temperature now up to 28 degrees and *slowly* climbing in western New Jersey. Hopefully by 1 am will be above freezing and can have plain rain. 0.9” total of snow and sleet.
Figured tonight would be a good time to repost this graphic that explains the difference between snow, sleet and freezing rain.
And you can only get hail in thunderstorms which are typically in warmer weather. Hail and sleet are different.
So right now, even though we are well below freezing at the surface in western New Jersey (mid 20’s), there is a warmer layer above us that is melting the snow. But there is still enough cold air near the surface to re-freeze the rain and turn it into snow. Once a snow flake melts, it can’t go back to being a snow flake 
We will most likely have a period of freezing rain until all of the warmer air makes it down to the surface and gives us rain. We want that to be a short as possible. I’d rather have sleet over freezing rain…
Even though this radar image above does not show us in the pink/red, heavy sleet is now falling in most locations of western New Jersey as of 4:30 pm. Stewartsville received 1/2” snow before the changeover.
Now a waiting game to see when warmer air makes it down to the surface and switches us to rain. This may not be until after midnight.
Roads are getting very slippery!
The Thursday event now looks like the heaviest snow will once again be to our south. But we will still see some. More details later.
Skies are now mostly cloudy in western New Jersey this Tuesday morning. We will see the clouds thicken up and lower as the day moves on. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 30. Look for snow to move into our area between 3-5 pm. Most locations will receive a coating to 2” of snow this evening before it changes over to sleet then freezing rain. Speaking of changeover, I believe this will happen quickly this evening. We could start seeing sleet mixing in as early as 7pm. Then it will become a complete wintry mix including freezing rain. Then we start the waiting game: how fast will the surface temperature rise so we can switch from freezing rain to plain rain. This could happen as early as 10 pm or as late as after midnight.
We will have periods of rain late night into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer with a high in the low 40’s.
Then round two starts. Colder air will start working into our area Wednesday evening and night. This will eventually mix the rain with sleet. Then we will transition to snow and it looks to continue into Thursday. This will be a battle between how fast the cold air arrives while the precipitation stays around. Right now computer models are suggesting we have the potential for an additional 3-6” late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I’ll focus more on this once we get tonight’s weather out of the way.
Then colder Thursday night (single digits) then we have what looks like a nice stretch of dry weather Friday into Monday!
Monday morning update for western new jersey has most area schools closed today. Light rain started over night and transitioned to freezing rain and sleet as the temperature slowly dropped. Most untreated surfaces are slipper as seen in the above photo.
I was impressed with the steady rain of temperature decline since midnight. In researching this further and looking at overnight observation the colder air actually came in from the east and north. Portions of long island were colder than NJ. And now NJ is colder than portions of PA. This will all even out as the coastal storm strengthens.
As this trend continues today, we will see more sleet than freezing rain. Then some light snow will transition in this afternoon. I still expect only a coating to perhaps 2” in most areas. Northern sections of western new jersey will experience slightly more snow as they will have cold longer.
After today conditions improve. Tuesday we should see temperatures back up above freezing. Then another artic front will pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a little light snow but also the return of very cold air – perhaps the coldest of the season. Hopefully I’ll be able to stop saying that soon…
Happy ground Hog Day everyone! Western New Jersey picked up about 3-4” of snow late last night and early this morning. Some amounts in far northern Sussex county are approaching 12” as they never changed over to sleet and freezing rain/rain like most of western NJ did.
Already at this hour temperatures are starting to fall below freezing and light rain has already changed back to sleet and some light snow. This is somewhat surprising and concerning to me that this happened already. Look for this to continue into the afternoon. This is because the coastal storm is now taking over and causing colder temperature to rush back into the region. this will cause any standing water or wet snow to freeze over fast this afternoon. In fact we may see a 10-15 degree temperature drop in 1 hour later this afternoon!
While I do not expect a lot of sleet and snow this afternoon some section may pick up a quick coating to around 1” in any heavier snow squalls that do develop. Look for temperatures to be in the single digits by sun up Tuesday morning.
Can you believe the ground hog actually saw his shadow? It must have been from all the TV lights! Six more weeks of winter!
Monday mornings commute is shaping up to be not fun. It looks like snow sleet and freezing rain will move into western new jersey after 3 am Monday morning. It will probably start out as a little snow then quickly go over to sleet and freezing rain. The good news is we should see plain rain by mid day. Also the roads appear to still have plenty of treatment still on them. The bad news is it’s been cold lately and all the surfaces are cold and below freezing. I believe the biggest concern will be icing. The NWS map above shows the potential amount of icing for us: 1/10 to 1/4”
So delay travel if possible Monday morning or leave today/earlier. After that we have a brief cold spell again followed by temperatures return to the 30’s which should hopefully feel warm to us as long as there is no wind!
A mixture of snow and sleet should overspread the area my midday. Warmer air will be right behind it and we should be all rain by mid afternoon, early evening the latest. Temperatures have already risen this morning from overnight lows in the upper teens to near 30 degrees. Wind is light but out of the warmer east. This will cause any frozen precipitation that falls to only accumulate on colder surfaces. Look for a light slushy accumulation in southern and eastern areas and up to 1” in the north and west.
The NWS has issues a winter weather advisory for today for Warren, Northampton and further north and west. Hunterdon county is NOT included.
Even though temperatures are rising rapidly this morning, the temperature should drop a little once the precipitation starts. This is know as evaporational cooling. It will last for only a little while then the temperature will continue to rise.
Temperatures tonight will actually rise and be in the upper 50’s by Sunday afternoon! But don’t get used to that yet. Much colder air will rush in Sunday night and Monday causing our temperatures to fall well below normal for the work week ahead.
I’ll post updates if warranted.
DD
More of the same will be in order for western jersey weather today. Clouds will win over sunshine but there will be periods of sun today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday and be in the upper 30’s. Winds will thankfully be a little less but will be breezy at times.
Saturday will start off cloudy and precipitation could move in as early as mid morning to mid day. The computer models are again bringing in the precipitation faster. It looks to start off a little on the wintry side. I don’t think there will be too much freezing rain but there could be some wet snow or sleet in the beginning. There might even be a coating in the normally colder section north and west.
but make no mistake this will not be a wintry storm. Warmer air will win out and moderate rain will fall Saturday afternoon and night. We look to received 1/2 – 1” of rain ending as showers on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50’s! Enjoy it as much colder weather looks to arrive on Monday. In fact we may not get above freezing for a good part of this upcoming week!
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