Initial Forecast for Sunday Snow

28. February 2015 · Comments Off on Initial Forecast for Sunday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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After Saturday morning lows in the single digits, western New Jersey weather will be sunny with relatively light winds and a high temperature in the mid to upper 20’s today. Today might be a good day to run any errands or do outdoor chores. This evening will start off clear and temperatures will drop fast initially under clear skies and light winds. Then clouds will increase the second half of the night. We should have an overnight low in the single digits again.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with periods of light snow starting as early as mid day. I do think the snow will be spotty and intermittent until later in the day. There could be periods when it’s coming down pretty good followed by little or no snow – similar to the last event like this. Then the snow will become more steady and regular late in the afternoon into the evening. Then we start the race of warm air moving in above us that will change us to a wintry mix. I do think we will remain below freezing for most of the time precipitation is falling. This time, unlike the last storm, I think we will mix with sleet and freezing rain at the end of the storm. This will lead to less snow in southern sections of western New Jersey.

Right now I’m forecasting a general 1-3” of snow on Sunday and Sunday night. There will be a little more in northern sections where the mix or changeover does not occur. I do anticipate all precipitation ending BEFORE sunup on Monday morning. So hopefully any school impacts will be delays only at best.

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Monday will turn out to be a nice day with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s. Our next storm will be later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now this looks to be a warmer snow. We may briefly start off with snow that will go to a wintry mix rather quickly and then to rain.

Friday Morning Weather Discussion

27. February 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Weather Discussion · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Western New Jersey did see some light snow yesterday but it didn’t amount to too much. Most places only received a dusting or a coating. Early risers this morning may have also seen some flurries as well as cold temperatures in the low teens.

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Friday will feature clouds and sun and a few passing flurries with highs in the mid 20’s. Tonight and Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows in the single digits. Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 20’s. Sunday will see light snow developing in the afternoon and into the evening and overnight. At this point this is looking very similar to the last storm we received where we started off as snow and some areas finished as sleet and freezing rain. So look for a small accumulating snow later on Sunday and Sunday night, possibly changing to a wintry mix and ending early Monday. It may actually warm up enough by Wednesday to give us rain. More details on all of this over the weekend.

Thursday Morning Weather Forecast

26. February 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Morning Weather Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Radar is showing it snowing over western New Jersey this Thursday morning. However it’s not reaching the ground. Why? Because its so cold and dry outside. All of the snow south and east of Philly is reaching the ground and accumulating several inches. We should only see flurries today with most of it out of the area by early afternoon.

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This storm passing offshore will bring in a fresh supply of cold air. We should have a low near 10 Friday morning and remain in the 20’s during the day Friday and Saturday. It will also be cold Saturday and Sunday mornings with a low in the single digits.

Out next chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into Monday. More info on that as we get closer.

Thursday Morning Snow Potential

25. February 2015 · Comments Off on Thursday Morning Snow Potential · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I wanted to post an update this evening. Nothing major but more of a heads up. If you have been reading my last several posts, I’ve been mentioning the computer models have been inching up the snow for Thursday. The short term models continued to do that today as well. In looking at the national radar now, it too looks more northerly to me.

So I just wanted to give everyone a heads up that the flurries could be a period of light snow or some snow showers. I see this as being nothing more than a coating at best. The NWS map above has all of northern NJ in <1”. Timing should be in the early morning ending around mid day.

Above Freezing Wednesday; Perhaps Some Snow Showers Thursday

25. February 2015 · Comments Off on Above Freezing Wednesday; Perhaps Some Snow Showers Thursday · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Overnight lows were a bit higher that I forecasted for this morning in western New Jersey but I’m sure no one is going to complain Smile. Today should be a nice day and we should get above freezing with mostly sunny skies.

I found the above graphic online courtesy of the NWS in Pittsburgh. I know there are a lot of people out there that are tired of winter in the north east and ready for spring. While I believe March will start off on the cold side, I look for some relief during the week of March 8th so hang in there!

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Tomorrow morning we may see a few snow showers. A storm system is passing to our south. It now looks like it will get *very* close to our area. So we will certainly start off cloudy and see some flurries or snow showers tomorrow morning – especially in sections east and south of here.

We should end the week with mostly sunny skies but temperatures in the 20’s. Next chance of precipitation will be Sunday into Monday. More on that as we get closer.

Record Breaking Tuesday Morning Cold

24. February 2015 · Comments Off on Record Breaking Tuesday Morning Cold · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

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Western New Jersey residence awoke to another morning of below zero temperatures. Stewartsville was –7. Points further to the north were in the teens below zero! At least the wind died down. Calm winds in part allowed us to get this cold. A fresh snow pack helped as well as clear skies. Allentown’s previous low temperature record for today was 4 above. What’s also worth point out is this is the fourth morning this month we were below zero! And we are on day 32 of consecutive snow cover.

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High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper teens. Tonight will not be as cold with some clouds increasing. It’s been an amazing winter when we can say “not as cold tonight” yet the low will be in the mid single digits! Wednesday will see high temperatures in the low to mid 30’s. We will still be watching a storm to our south Wednesday night and Thursday. It still looks not to impact us but the NJ shore and eastern Long Island ay receive some light snow. We finish out the week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s.

