Frigid Friday Forecast

20. February 2015 · Comments Off on Frigid Friday Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Western New Jersey residence woke up to temperatures below zero again this morning. This is at least the second time this happened this winter season. Stewartsville recorded –3. What struck me the most was how the winds picked up late yesterday afternoon/early evening and made the cold even colder. It goes right through you.

Even with sunshine on Friday we will remain in the teens for high temperatures. Keep in mind our normal high temperature this time of year should be 41 degrees! I think if we hit 41 today people would be taking off their shirts in the street! lol

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The winds overnight will lighten up and allow our low temperature to drop to near zero again. We will also have increasing clouds which will help keep the temperatures from dropping out too much. Saturday will feature snow arriving as early as late morning. It should start off light and intermittent. The steadiest snow will start in mid to late afternoon. Keep in mind the storm responsible for this precipitation is going to our west and as such is bringing up warmer air. The warmer air will not only be at the surface but aloft too. Saturday will see high temperatures increasing as the day goes on – in the upper 20’s. Then sometime on Saturday evening I anticipate sleet and freezing rain to start mixing in with the snow. We will switch entirely to a wintry mix during the late evening or early overnight hours. We may even end up switching completely to rain on Sunday morning as Sunday’s high temperatures will be in the upper 30’s. But I anticipate precipitation (rain) ending early Sunday morning.

All of the snow we will receive should be on the front end of the storm. So how much for western New Jersey? At this time I’m thinking 2-4”. We could get the amounts the NWS is currently thinking in the map above (4-6). But right now I’m holding them down. Historically warmer air aloft always seems to find its way to southern sections of western NJ. This will result in us changing to a wintry mix and that will keep the snow totals down. For sections further to the north, you could see 4-6”

We turn colder on Monday and could even be at or below zero again next Tuesday morning. But at least the kids will have school on Monday – that hasn’t happened in a while given our storm pattern!

Back Into The Freezer For End Of Week

19. February 2015 · Comments Off on Back Into The Freezer For End Of Week · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Another arctic cold front and air mass moved into the area overnight. Some areas received a dusting of snow and others did not in western New Jersey area. Today will be windy with high temperatures in the mid teens with a biting wind. Friday morning will find us once again in below zero temperatures. I expect 0 to –5 for most of our area. We could dip lower if the winds relax.

Then our attention turns to the weekend. A storm will be approaching the area from the southwest. Saturday will start off sunny but cold. Look for snow to move in later in the day or in the evening. At this time it appears the storm will go to our west which will put us on the warm side. With that being the case our snow will change over to a wintry mix overnight and to plain rain on Sunday as temperatures warm above freezing.

I know many of you are tired of the cold (me too). But don’t look for an early warm up just yet. The just released 8-14 day temperature outlook has us much below normal temperatures until at least March 4th. At lease we’re getting more sunlight each day. The official sunset is now 5:40 pm!

Another Arctic Blast On the Way To End The week

18. February 2015 · Comments Off on Another Arctic Blast On the Way To End The week · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Residence of western New Jersey woke up this morning to near zero morning lows. Yet another arctic cold front will pass through western New Jersey this evening. There will be snow showers and even some snow squalls that will develop late this afternoon and continue into the early overnight hours. These can result in a coating to 1” of snow.

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Thursday and Friday will feature daytime highs in the mid teens with windy conditions. Friday morning lows are forecasted to be 5 to 10 BELOW zero!

Beyond that things get interesting and not necessarily in a good way. Saturday will see increasing clouds with a chance of snow late in the day and night. Then warmer air will invade the area and we will see the snow changeover to a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday. In fact its even possible for us to receive plain rain on Sunday! Hard to imagine after all this cold. If this does happen let’s hope its not too much so the snow doesn’t either melt too fast and provide floods.

I’ll keep an eye on this and provide updates as usual.

Snow Totals For Tuesday Morning

16. February 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Totals For Tuesday Morning · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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I’m going to lower my snow total forecast for overnight into Tuesday morning. My reasons are as follows:

1- computer models today have trended a little further south
2- its so cold and dry out there it will take the snow a little longer to reach the ground (and not evaporate)
3- In looking at observations and radar this afternoon, most of the snow that is moving this way looks to be moving more to the east than north east. I’m starting to think this may be the southward trend
4- The NWS only has a winter weather advisory for Hunterdon county and nothing further north and west.

So I’m thinking we are more likely to see 1-3”

What can go wrong? The storm could track further north and put us in heavier snow. And since it is so cold, the snow ratio will be higher. Normally when it’s close to freezing, 0.10” of liquid will equal 1” of snow. But when its colder, this goes up. In fact it goes up more as it gets colder. Right now we could be in the 20:1 ratio area meaning that if only .1” of precip falls, that will give us 2” of snow.

If I see this change drastically later on this evening I’ll update.

Tuesday Snow Forecast

16. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Snow Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Western new jersey morning lows did not disappoint this morning. Mn locations were below zero in the single digits. This was the coldest morning of the winter season so far. Will this be it? Or will it be colder Thursday or Friday morning?

Today looks for increasing cloudiness with highs remaining in the teens. Look for light snow to arrive later this evening between 9 and midnight. The snow should continue overnight and end by 9 am. I expect 2-4″ to fall in western new jersey area. More will fall to the SOUTH and slightly less to the north.

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Another arctic front will pass through the area on Wednesday. Right now this looks to be later in the afternoon or evening. Expect snow showers and snow squalls before and during the frontal passage. Good news it shouldn’t be as windy with this system. Then we go back into the freezer and will have sub zero lows anticipated for Friday morning.

