10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Snow Totals · Categories: snow · Tags:
© 2017 Dave Dabour

© 2017 Dave Dabour

4.3″ snow total in Stewartsville. This was below my forecast of 1-3″. In retrospect I should have extended my 3-6″ forecast for northern areas further south.

Here are some snow totals in western New Jersey:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   RINGOES                4.2  1154 AM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   THREE BRIDGES          3.5  1201 PM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   READINGTON             2.8  1150 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER

...MORRIS COUNTY...
   KINNELON               5.0   142 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GREEN POND             5.0   140 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 ENE JEFFERSON TWP    4.0  1045 AM  3/10  COCORAHS
   MARCELLA               4.0  1140 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LAKE HOPATCONG         3.9  1042 AM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   BUTLER                 3.3  1206 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RANDOLPH TWP           3.0  1042 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PARSIPPANY             2.7  1254 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WARREN COUNTY...
   ALLAMUCHY              4.3  1225 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.3  1154 AM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BROADWAY               4.0   137 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER

In PA:
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   TATAMY                 6.0   139 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UPPER NAZARETH TWP     5.0   144 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FORKS TWP              4.9   226 PM  3/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BUSHKILL CENTER        4.0  1254 PM  3/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Mid Day Snow Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

This snow today has certainly over-performed. As of 11 am 4.3″ of snow in Stewartsville. The heavy snow band that came through about an hour ago really over-produced. I picked up over 1″ of snow per hour for 2 hours in a row! That’s impressive for this type of system in March.

The radar above shows the darker band of heavy snow moving away from western New Jersey. I anticipate the snow ending by early afternoon. Then we need to be on the lookout for snow squalls this afternoon and early evening as much colder air moves into the region.

10. March 2017 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Snow Update · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,
Early morning snow falling in western New Jersey

Early morning snow falling in western New Jersey

As of 7:15 am 1.0″ of snow has fallen in Stewartsville so far. The forecast is still on track for 1-3″ with more to the north, 3-6″ near and north of I-80.

Radar above as of 8 am shows more snow to our west. Look for the steady snow to continue until about lunch time. It will fall at various rates. After that it will be more showery with the potential for some snow squalls later in the day.

Snow is not sticking to roads in the southern area of western New Jersey for the most part unless they are in the shade.

09. March 2017 · Comments Off on Snow Amounts For Friday · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

My thoughts haven’t changed too much for Friday’s late season snow. My forecast is still a 1-3″ for western New Jersey. Less to the south and more to the north. I will add a 3-6″ band closer to I-80 and north of there. Reason being this is all starting as rain. The change to snow will occur faster up north and slower to the south.

Another factor for tomorrow is the chance for snow squalls at the end of the storm and in the afternoon. Another cold front will be following tomorrow’s storm and it looks to be accompanied by some snow squalls. Not sure if this will be a repeat of last Friday but if they materialize it could add to the snow totals some what.

What’s not changing is the well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Not getting above freezing most likely!

Then we need to continue to watch late Monday night into Tuesday. This is looking more and more like it will happen and the cold air will still be around so you know what that means…

 

09. March 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Returns In March · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: ,

The windy weather of yesterday and today tell us a change is a coming. Today’s relatively balmy conditions will not be experienced again for a while. The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for all of western New Jersey as seen in the purple in the map above.

Look for clouds to increase later today and tonight. It will be warm enough to have the precipitation start off as rain late tonight and early tomorrow morning. As colder air continues to move into our area the rain should change to a mix and then all snow.

My forecast is for 1-3″ of snow in southern sections of western New Jersey with perhaps a little more up to the north and in any elevated areas. There will be more accumulation on colder, grassy surfaces than on roads. I do expect the roads to get covered a little since it will be snowing before sun up and could come down moderate at times. My snow forecast is a little lower than what is seen on the NWS map above.

The snow should taper off to snow showers in the afternoon and then the chill sets in. We will not get above freezing all weekend! Keep in mind our normal daytime high is now approaching 47 degrees. We will most likely not see high temperatures in the 40’s for at least a week!