Back Into The Freezer

23. February 2015 · Comments Off on Back Into The Freezer · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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How beautiful was the weather Sunday afternoon??!! Most locations in western New Jersey over performed on temperature and reached the low to mid 40’s! My weather station in Stewartsville was 44. Felt even nicer with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Believe it or not that was close to what should be normal for this time of year. Now that we are in late February, the sun is getting higher in the sky and we have more daylight hours. All of this allows for gradual warming.

But not this week for us. An arctic front passed by early this morning. As a result temperatures should pretty much not go up anymore today and slowly start falling. Tonight may be another record breaking night as far as low temperatures are concerned. We are forecasted to go below zero again. With fresh snow cover and winds becoming light after midnight we have a chance of bottoming out at near five below zero.

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Tuesday will be another chilly day with highs in the mid to upper teens. Clouds should increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as a storm passes to our south. This is something we need to monitor as computer models have been showing this storm moving north a little and may impact southern New Jersey and the Delmarva area.

Once that storm passes another shot of cold air arrives to finish the week. Good news is it doesn’t appear to be as brutally cold as the one we are experiencing right now. There is a chance for another warm up for a day or two next week this time. We also need to monitor a storm for next weekend and into the following week.

Snow Totals February 21-22, 2015

22. February 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Totals February 21-22, 2015 · Categories: snow · Tags:

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Here are some additional snow amounts from western New Jersey area.

How much snow did you receive?

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.0  1000 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGWOOD               4.0   754 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FLEMINGTON             3.9  1100 AM  2/22  COCORAHS
   READINGTON TWP         3.3   730 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
...WARREN COUNTY...
   HARMONY TWP            4.5   851 PM  2/21  SOCIAL MEDIA
   HACKETTSTOWN           4.0   659 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   OXFORD                 4.0   913 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BLAIRSTOWN             3.8   738 AM  2/22  SOCIAL MEDIA
   HOPE                   3.5   700 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ALLAMUCHY              3.3   715 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.1   830 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   FORKS TWP              5.6   619 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   DANIELSVILLE           5.5  1002 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HELLERTOWN             4.5   730 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NAZARETH               4.3   709 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BUSHKILL TWP           4.3   913 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BETHLEHEM              4.1   150 AM  2/22  BROADCAST MEDIA
   MARTINS CREEK          3.7   640 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER

Sunday Shovel & Scrape

22. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Shovel & Scrape · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Western New Jersey received about 4” of snow from the system that started around mid day on Saturday. The snow started off with a vengeance but then tapered to only light snow and flurries for several hours yesterday afternoon. If you lived further to the north and west the snow may have stopped completely. The snow “winner” of sorts were further to the south. The heaviest snow axis was from around Washington, DC to Philly to Trenton to just west of NYC. I put winner in quotes because these locations also saw sleet and freezing rain after the snow.

Stewartsville never switched over to mixed precipitation which very much surprised me. We came VERY close to doing so. Hunterdon county did switch over last evening as did points to the south and east. I believe Lehigh Valley also stayed all snow as did areas of new jersey to the north.

I picked this blog title not to be cute (well a little) but to also emphasize today is the day to get stuff done outside. For a change we will break freezing today and the sun should make an appearance as well. Winds should not be too bad either. So get outside and shovel, scrape, shop and do what needs to be done. Why? Another arctic front will be moving through later that will drop the temperature again. Monday will start off with a low in the low teens and not really recover at all during the day. We may “climb” up to the mid teens. But then the bottom drops out again Monday night and Tuesday morning will find us below zero overnight lows. Tuesday will be another cold day then we recover a little on Wednesday.

Keeping an eye on an Alberta clipper system for mid week which may give us a quick snot of light snow. Then attention turns to next weekend.

I hope to get out myself today and take some snow photos. If I do I’ll share these later. Enjoy the Sunday warmth!!

Here are some additional snow reports from western new jersey area:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.0  1000 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
...WARREN COUNTY...
   HARMONY TWP            4.5   851 PM  2/21  SOCIAL MEDIA
   STEWARTSVILLE          3.2  1130 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HACKETTSTOWN           3.0  1205 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   OXFORD                 2.5  1115 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BLAIRSTOWN             1.8  1100 PM  2/21  SOCIAL MEDIA
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   BETHLEHEM              4.1   150 AM  2/22  BROADCAST MEDIA
   FORKS TWP              3.8  1010 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BUSHKILL TWP           2.4  1230 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MARTINS CREEK          2.0   926 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER

Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Even though most locations have seen snow this afternoon in western new jersey, there are sections further north and west that have seen little. Everyone received a good amount of snow initially. But then a large dry area opened up in northeast PA into northern NJ. This is the result of heavier precipitation falling to our south that what was originally anticipated. This heavier axis of precipitation now looks to be from Washington DC area to SW PA to SW NJ up to NYC area.

The heavier precipitation will slowly move north as the evening progresses. As of 5pm most areas have received about 1” of new snow. Snow ill become heavier this evening. I no longer believe that most areas in western new jersey will received 3-6” of snow. Certainly sections further to the south and east will see those numbers. My revised forecast for snow is 2-4.”

Right now temperatures at the surface have been steady after rising earlier in the day. We have to monitor what the temperature is doing in the mid levels of the atmosphere to see when sleet will start mixing in and whether or not we will go to all rain.

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