Tuesday storm upgraded to Blizzard Warning

13. March 2017 · Comments Off on Tuesday storm upgraded to Blizzard Warning · Categories: snow · Tags:

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm Warning for western New Jersey to a Blizzard warning. As impressive as that sounds (and it is) the only real difference between the two is the amount of sustained wind you receive. Technically a blizzard has 3 consecutive hours of steady 35 mph winds, reduced visibility due to falling AND blowing snow.

Most of the computer model this morning has suggested the storm will be more intense. This has lead to the NWS to increase their prediction to 18-24.” At this point I’m going to do the same. We can and do get that much snow from strong storms in western New Jersey so this may be added to the list.

 

 

...Blizzard Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* Locations...eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New   Jersey.

* Hazard types...heavy snow and strong winds.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. 

* Timing...snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest   to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times 
  with snowfall rates of three to four inches per hour for   several hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the 
  day Tuesday.

* Impacts...the heavy snow will make many roads impassable and   may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the 
  snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to   blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power 
  outages. 

* Winds...northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Visibilities...less than one-quarter mile for several hours. 

* Temperatures...in the mid 20s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...stay with your vehicle.

Winter Storm Warnings Issued for Tuesday Storm

12. March 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warnings Issued for Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags:

Based on everything I’ve seen so far today, I’m maintaining my 10-18″ forecast for snow from the Tuesday storm. There may even be some sections that see MORE than that amount in western New Jersey!

The NWS forecast is for 8-18″ which is in line with my thinking.

Sunday Look At Tuesday Storm

12. March 2017 · Comments Off on Sunday Look At Tuesday Storm · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Unseasonably cold weather continues this weekend in western New Jersey. This will continue for most if not all of the week ahead.

Computer model forecasting continues to show a substantial snow storm for western New Jersey for very late Monday evening into most of Tuesday. The map above is a forecast from one of the many computer models meteorologists use as tools to forecast weather.

Tuesday storm will be composed of two factors, one storm that is now in the Pacific NW and the second a tropical low disturbance down in the gulf states. These two are predicted to interact with each other off the mid Atlantic coast up into the north east.

Of course everyone wants to know how much snow. In such a dynamic storm like this one will be almost always banding of precipitation sets up. If you are in a band for a considerable amount of time precipitation can be falling at extremely heavy rates. Meanwhile where there is no banding and only lighter precipitation is falling, it’s a much different story. You can see some examples of that in the map above. Looks at the dark blues in western New Jersey compared to the light blue in parts of eastern PA.

So in a storm that has bands of precipitation, depending on where the storm moves, also determines where the bands of precipitation set up.

Based on everything I’m seeing now I’m predicting that western New Jersey will receive 10-18″ from Tuesday’s storm. I dislike putting out such a wide range in amounts but at this time its the best call. The NWS map above agrees with this thinking and says 12-14″ is “likely” for western New Jersey.

Timing: snow doesn’t look to start in our area, at this time, until around midnight Monday night. It should be somewhat light at the beginning. But then will get heavier and steadier overnight and last into a good portion of Tuesday.

Our NWS has places western New Jersey under a Winter Storm Watch for this event. Further to the east in NE New Jersey, NYC and Long Island a Blizzard watch is in effect. So that tells us this storm will have gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

can things change before the storm? Absolutely. If and when they do I’ll post updates here or on the Facebook page.

Initial Thoughts On Snow Next Week

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Snow Next Week · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

By now word is spreading on social media that we are having a big snowstorm next Tuesday. And it could very well happen. I just wanted to post something today with initial thoughts on the storm. Yes it can happen. Computer models have been showing this storm now for the last several days which is a good sign of consistency. Of course that doesn’t mean it will happen. It’s still 3-4 days out. The image above is an official forecast issued by the NWS.

One computer model forecast of Tuesday outcome

One computer model forecast of Tuesday outcome

I believe there will be a storm LATE on Monday night into most of Tuesday. The details just need to be worked out. Those details won’t be known until we have a better understanding of the exact track of the storm. If it follows the track and intensity shown on several computer models today, it will be a significant storm.

As is the case with these storms there are several possibilities: 1) go further out to sea 2) go further inland and give us more mix and rain 3) be weaker than forecast and so on and so on.

So at this point, keep the potential in your plans for next week that we might have a disruptive storm on Tuesday. I’ll post more on the storm over the weekend as time permits.

Friday Snow Totals

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Snow Totals · Categories: snow · Tags:
© 2017 Dave Dabour

© 2017 Dave Dabour

4.3″ snow total in Stewartsville. This was below my forecast of 1-3″. In retrospect I should have extended my 3-6″ forecast for northern areas further south.

Here are some snow totals in western New Jersey:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   RINGOES                4.2  1154 AM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   THREE BRIDGES          3.5  1201 PM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   READINGTON             2.8  1150 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER


...MORRIS COUNTY...
   KINNELON               5.0   142 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GREEN POND             5.0   140 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 ENE JEFFERSON TWP    4.0  1045 AM  3/10  COCORAHS
   MARCELLA               4.0  1140 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LAKE HOPATCONG         3.9  1042 AM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   BUTLER                 3.3  1206 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RANDOLPH TWP           3.0  1042 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PARSIPPANY             2.7  1254 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER


...WARREN COUNTY...
   ALLAMUCHY              4.3  1225 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.3  1154 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BROADWAY               4.0   137 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER

In PA:
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   TATAMY                 6.0   139 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UPPER NAZARETH TWP     5.0   144 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FORKS TWP              4.9   226 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BUSHKILL CENTER        4.0  1254 PM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA

Friday Mid Day Snow Update

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Mid Day Snow Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

This snow today has certainly over-performed. As of 11 am 4.3″ of snow in Stewartsville. The heavy snow band that came through about an hour ago really over-produced. I picked up over 1″ of snow per hour for 2 hours in a row! That’s impressive for this type of system in March.

