Storm Analysis Tonight Into Monday Morning

11. December 2016 · Comments Off on Storm Analysis Tonight Into Monday Morning · Categories: precipitation, snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

Well it finally looks and feels like December! Here are some reasons this will NOT be a big snow producer for western New Jersey:

1. A warm front is approaching the area. This means once the front passes, we will get warm and the frozen precipitation will turn to rain eventually
2. The main storm system is going to go to our north and west, meaning we will be on the “warm” side of the storm
3. There is no cold high pressure to our north pumping in colder air

NWS expected snow fall

NWS expected snow fall

With the above in mind this is what will happen in western New Jersey. Periods of light snow will overspread the area this afternoon. This could start as early as mid day in some part of the area but most of that should stay to our west. We could see a coating on the ground from this.

Then there will be a break in the precipitation until the storm get closer to our area. The precipitation should resume mid to late evening and continue overnight.

I expect light snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain before eventually changing to plain rain by Monday morning. This transition will happen faster in southern and lower elevation areas. Areas further north and more elevated areas will see the transition take longer.

In southern warren county, central and southern hunterdon counties I expect a coating to 1″ of snow before changing over to mix then rain. North of that area up to and perhaps just a little bit further north of I-80 I can see 1-3″ of light snow. North of that has the potential for 3-6″ before the changeover.

There could be some light ice buildup during the changeover period so be aware of that.

The Monday morning commute will need some extra travel time so please allow for it.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather advisory starting at 1 pm today lasting into tomorrow.

More Rain and Snow For Tuesday

05. December 2016 · Comments Off on More Rain and Snow For Tuesday · Categories: Fall, snow, winter · Tags: , , ,

stormtotalsnowweb

Look for sun to give way to increasing clouds on Tuesday in western New Jersey. Precipitation should arrive before the evening rush hour. I expect this system to be primarily a rain event along the I-78 corridor. Further to the north, there will be colder air and there could be some sleet and wet snow mixed in at the beginning of the storm.

The above snow forecast map from the Nation Weather Service, only has measurable snow around and north of I-80.

We need to keep an eye on how much cold air get drawn into this system. There are some computer models that are suggesting more wintry weather may happen for a little while further to the south, especially in the beginning. I’ll keep an eye on this tomorrow and will post updates as appropriate.

First Snow of December

05. December 2016 · Comments Off on First Snow of December · Categories: Fall, snow · Tags: , , ,

20161205_074057

The first snow of December is in the books. This is our second snowfall of the fall. 1/2″ was recorded in Stewartsville, NJ. I’ve seen reports of as much as 1.5″ in High Point NJ.

Take a picture if you like snow on the ground becasue it won’t last long. Rain returns later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Then colder air arrives later in the week.

Light Snow Potential Monday Morning

04. December 2016 · Comments Off on Light Snow Potential Monday Morning · Categories: snow · Tags: , , ,

stormtotalsnowweb1

A relatively weak system will be moving into the western New Jersey area later Sunday evening into the overnight hours and Monday morning. Initially temperatures may be warm enough to produce some cold rain showers. As the precipitation picks up a little and the atmosphere cools down, we should see this change over to light wet snow.

How much? Right now it looks like a coating to 1″ in most of the area. Further to the north and in elevated areas (> 1000′) you may see 1-2″ of snow.

namsnow-2-900x400

Certainly not a crippling event BUT it will be the first event of the season and Monday morning commutes are stressful enough as it is.

But it is December and will be seeing more of this potential in the weeks ahead. The rest of the mid week will feature on and off light chances of rain. Then the coldest air of the season arrives late Thursday into next weekend. The weather pattern looks to turn active! Who’s happy about that?

Where Has Spring Gone?

07. April 2016 · Comments Off on Where Has Spring Gone? · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,
Snow falls on Spring flowers in April 2016

After a warm start, spring in western New Jersey has turned cold and in some cases snowy!

Rain is overspreading western New Jersey this Thursday morning. Look for rain to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Good news is it will be warmer today with high temperatures in the upper 50’s. We also do need the rain!

