Mid Day Storm Update

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Mid Day Storm Update · Categories: precipitation, snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

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5.3” of new snow in Stewartsville as of 11:30 am. We have one more heavy band of snow to push through the area then hopefully the snow should start to lighten up this afternoon. Since my initial forecast of 3-6” has busted, I’ll now go for 6-10” and hope I don’t bust again! There is a very good chance sections to the south and east will get a foot of snow. Further to the north they are not getting as much snow.

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Another thing I want to point out is the temperature is much colder than it was this morning so please keep that in mind when removing the snow this afternoon – as well as breezy conditions. We are now in the upper teens in western New Jersey!

red=air temperature green=dew point

Updated Radar of Heavy Snow

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Updated Radar of Heavy Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

Heavy snow rates approaching 2"/hr in southern PA

Just after I published my last post I noticed this green echo on the weather radar. That is snow approaching 2”/hr! Lucky for us that will stay to our South.

You can also see here the dark blues to the west of western NJ that are moving in our direction. We finally get to use all the bread, milk, eggs and cans of soup we’ve been stockpiling all season! Smile

Thursday Mid Morning Update

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Mid Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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4” of new snow has already fallen in Stewartsville as of 10:20 this morning. It’s been snowing moderately to occasionally heavy most of the morning. At the very least, I think we will be at the high end of my 3-6” forecast. There will be locations (perhaps many of us) that will go over 6” before all said and done. The NWS sees this trend too and raised the Winter Weather advisory that was previously in effect for Warren county NJ to a Winter Storm Warning and forecasting 4-8” of snow. Hunterdon county was already in a Winter Storm Warning.

In looking at the radar above, most of the echo’s are moving to the ENE. The back edge of the line to the north is also moving SLOWLY to the SE. There are still plenty of areas of darker blue heading our way from eastern PA. These will give us 1”/hour snow rates at time late morning into the early afternoon.

I still think the snow will lighten up this afternoon but it doesn’t appear to be in any rush to do so…

Thursday Morning Snow Update

05. March 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Morning Snow Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

Winter wonderland in Western New Jersey Thursday morning

Western New Jersey picked up between 1.5 and 2” of snow overnight. 1.6” of new snow fell in Stewartsville. Looking out the window this morning reveals a winter wonderland. Since it was raining before the snow, the snow stuck to everything. Schools are closed once again (in some cases, especially PA, two days in a row).

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Today we will see snow of various intensities. At times it will just be flurries then other times it will come down moderate to heavy. It will be during these heavier periods where we will pick up additional amounts of snow. My forecast for western New Jersey is still 3.6.” Less to the north and more to the south. I expect the snow to start tapering off just after lunch with flurries and snow showers the remained of the afternoon. The wind will pick up today and it will turn record breaking cold tonight (low single digits) so it will be important to clear the driveway and walks today.

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What’s ahead? After a cold Friday and Saturday morning, a break! It looks nice with temperatures APPROACHING normal! There may be a snow shower late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. It looks dry thru Wednesday with 40’s as high temperatures! Perhaps this is the light at the end of the winter tunnel!

Wednesday Evening Update on Thursday Snow

04. March 2015 · Comments Off on Wednesday Evening Update on Thursday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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I just finished looking at the latest weather data for our next snow maker. Some of it is pointing to less snow, and some of it says more. So I’m going to hold course and continue my 3-6” forecast for western New Jersey. It looks like heavier amounts of snow will fall from southern Hunterdon county on south. Specifically I-195 on south except right near the coast.

The NWS map above shows the minimum and maximum they are forecasting. There is potential for us to go over the 6” I’m forecasting. If we do it will be the single largest snowfall we’ve had this season!

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Rain has resumed  as of 8pm. Temperatures are starting to fall from the daytime high of 44. We are now down to 38 degrees and falling:

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I expect sleet and wet snow to start mixing in before midnight and to change over completely not to far after that.

I’ll update again in the morning.

Initial Thoughts on Thursday Snow

04. March 2015 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts on Thursday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

imageNWS Snow Forecast for Thursday A quick update this morning as I have a busy day planned. Yesterday afternoon and evening western New Jersey received 0.5″ snow followed by 0.4″ of sleet. We slowly transitioned to freezing rain then rain. We also have some fog.

We will continue to have light rain on and off most of the day into this evening. Mid to late evening tonight the rain will start mixing with sleet then snow then changeover completely by midnight. I still believe most of the heavier snow will fall to our south. At this time I’m forecasting 3-6″ of snow overnight and Thursday. There will be more in southern sections and less in the far north.

 

Sleet Changed to Freezing Rain

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Sleet Changed to Freezing Rain · Categories: precipitation, snow, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

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temperature now up to 28 degrees and *slowly* climbing in western New Jersey. Hopefully by 1 am will be above freezing and can have plain rain. 0.9” total of snow and sleet.

Heavy Sleet Now In Western New Jersey

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Heavy Sleet Now In Western New Jersey · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Even though this radar image above does not show us in the pink/red, heavy sleet is now falling in most locations of western New Jersey as of 4:30 pm. Stewartsville received 1/2” snow before the changeover.

Now a waiting game to see when warmer air makes it down to the surface and switches us to rain. This may not be until after midnight.

Roads are getting very slippery!

The Thursday event now looks like the heaviest snow will once again be to our south. But we will still see some. More details later.

Light Snow Started

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Light Snow Started · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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In what has become a very familiar site in western New Jersey this winter, light snow has begun to fall in the area again. The light snow started around 1:15 pm.

The snow may pick up in intensity as the afternoon wears on. Now that we are in a stronger March sun angle, snow may not stick to untreated surfaces until later in the afternoon or early evening.

But that is the time we should start transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. The hopefully plain rain later tonight as we slowly climb above freezing.

Be safe on the roads this afternoon and evening!

Busy Three Days of Weather!

03. March 2015 · Comments Off on Busy Three Days of Weather! · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , ,

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Skies are now mostly cloudy in western New Jersey this Tuesday morning. We will see the clouds thicken up and lower as the day moves on. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 30. Look for snow to move into our area between 3-5 pm. Most locations will receive a coating to 2” of snow this evening before it changes over to sleet then freezing rain. Speaking of changeover, I believe this will happen quickly this evening. We could start seeing sleet mixing in as early as 7pm. Then it will become a complete wintry mix including freezing rain. Then we start the waiting game: how fast will the surface temperature rise so we can switch from freezing rain to plain rain. This could happen as early as 10 pm or as late as after midnight.

We will have periods of rain late night into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer with a high in the low 40’s.

Then round two starts. Colder air will start working into our area Wednesday evening and night. This will eventually mix the rain with sleet. Then we will transition to snow and it looks to continue into Thursday. This will be a battle between how fast the cold air arrives while the precipitation stays around. Right now computer models are suggesting we have the potential for an additional 3-6” late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I’ll focus more on this once we get tonight’s weather out of the way.

Then colder Thursday night (single digits) then we have what looks like a nice stretch of dry weather Friday into Monday!

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