Let’s remember these days when the heat and humidity of summer returns!

Arctic Sunday Weather Update

15. February 2015 · Comments Off on Arctic Sunday Weather Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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I don’t have any good snow photos to share with you yet. I hope to get some today if I can tolerate the snow. Western new jersey picked up about 3” of snow in the last 24 hours. II t came in two parts. First yesterday from mid day until just before dinner time then part 2 was when the snow squalls came around 8-10 pm.

Western new jersey continues under a winter weather advisory and a high wind warning. My weather station gusted to 33 mph around 4:46 am. Expect similar strong gusts today into this evening. The winds will lighten up a little tonight but it will remain windy/breezy overnight as we most likely go below zero Monday morning. Most area today will only see a high temperature in the low to mid teens and by Monday morning lows should be around 5 BELOW zero. Then on Washington’s birthday we are only back in the mid teens as we slowly cloud up late in the day for the next system.

Right now the computer models are not consistent with the next system. It looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. Some models have most of the snow going to our south but one model has the snow coming up our way. Right now I’m thinking we will see plow able snow from the next storm. More details of course as we get closer.

In closing, stay warm today and check on the elderly!

Update on St Valentine’s Day Snow and Cold

14. February 2015 · Comments Off on Update on St Valentine’s Day Snow and Cold · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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First off happy St. Valentine’s day to anyone who observes the holiday! Second let’s talk about the 1-2-3 we are going to get with weather today into Sunday.

The first for western new jersey will be snow showers which can start as early as this morning. Look for them to be flurries at times to brief periods of moderate snow at other times. This should be on an off today into tonight. I’m still thinking western new jersey will see 1-3” of snow with more to the east and north. Then as see in the above map, as the arctic front passes through the area this evening, we will get another intense burst or squall of snow.

Second will be the wind. As the arctic front swings thru the area tonight, a storm system will rapidly intensify in the ocean. As it pulls away, VERY strong winds will develop over our area. In fact the NWS has placed us in a High Wind Warning starting at 10 pm tonight until 2pm Sunday. We may have winds gusts as high at 50 or 60 mph – higher along the coast. The highest winds will be 5 am Sunday morning until noon.

The third part will be the extreme cold the winds will usher in. Once again this looks like the coldest air of the winter. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid teens and Monday morning lows will be below zero. We will only rebound to the mid teens again on Monday with low single digits lows for Tuesday morning.

And we will have a lot of blowing snow tonight into Sunday! How many days until Spring?

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Brutally Cold Weather Here To Stay

13. February 2015 · Comments Off on Brutally Cold Weather Here To Stay · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Western new jersey morning low temperatures are in the low single digits this morning courtesy of yesterday’s arctic cold front. We also picked up 1/2” of new snow. Winds will remain brisk today and high temperatures won’t be very high – only in the mid to upper teens!

Tonight thankfully won’t be as cold as this morning. Then our attention turns to Saturday. Another more potent arctic cold front will pass through the area later Saturday afternoon. It will be accompanied by a period of two of light to moderate snow. I do not think we will get as much as the NWS indicates in the map above. My forecast is for 1-3” of snow. More snow can fall to the north and east which will be closer to the energy that will be with the front. Once this front passes, it will generate a fast moving storm off the new jersey coast that will bring near blizzard conditions again to southeastern new england. image

This will all result in a very cold Valentine’s night and Sunday morning. Sunday temperatures will not get too much above 10! Monday morning could be the coldest part with low temperatures at or below zero in most of the area.

Then our attention turns to the next storm for later on Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm looks to have more moisture than the last few so will have to be watched carefully.

Snow Showers On Thursday Usher in Colder Air

12. February 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Showers On Thursday Usher in Colder Air · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Folks in western new jersey that are looking out the window Thursday morning may not believe that they are seeing in some cases moderate snow. Don’t be too alarmed. It should only amount to a coating to 1” and should be over within the hour. Then there will be snow showers as the artic front passes the area this afternoon. This front will usher in very cold air tonight and Friday.

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Saturday morning will be cold as well then we will see more snow showers or a period of light snow Saturday afternoon and night. We are watching Saturday night carefully. This storm will arrive with the next arctic front and will intensify. The questions is will it intensify around us, or has been the case recently, to our east. Right now I’m thinking it will be to our east but we will keep an eye on it with updates.

Sunday may be the coldest day of this winter with temperatures not getting above 10! Then Monday morning will earn the badge of the coldest morning of the winter with temperatures expected just below zero. Monday won’t recover too much with temperatures remaining in the teens.

Arctic Plunge

11. February 2015 · Comments Off on Arctic Plunge · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Western new jersey had morning lows in the mid teens. Today will be similar to yesterday but perhaps a couple of degrees cooler with partly sunny skies. We will gradually cloud up tonight with flurries arriving by Thursday morning. Look for periods of snow showers on Thursday with a coating to perhaps 1” at most as it looks now. This will bring the first round of even colder air to the eastern half of the nation. temperatures on Friday will not get out of the low to mid 20’s with a stiff wind.

Then another arctic front accompanied by a fast moving clipper will visit the area on Saturday. This will bring some light snow and even colder temperatures for Sunday into Monday. The map above show a computer model representation of Monday morning lows. Most of western NJ is below zero by 5 or 10 degrees!

So even though we’re well into winter and somewhat used to winter weather, I want the purpose of today’s blog to urge everyone to get ready for even colder weather to come unfortunately.

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