The rain should not last too long and looks to taper off to showers tonight. We should receive 1/2″ – 1″ of rain in the area.

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Friday will features some showers and be not too bad. Then another system crosses into the area later Friday night into Saturday and ushers in even colder air for this time of year. Look for a period of wet snow on Saturday that could whiten the ground in some locations – especially elevated areas!

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (5)

 

Light Snow Over For Western New Jersey

04. March 2016 · Comments Off on Light Snow Over For Western New Jersey · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags:

About 1/2

Light snow in Stewartsville March 4, 2016

About 1/2″ of new snow was reported in Stewartsville Friday morning. The snow has just about moved out of the area and we will see some sunshine later today. The winds will pick up as the storm intensifies as it heads out to sea.

Western New Jersey could see a similar light dusting late Saturday night and Sunday morning as another fast moving clipper system passes through the area. Then we turn on the warmers and will see temperatures at 60 or above Monday!

Winter’s Last Gasp On Friday?

02. March 2016 · Comments Off on Winter’s Last Gasp On Friday? · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

StormTotalSnowWeb (1)

Winter appears to have one more show for us. Today’s gusty winds are bringing back colder more seasonable weather to western New Jersey. In fact it will be quite chilly tonight and tomorrow. Look for light snow to develop Thursday night and last into Friday. Initially temperatures will be cold enough for all snow but on Friday we will go above freezing so if it continues it should mix with some rain, especially in southern locations. Plus the March sun will go to work on surfaces and prevent any additional accumulation.

For western New Jersey I like the idea of a coating to an inch or two. This will mostly be on colder, grassy surfaces. I don’t anticipate any additional accumulation once sunup is reached on Friday.

For those ready for Spring, we should get a real nice preview of it next week!

Winter Weather Advisory for Western New Jersey Monday

14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory for Western New Jersey Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: 
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
312 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY LATE MORNING MID MORNING MONDAY AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND THEN
  CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
  FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
  BY TUESDAY MORNING.

  EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD, IN THE SINGLE
  DIGITS AND TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
  INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STEADY OR CONTINUE
  TO RISE MONDAY NIGHT.


* MAIN IMPACT...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND AROUND
  0.25 INCHES OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday

14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , , ,
Frigid start to Valentine's Day in western new Jersey

Frigid start to Valentine’s Day 2016 in western New Jersey

The official low temperature in Stewartsville was 0 this morning. I’m sure there were several stations further north and west in western New Jersey that were -5 to -10 this morning. Brrr!

NWS "most likely" snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

NWS “most likely” snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

We will have another cold night tonight but not as bad as last night. Winds have slacked off and will go calm this evening. For the first part of tonight, look for temperatures to fall sharply. They should start to level off as high thin clouds begin to increase as the result of our next weather maker.

Look for light snow to overspread the western New Jersey area by mid day on Monday. Snow should be light to moderate at time Monday afternoon into the evening. At this time I’m forecasting 1-3″ of snow before a change over to ice and rain. Higher numbers will be to the north and west and less to the south and east.

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

Believe it or not, even with all this frigid air over our area now we are talking about rain on Tuesday. A storm is expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday and either go over us or more likely to our West. That will put western New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. Look for snow Monday evening and overnight to first mix with sleet and freezing rain then change completely over to rain before Tuesday morning. rain on Tuesday could be heavy at times with 1-2″ of rain forecast. This could result in some street and river flooding since the ground is so frozen right now.

Looking longer range we warm up a little by the weekend and that will continue into next week but colder weather looks to return the last week of the month

 

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY

12. February 2016 · Comments Off on WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

Last warning: It’s going to be a FRIGID weekend – especially Saturday. Bundle up!

236 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM
EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, A LARGE
  PORTION OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND
  CENTRAL PORTION OF DELAWARE.

* WIND CHILL...10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
  MPH GUSTING TO NEARLY 40 MPH.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS LATE
  SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST VALUES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE
  SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING DANGEROUS
  LEVELS. THE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT
  IN HYPOTHERMIA IF CARE IS NOT TAKEN TO STAY WARM AND SHELTERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.
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