19. March 2022 · Comments Off on Saturday Weather Update · Categories: spring, thunderstorms · Tags: , ,

The Storms Prediction Center has upgraded our entire area to a slight risk of severe weather later today. Previously the greatest threat of severe weather looked to be in PA.

Future radar forecast for later this afternoon

Even though the dynamics of possible severe weather has increased, it could be a lot worse. The line looks to weaken as it moves east later this afternoon and be a broken line instead of a solid line.

We shouldn’t receive more than a 1/10″ of rain overall today unless you find yourself under one of the heavier cells.

The greatest threat will be from strong gusty winds

12. March 2022 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Update · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

If it’s not snowing where you are it will very soon. The front went through Stewartsville around 7:30 am and we had rain change over to sleet within 15 minutes. 15 minutes later, wet snow with temperatures falling into the low 30’s.

Everything remains on track with the storm and forecast. I’m expecting 3-6″ in our area. Snow should start to taper off in midafternoon but snow showers could remain into the evening.

Don’t forget the winds will be quite gusty. And change your clocks tonight!

Tonight and Sunday will be winter-like but don’t fear – warmer weather will return Monday and stay the entire week with temperatures in the 50’s and low 60’s!

20. January 2020 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Results · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

So how much did we get with the last snow system? Stewartsville recorded 1.9″ of snow before we changed to sleet then freezing rain. Slightly higher amounts in areas further to the north where the transition took longer to occur.

11. January 2019 · Comments Off on Light Snow Saturday NIght · Categories: winter · Tags:
NWS Snow Forecast

The winds of the last 2 days are gradually subsiding. Today will be cold with some wind and highs in the 30’s. Tonight will be one of the coldest nights of the new year so far. Saturday will feature increasing clouds with some light now arriving in the evening. This is going to be primarily a southern storm and will only impact our area with a coating to 1″. Some areas to the north, say north of I-80 may only see flurries or perhaps nothing at all!

Sunday will be dry with the snow staying well to our south.

12. May 2018 · Comments Off on Severe Weather Potential Shifts South · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags: , ,

SPC severe weather threat for later on this afternoon

The severe weather threat has shifted further south and west for later on today. This takes most of western New Jersey  out of the severe weather threat except for southern and western most sections. This is due to the warm front not making it as far north as originally anticipated. If you haven’t been outside yet this morning it’s not only wet but much cooler with temperatures around 50. It now looks like we will not get much higher than the 60’s today. In fact northern areas could struggle to get to 60.

Further to the south by Philly they will get to 80 with warm and muggy temperatures. This disparity in temperature will fuel the potential for severe weather closer to them later on today as seen in the above map.

After this morning’s rain passes, there could be a break in the rain with only showers at times until later this afternoon. There could even be some breaks in the overcast but mostly cloudy conditions are expected today.

30. December 2017 · Comments Off on Light Snow Saturday Morning · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

Radar at 7:30 am

Radar at 7:30 am

As you wake up this Saturday morning you will find light snow falling in western New Jersey with temperatures in the mid teens.

NWS Snow forecast

NWS Snow forecast

As seen in the radar above, the heaviest bands of snow appear to be setting up to our south. As a result those locations could see up to 3″ of snow. The rest of the area should see up to 2″ of light snow.

The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for areas to our south.

The light snow should let up by early afternoon. Then we should see some flurries or perhaps some snow showers this afternoon. Then more bitter cold air returns after our “balmy” day today…

07. January 2017 · Comments Off on Updated Snow Forecast · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

Updated snow forecast from the NWS

I agree with the above. Since I have nearly 1″ in Stewartsville already (0.9″) I think a 1-3″ forecast is safe – again the higher numbers will be the the south and east and lower numbers to the north and west.

17. December 2016 · Comments Off on Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.

Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.

NWS forecast for ice

NWS forecast for ice

Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve

15. December 2016 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday

NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above

I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.

Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.

The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.

So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.

I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.

the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!

More updates as we get closer to the event.

20. February 2016 · Comments Off on Spring Like Saturday and Sunday Night Surprise · Categories: spring, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

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Temperatures will be well above normal in western New Jersey this weekend. Saturday will be the nicer of the two days with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 50’s, especially in southern locations

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Sunday will be a little cooler with highs only in the lower 50’s with an increase in clouds. The clouds will be from a small storm system that will pass to our south. But we will be on the northern fringe and receive some rain or wet snow overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

Then out attention turns to what will happen in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. More seasonable weather will return. Right now the storm systems look to be slowing down a bit so nothing looks to get started until Tuesday night. At this time is looks like western New Jersey will be impacted by two separate waves of low pressure. And it looks like these will track near or even to the west of our area that will give western New Jersey more rain than frozen. Updated details on that as we get closer.

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