Thursday. We have seen this, on Thursdays, quite a bit this winter season. Look for it to bring a coating to 2” of snow to the area and then back in the freezer with Friday and Saturday morning lows near 0 and Friday highs in the mid teens. Saturday will stay in the low 20’s. Another fast moving clipper will move into the area on Saturday giving us another shot of light snow. Some of the forecast models allow this clipper to develop while others say no. So like everything this winter we will need to keep an eye on it.

10957552_861675030542751_5223941166574820591_n

If anyone thinks the weather will warm up anytime soon think again. The 6-10 day temperature outlook released yesterday should the entire eastern seaboard in much below temperatures. Just think of how warm a day in the 40’s will feel when it finally gets here!!

Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday

09. February 2015 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

20150209_072343

Monday morning update for western new jersey has most area schools closed today. Light rain started over night and transitioned to freezing rain and sleet as the temperature slowly dropped. Most untreated surfaces are slipper as seen in the above photo.

image

I was impressed with the steady rain of temperature decline since midnight. In researching this further and looking at overnight observation the colder air actually came in from the east and north. Portions of long island were colder than NJ. And now NJ is colder than portions of PA. This will all even out as the coastal storm strengthens.

As this trend continues today, we will see more sleet than freezing rain. Then some light snow will transition in this afternoon. I still expect only a coating to perhaps 2” in most areas. Northern sections of western new jersey will experience slightly more snow as they will have cold longer.

image

After today conditions improve. Tuesday we should see temperatures back up above freezing. Then another artic front will pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a little light snow but also the return of very cold air – perhaps the coldest of the season. Hopefully I’ll be able to stop saying that soon…

Winter Storm Update for Monday

08. February 2015 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Update for Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

10171244_925583107461024_6365667829035006741_n10924695_925583104127691_7670384373311748943_n

Sunday will remain mostly cloudy and rather mild in western new jersey today with high temperatures around 40. There is some light scattered rain falling but is not reaching the ground since it’s still too dry outside.

I expect light scattered rain showers to move into the area this evening and overnight. I expect our temperatures to remain above freezing until at least the early morning commute on Monday. This means that any precipitation that falls should be mainly rain. Since the colder air, which is slow to arrive is coming from the north, these locations may see a wintry mix by morning rush. Then during the day Monday I see mostly light precipitation that will be either rain and rain transitioning to a wintry mix. I do not see a lot of precipitation on Monday during the day. Then as colder air continues to come in from the north, by Monday evening we should see more in the way of a light snowfall. I’m forecasting a coating to 2” with more to the north.

The NWS has our area under a winter weather advisory from tonight thru early Tuesday morning. The maps above reflect their thinking on how much ice and snow western new jersey should receive.

Regarding school on Monday, at this point its too early to call. I certainly hope its not one of those situations where they close school and then there is only light on and off precipitation during the day with temperatures near or slightly above freezing.

Weekend Update

07. February 2015 · Comments Off on Weekend Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

10959444_925065970846071_3400870715835500071_n

Saturday morning is starting off cloudy in western new jersey. Don’t be surprised if you see a few snow flurries this morning. A disturbance is passing to our north and producing some light snow. Most of this is not reaching the ground since it’s so dry outside.

Saturday will remain cloudy with highs in the mid 30’s. The weekend should remain precipitation free until later Sunday night. We then expect rain or a wintry mix to start lightly and continue into Monday. As colder air arrives on Monday, the wintry mix may change to snow and give us a light accumulation before ending. Right now that looks to be a coating to 1-2”

image

Looking down the road the rest of the week should be dry and only slightly below normal temperatures. The another artic front will push thru the area giving us once again very cold temperatures Friday into next weekend.

National Weatherperson Day

05. February 2015 · Comments Off on National Weatherperson Day · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

image

Happy National Weatherperson Day! For more information on the history of national weather person’s day follow this link.

Another artic cold front moved through western new jersey this morning by sunup and dropped about 1/2” of snow in the area. Temperatures did not rise too much after than and dropped for most of the day. By the evening commute temperatures are near 20 degrees! Tonight will be possibly the coldest night of the winter so far with low temperatures approaching zero.

Friday will be another cold day similar to this past Tuesday. Friday night won’t be quite as cold as tonight and the winds should diminish making it feel nicer. Saturday will have more clouds than sun but temperatures’ should rise to the mid to upper 30’s in our area.

Here’s the synopsis of what will happen Sunday into Tuesday. The artic front that passed through the area this morning will stall south of our area. Warmer air in advance of another storm system in the upper plains will bring in some precipitation on Sunday. This could arrive as early as Saturday night – timing to be determined. Sunday will feature a mix of snow, sleet and perhaps even rain. Since warm air will still be pumped in the upper layers of the atmosphere above us, we may even see rain in southern sections for a time. Then as the storm reaches the coast and intensifies, it will bring colder air into the area Sunday evening into Monday. It’s this time period that hold the greatest potential for our area to receive snow from this system.

One thing I want to point out is the heavier amounts of precipitation (snow) will fall to our north – primarily north of interstate 80. Computer model trends have been keeping it up there and in some cases moving it north – so this will be something to keep an eye on. If the precipitation moved too far north we will be warmer and receive less snow.

The situation should become clearer tomorrow.

Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow

04. February 2015 · Comments Off on Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

10269054_1004868952876027_6818231958384490339_o

Only far northern sections of western New Jersey saw any light snow or flurries this morning as an upper air disturbance passes north of the area. Once this clears skies should turn party sunny and warmer! We may approach 40 degrees this afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts as colder weather is on the way. Another artic front will approach the area Thursday morning and bring with it a period of light snow or snow showers that should generally leave behind a dusting to 1”. Once again more should fall to our north as seen in the map above.

image

Thursday night/Friday morning will be very cold with temperatures in the low single digits. Friday will be a very cold winter day similar to yesterday. then we moderate a bit on Saturday. Then another system approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday. There are several possibilities as what will happen with the next system so more information will be posted as we get closer. the cold and active storm pattern looks to continue easily into next week.

Tuesday Morning Update

03. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

sfcmap

Some clouds moved into the area towards morning and stopped temperatures from dropping into the single digits. Regardless western new jersey saw morning lows in the low teens. Tuesday will be a cold and chilly day with high temperatures remaining in the 20’s. Tonight we will see an increase in clouds as a weak clipper system passes well to our north. There is a chance northern section could see some flurries or snow showers that can leave a coating of snow.

image

Wednesday is shaping up to be a nice break in winter weather with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s! Good chance to get out and shovel/scrap any snow that got left behind from recent storms. Then a cold front will be approaching the area on Thursday morning that will give us some light snow. At this time it looks like only a coating to perhaps 1”. Then back in the freezer on Friday. Next potential for significant winter weather will be the second half of the weekend.

Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

10563222_10152739162622903_1065239610865732145_n

Update on the storm. It has been snowing lightly in western New Jersey since about 5:30 pm this evening. As of 10:45 pm there is approximately 1” of new snow on the ground.

Based on observations and radar, my forecast is adjusted downward for 1-3” of snow before we start to mix with sleet and freezing rain (by 3am) and then change over to rain by 6-8am. The above map, a revised snowfall forecast by NWS, is supported by me. More snow will fall to the north and west and less to the south and east. As you go north, you will see 3-8” of snow before mixing.

Storm Update

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Storm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

10955692_1003254689704120_458839490317940802_o

I have limited time today due to photography and a big football game tonight Smile. I’ll post an update this evening if warranted.

We are starting off our Sunday morning in western New Jersey already cloudy. Snow light snow that is probably not reaching the ground is already falling in portions of western PA. Look for some light snow or snow showers to arrive by late afternoon or early evening. It should be snowing everywhere before the “big game” is over.

We will start off as all snow. Snow will become moderate to perhaps heavy at times late at night into the early morning hours. This is when I expect most of the accumulating snow to fall. I agree with the NWS map above. For western New Jersey my forecast is 3-6” of snow. More snow will fall in northern sections where the snow does not mix as much with sleet and freezing rain.

1463174_921655064520495_5479998869282809223_n

A growing concern with the storm is an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. I expect them to start mixing in our area in the early morning hours on Monday with a complete changeover before sunrise. It’s not out of the question that some part of our area could changeover to all rain at some point. This will primarily be southern and eastern sections.

The above map is a forecasted ice amount from the NWS. I agree with the amounts here. Even though warmer air will be moving into the area and will be responsible for changing our snow to frozen precipitation, we have been cold lately and untreated surfaces will remain below freezing for a while if not the entire duration of the storm.

There is a chance the mixed precipitation could mix back with snow and perhaps change back to all snow on Monday before the storm ends.

So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow

27. January 2015 · Comments Off on So What Happened? Only 2-3” Of Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

Greenwich Twp Snow Photos January 27 2015

We all woke up Tuesday morning to about 3” of snow in western New Jersey give or take. So what happened? There is a storm and some areas got hit hard: Long Island, CT even NYC somewhat.

So what happened? Once the coastal storm formed and started strengthening it was about 50 miles or so further East than expected. This didn’t allow most of NJ to get into the heavy snow. The snow we did receive was during the day Monday from the initial clipper storm itself.

My theory on what helped this is as follows: Central PA received more snow from the clipper than forecasted. State College received a foot of snow! From a clipper? State College is certainly too far inland to be impacted from a coastal storm. I believe some energy remained over central PA. This combined with the rapidly developing storm over the ocean resulted in a snow “hole.” What I mean by this snow hole is as follows. Rising air is what causes clouds that ultimately turn into precipitation (very simplified). But you can’t have rising air everywhere. Someplace has to see sinking air. When air sinks is dries out and hence no or lighter precipitation. This is a common occurrence in these type of clipper storm that suddenly intensify when hitting the ocean. This was in part why I was keeping my snow totals much lower than most – even lower than the NWS.

I saw the signs late yesterday but I didn’t want to change thinking there was a chance. But the chance is gone. We will see breezy conditions develop today as the storm pulls away. We will see occasional snow showers that could result in a small additional accumulation.

Cold weather will continue all of this week – be prepared for that. Then ANOTHER clipper will move through the area fast on Thursday night into Friday morning. Don’t worry this won’t won’t be intensifying since it will be further to the North. But these types of storms, as we have seen already this winter, can drop nuisance snows.

« Older articles
Newer articles »
Animated Social Media Icons by Acurax Responsive Web Designing Company
Visit Us On TwitterVisit Us On FacebookVisit Us On PinterestVisit Us On YoutubeVisit Us On Instagram