The radar above shows the darker band of heavy snow moving away from western New Jersey. I anticipate the snow ending by early afternoon. Then we need to be on the lookout for snow squalls this afternoon and early evening as much colder air moves into the region.

Snow Amounts For Friday

09. March 2017 · Comments Off on Snow Amounts For Friday · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

My thoughts haven’t changed too much for Friday’s late season snow. My forecast is still a 1-3″ for western New Jersey. Less to the south and more to the north. I will add a 3-6″ band closer to I-80 and north of there. Reason being this is all starting as rain. The change to snow will occur faster up north and slower to the south.

Another factor for tomorrow is the chance for snow squalls at the end of the storm and in the afternoon. Another cold front will be following tomorrow’s storm and it looks to be accompanied by some snow squalls. Not sure if this will be a repeat of last Friday but if they materialize it could add to the snow totals some what.

What’s not changing is the well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Not getting above freezing most likely!

Then we need to continue to watch late Monday night into Tuesday. This is looking more and more like it will happen and the cold air will still be around so you know what that means…

 

Winter Returns In March

09. March 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Returns In March · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: ,

The windy weather of yesterday and today tell us a change is a coming. Today’s relatively balmy conditions will not be experienced again for a while. The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for all of western New Jersey as seen in the purple in the map above.

Look for clouds to increase later today and tonight. It will be warm enough to have the precipitation start off as rain late tonight and early tomorrow morning. As colder air continues to move into our area the rain should change to a mix and then all snow.

My forecast is for 1-3″ of snow in southern sections of western New Jersey with perhaps a little more up to the north and in any elevated areas. There will be more accumulation on colder, grassy surfaces than on roads. I do expect the roads to get covered a little since it will be snowing before sun up and could come down moderate at times. My snow forecast is a little lower than what is seen on the NWS map above.

The snow should taper off to snow showers in the afternoon and then the chill sets in. We will not get above freezing all weekend! Keep in mind our normal daytime high is now approaching 47 degrees. We will most likely not see high temperatures in the 40’s for at least a week!

March Roller Coaster Weather Continues

07. March 2017 · Comments Off on March Roller Coaster Weather Continues · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Spring and fall can feature variables in the weather. So far this month is showing signs of not disappointing. After a very cold weekend, we are starting to rebound to warmer weather today. We should get into the 50’s today and tomorrow. Remember the average high this time of year is about 46 and climbing.

With warmer weather brings rain as is evident this morning. Western New Jersey is receiving light rain this morning. Look for this to taper to showers this afternoon. This is the warm front passing through our area. A cold front will pass through later tonight and be accompanied by some additional rain and perhaps even a rumble of thunder.

And then what?

Well some unseasonable cold weather is heading to western New Jersey. Thursday will be a transition day with temperatures mostly in the 40’s as cold air filters into our area. A weak system will be approaching from the west that can give is some light precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time is looks like it could be cold enough for a wintry mix and snow (especially to the north).

This will clear our Friday afternoon and more cold air comes into our region. Saturday looks similar to last Saturday with temperatures struggling to get above the freezing mark. We all knew we were going to have pay back for all that unusual warmth last month!

And then what?

Another more potent storm system looks to be approaching our area from the south and west. As of right now it appears we will be on the colder side of the storm. The big question is how far north does it get. Will we be on the northern fringe or will we feel the full impacts? Traditionally this winter when computer models show a system impacting areas to our south in advance, tend to migrate to the north as the event nears. Let’s see if that happens with this one. As a result Sunday has the potential to be a wintry day. How wintry? It could be enough to remind us it’s still winter. If everything comes together it could be a plow-able event. Keep in mind it can snow in March. Ironically this Sunday, March 13 is the anniversary of a famous super storm that impacted the east coast in 1993. No this will not be that but it could be notable. For snow to happen in late winter you need to have close to perfect conditions.

Beyond that the cold air looks to stay around into the new week with another storm potential around mid week.

Winds Diminishing Today; Snow Showers Tomorrow

02. March 2017 · Comments Off on Winds Diminishing Today; Snow Showers Tomorrow · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

This morning’s high winds are slowly diminishing. I recorded a gust to 46 mph in Stewartsville.

The cold weather will stick around until early next week. A fast moving clipper system will move through western New Jersey tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. This should give us snow showers at times. At the most I’m thinking a coating on colder, grassy surfaces. I don’t think it should be any more than this. It will occur during the daylight; the precipitation shouldn’t be heavy, and it’s now early March.

« Older articles
Newer articles »
Plugin for Social Media by Acurax Wordpress Design Studio
Visit Us On TwitterVisit Us On FacebookVisit Us On PinterestVisit Us On YoutubeVisit Us On Instagram