Western New Jersey received some very beneficial rainfall overnight. Stewartsville received 1.71″ of rain. The best park is the rainfall rate: it wasn’t a down pour that washed away. the rate of rainfall never exceeded 1/2″ per hour.
So when will it rain again? Even though the heavy rain is past us for now we could see a shower or two today. Then the cold front will finally pass through later on and bring October like temperatures finally. Low 70’s of today will be replaced with upper 50’s tomorrow and Friday!
The cold front mentioned above will stall not too far away from us. Waves of low pressure will ride of the front and reintroduce rain back into our area. I expect this to start as early as Thursday afternoon but it should be here by Friday at the latest. This is not directly related to Joaquin yet!
Speaking of Joaquin what will happen? The above map has the tropical storm now a hurricane and remaining one. The storm has also slowed down and is not forecast to be in our area directly until later in the weekend/early next week as seen above.
Meteorologists have several computer models that forecast future movements of just tropical systems. The latest forecast map is above. You can see a majority of them now take Joaquin into the eastern seaboard south of us and then turn the system north. The National Hurricane Center doesn’t believe them yet and neither do I. This is a situation that will continue to be watched and monitored.
What unclear to me at the moment is when the rain resumes later Thursday or Friday from the stalled front just to our south, will we have steady rain from that point up until Joaquin get into our area? Or will there be periods of rain? And when will the heaviest rain fall and how much? I will be focusing on answers to these questions in the days ahead.
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