Rain has made its way to western New Jersey as of mid day
As you can see on the radar above, the far norther and western locations are seeing some sleet or wet snow mixed in. This is mostly at the higher elevations.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate this rest of the day into the evening. Rain will continue to become steadier and heavier and winds will pick up. Stewartsville has recorded a wind gust to 31 at 11:46. There have been wind gusts in the 50’s closer to the shore.
A large complex storm system in the eastern half of the nation is going to evolve into a wind and rain maker for western new jersey area. This is part of the same storm system that brought deadly severe weather to the southeast yesterday.
Look for rain to develop today and become heavier and steadier as the day continues. Look for 3/4″ – 1.5″ of rain in western New Jersey.
Winds will also be a big factor for this storm. We are already seeing wind gusts to near 30 this morning. Look for wind gust to 45 later today into tomorrow. There is a Wind Advisory from the NWS until at least 7 pm tonight.
Since this is late January, we typical think snow when we have strong storms like this. There will be some snow from this system but will be far north and west of western New Jersey. I do expect some sleet to mix in a times especially tonight.
The extended January thaw looks to end before we start a new month.
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 255 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS... MOST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING... A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 BUT RISING SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER &&
Brrr! Most locations in western New Jersey woke up to single digit temperatures. Some areas further to the north were below zero! Certainly nothing unexpected for January weather but still cold none the less.
Today will remain cold but at least there will not be as much wind as yesterday making it feel a little more comfortable.
Our next weather system will be moving to our north and west. This will put us on the eventual warm side of the storm. Eventual is the key word. There is a good amount of cold air and snow covered ground over western New Jersey right now. It will take a while for it to all be pushed out by warmer winds. This will result in Tuesday, main in the afternoon, of another snow to sleet to freezing rain day before it eventually turns to rain. Before that changeover I’m forecasting a coating to 1″ followed by some ice on untreated surfaces. To make matters worse this should still be happening by the afternoon rush.
This will be relatively light precipitation but it doesn’t take much to make things slippery. The only good news is there is a tremendous amount of salt on area roads so hopefully they will not be too bad.
The combination of some snow on the grounds, brisk winds and January will make today a downright chilly if not bitterly cold day. Wind chills will not get about the single digits while actual air temperatures don’t make it out of the low to mid 20’s.
Stewartsville received 1.1″ of new snow yesterday. There was less to the north and more to the south and east as expected.
The cold won’t last forever. Look for us to go above freezing on Tuesday and high temperatures look to remain above normal mid to late week. There are even signs of a January thaw on the weather map!
Stewartsville, NJ received just under 1″ of snow on January 6, 2017
Most areas received a dusting overnight in western New Jersey. Friday will remain a cold day with temperatures just barely climbing to near freezing.
The next storm will come up from the south and try to turn north and go up the coast. But it will have this cold dome of high pressure that doesn’t want to move. So it will be a squeeze play. I expect some snow showers over most of western New Jersey that could result in a coating to perhaps 1″ further to the east and south. As you you can see from the NWS snowfall forecast map above, most of the snow will fall to our south and east. Further south some areas of Virginia and NC will receive 6-12″ of snow.
As has been the pattern with storms so far this cold season, we will get another snow to rain event on Thursday. Look for light snow to overspread western New Jersey around rush hour time – certainly by mid morning. Then, as has been the case this year, the snow will start mixing with and then change to rain. The difference this time I don’t expect much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. There is not a lot of colder air near the surface.
As far as accumulation I expect a coating to 1″ for most areas of southern Warren and Hunterdon counties with a little bit more further to the north as well as in the Poconos.
This will turn into a very big storm – for northeastern New England. Some areas will receive over a foot of snow from this storm!
Much colder air will usher in as the storm passes. Friday will be quite windy and there could be some snow squalls.
The next event to keep an eye on in New Years Eve into New Years Day. More on that as we get closer.
My initial thoughts a few days ago for late Wednesday into Thursday was another wet snow to rain event for western New Jersey. The interesting part this time is the computer models have been trending slightly colder with each new run. If this continues we could see a minor wet snow accumulation.
The above map is from the NWS and shows the most likely snowfall for our area for Thursday. At this point I’m in agreement with this as it shows 1-2″ in most locations of western New Jersey. There is the potential for a few more inches, especially up north.
Today’s rain showers should be over my mid day and some sunshine should return. It will be a very mild day by late December standards. It will turn colder tomorrow but nothing too severe.
After the late Wednesday night/Thursday event there is another possibility of mixed precipitation unfortunately on New Year’s Eve. More on that as we get closer.
The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for this morning until 11 am for Warren county and further to the north. Hunterdon is not in the advisory area.
We are right around freezing and some very light rain is moving east from central PA this morning. This is response to some warmer weather that will arrive overnight into Tuesday. I do not expect this to be a big issue. If you are out and about when the rain starts, just be careful if the temperature is not yet above freezing. Then we turn more seasonable the rest of the week.
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN 340 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING... THEN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. * IMPACTS...ICING MAY CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning
The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory early Saturday morning. This is basically for the wee hours of Saturday morning starting from 1 am and should be well over by 9 am.
I don’t expect most areas in the south and central section of western New Jersey to see much if any freezing rain. In colder sections and deeper valley further to the north the rain may start out as a little freezing rain.
With many people traveling and visiting for the holidays it’s better to be safe than sorry.
We can expect rain to be over around mid day and for most areas of western New Jersey to receive about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of much needed rain. Of course no one wants to see rain on Christmas Eve but it should be well over before holiday services later in the day and evening.
Here is the advisory:
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-105-241100- /O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0004.161224T0600Z-161224T1400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- UPPER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE 315 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 AM, BECOMING HEAVIER BY 6 OR 7 AM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM. * IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Recent Comments