07. March 2017 · Comments Off on March Roller Coaster Weather Continues · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Spring and fall can feature variables in the weather. So far this month is showing signs of not disappointing. After a very cold weekend, we are starting to rebound to warmer weather today. We should get into the 50’s today and tomorrow. Remember the average high this time of year is about 46 and climbing.

With warmer weather brings rain as is evident this morning. Western New Jersey is receiving light rain this morning. Look for this to taper to showers this afternoon. This is the warm front passing through our area. A cold front will pass through later tonight and be accompanied by some additional rain and perhaps even a rumble of thunder.

And then what?

Well some unseasonable cold weather is heading to western New Jersey. Thursday will be a transition day with temperatures mostly in the 40’s as cold air filters into our area. A weak system will be approaching from the west that can give is some light precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time is looks like it could be cold enough for a wintry mix and snow (especially to the north).

This will clear our Friday afternoon and more cold air comes into our region. Saturday looks similar to last Saturday with temperatures struggling to get above the freezing mark. We all knew we were going to have pay back for all that unusual warmth last month!

And then what?

Another more potent storm system looks to be approaching our area from the south and west. As of right now it appears we will be on the colder side of the storm. The big question is how far north does it get. Will we be on the northern fringe or will we feel the full impacts? Traditionally this winter when computer models show a system impacting areas to our south in advance, tend to migrate to the north as the event nears. Let’s see if that happens with this one. As a result Sunday has the potential to be a wintry day. How wintry? It could be enough to remind us it’s still winter. If everything comes together it could be a plow-able event. Keep in mind it can snow in March. Ironically this Sunday, March 13 is the anniversary of a famous super storm that impacted the east coast in 1993. No this will not be that but it could be notable. For snow to happen in late winter you need to have close to perfect conditions.

Beyond that the cold air looks to stay around into the new week with another storm potential around mid week.

02. March 2017 · Comments Off on Winds Diminishing Today; Snow Showers Tomorrow · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

This morning’s high winds are slowly diminishing. I recorded a gust to 46 mph in Stewartsville.

The cold weather will stick around until early next week. A fast moving clipper system will move through western New Jersey tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. This should give us snow showers at times. At the most I’m thinking a coating on colder, grassy surfaces. I don’t think it should be any more than this. It will occur during the daylight; the precipitation shouldn’t be heavy, and it’s now early March.

02. March 2017 · Comments Off on High Wind Warning Until 10am · Categories: spring · Tags:

I certainly don’t have to tell anyone in western New Jersey that it’s windy out overnight and this morning. Stewartsville had a wind gust to 46 mph so far.

The winds should taper down a little after 10 am.

...High Wind Warning in effect until 10 am EST this morning...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High
Wind Warning...which is in effect until 10 am EST this morning.
The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Locations...southeastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey and 
  far northern Delaware. 

* Winds...west wind 30 to 35 mph at times with widespread gusts 50
  to 60 mph. 

* Timing...winds slowly diminish beginning around 9 am or 10 am.

* Impacts...gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  impact high profile vehicles traveling open high terrain and
  over bridges. Some tree limbs or wires are expected to break 
  and cause power outages. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.
01. March 2017 · Comments Off on Wind Advisory until 11 am Thursday · Categories: spring · Tags:
...Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 11 am EST
Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Wind
Advisory...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 11 am EST
Thursday.

* Winds...west-northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph.

* Timing...winds will shift out of the west and increase overnight
  behind a cold front. The strongest winds are expected late
  tonight into Thursday morning.

* Impacts...gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that very windy conditions are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Light-weight outdoor
objects such as patio furniture and garbage cans should be
01. March 2017 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:

The threat of severe weather has passed. The rain we received this morning, and the associated clouds, held down our high temperatures today. Warm temperatures is what fuel thunderstorms.

We could have some scattered showers this afternoon. There could even be a rumble of thunder when the actual cold front passes late tonight.

The we get back to reality tomorrow with brisk winds and temperatures in the 40’s.

And then some snow on Friday morning? Tune back in for details…

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