While returning from photographing a fire call, I was driving through some intense winds which resulted in the recent snow to start blowing around and drifting again. If driving around this evening please be mindful of not only the extreme cold, but blowing and drifting snow.
Another arctic cold front and air mass moved into the area overnight. Some areas received a dusting of snow and others did not in western New Jersey area. Today will be windy with high temperatures in the mid teens with a biting wind. Friday morning will find us once again in below zero temperatures. I expect 0 to –5 for most of our area. We could dip lower if the winds relax.
Then our attention turns to the weekend. A storm will be approaching the area from the southwest. Saturday will start off sunny but cold. Look for snow to move in later in the day or in the evening. At this time it appears the storm will go to our west which will put us on the warm side. With that being the case our snow will change over to a wintry mix overnight and to plain rain on Sunday as temperatures warm above freezing.
I know many of you are tired of the cold (me too). But don’t look for an early warm up just yet. The just released 8-14 day temperature outlook has us much below normal temperatures until at least March 4th. At lease we’re getting more sunlight each day. The official sunset is now 5:40 pm!
I’m going to lower my snow total forecast for overnight into Tuesday morning. My reasons are as follows:
1- computer models today have trended a little further south
2- its so cold and dry out there it will take the snow a little longer to reach the ground (and not evaporate)
3- In looking at observations and radar this afternoon, most of the snow that is moving this way looks to be moving more to the east than north east. I’m starting to think this may be the southward trend
4- The NWS only has a winter weather advisory for Hunterdon county and nothing further north and west.
So I’m thinking we are more likely to see 1-3”
What can go wrong? The storm could track further north and put us in heavier snow. And since it is so cold, the snow ratio will be higher. Normally when it’s close to freezing, 0.10” of liquid will equal 1” of snow. But when its colder, this goes up. In fact it goes up more as it gets colder. Right now we could be in the 20:1 ratio area meaning that if only .1” of precip falls, that will give us 2” of snow.
If I see this change drastically later on this evening I’ll update.
Western new jersey morning lows did not disappoint this morning. Mn locations were below zero in the single digits. This was the coldest morning of the winter season so far. Will this be it? Or will it be colder Thursday or Friday morning?
Today looks for increasing cloudiness with highs remaining in the teens. Look for light snow to arrive later this evening between 9 and midnight. The snow should continue overnight and end by 9 am. I expect 2-4″ to fall in western new jersey area. More will fall to the SOUTH and slightly less to the north.
Another arctic front will pass through the area on Wednesday. Right now this looks to be later in the afternoon or evening. Expect snow showers and snow squalls before and during the frontal passage. Good news it shouldn’t be as windy with this system. Then we go back into the freezer and will have sub zero lows anticipated for Friday morning.
Let’s remember these days when the heat and humidity of summer returns!
I don’t have any good snow photos to share with you yet. I hope to get some today if I can tolerate the snow. Western new jersey picked up about 3” of snow in the last 24 hours. II t came in two parts. First yesterday from mid day until just before dinner time then part 2 was when the snow squalls came around 8-10 pm.
Western new jersey continues under a winter weather advisory and a high wind warning. My weather station gusted to 33 mph around 4:46 am. Expect similar strong gusts today into this evening. The winds will lighten up a little tonight but it will remain windy/breezy overnight as we most likely go below zero Monday morning. Most area today will only see a high temperature in the low to mid teens and by Monday morning lows should be around 5 BELOW zero. Then on Washington’s birthday we are only back in the mid teens as we slowly cloud up late in the day for the next system.
Right now the computer models are not consistent with the next system. It looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. Some models have most of the snow going to our south but one model has the snow coming up our way. Right now I’m thinking we will see plow able snow from the next storm. More details of course as we get closer.
In closing, stay warm today and check on the elderly!
I came across this excellent New Jersey State average Snowfall map that Tom Stavola did. For a year by year breakdown visit his page.
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