Spring Arrives on Wednesday

19. March 2019 · Comments Off on Spring Arrives on Wednesday · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Spring officially arrives on Wednesday late afternoon/evening at 5:58 pm.

The first partial day of Spring 2019 will be a nice one with high temperatures in the low 50’s. Normal high temperature this time of year is 50.

Unfortunately the first full day of spring doesn’t look as nice. In fact it looks to repeat weather that we’ve been seeing a lot of since last year: more rain. A cold front will pass through our area. A storm will form on the southern end of the cold front and move on up to the north east. At first it looked like this storm would mostly stay to the east of our area. Now we may be close enough to it to feel the impact of rain and wind. The worst of it will be to our east. So Thursday is looking like a rainy day with perhaps 2/3 to perhaps 3/4″ or more of rainfall. Friday into Saturday will be cooler and windy. Sunday looks to be the better half of the weekend and kick off spring in a nice way!

Slow Warm Up On The Way

07. March 2019 · Comments Off on Slow Warm Up On The Way · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:
Temperature forecast next 10 days

After another frigid morning a slow warm up will begin today. It will be slow at first but anything is better than the 20 degree below normal temperatures we have experienced this week. High temperatures today and tomorrow should get into the mid 30’s. Friday morning will be another cold morning but relief is on the way.

NWS snow forecast

As is often the case, when warmer air arrives the cold air is slow to depart at times. A weak system will be passing to our south on Friday late afternoon/evening. This could give our area some very light snow or snow showers. Right now it looks like a coating to perhaps 1″ in spots. This should be mostly on colder non-paved surfaces.

After that warmer on Saturday with a high near 40. CLouds will be on the increase Saturday late afternoon as some rain moves into the area Sunday morning. In some areas to the far north and west this could start as a little mixed precipitation but this should be mainly a rain event. Sunday’s high temperatures will be in the upper 40’s.

Next week looks to feature high temperatures in the 40’s with perhaps some 50’s by weeks end!

Winter’s Cold Returns

05. March 2019 · Comments Off on Winter’s Cold Returns · Categories: weather discussion, winter · Tags:
Tuesday morning low temperatures

Happy Shrove Tuesday – Fat Tuesday! Certainly doesn’t feel like pre-Lent celebrating even though Easter is almost as late as it can be this year.

Overnight lows were around 10 with some single digits further to the north. Look for a repeat performance tomorrow morning.

Warmer pattern next week

To give everyone something to look forward to we should see back to normal temperatures this weekend. Next week may actually have some mild days!

March Comes In Like A Cold Lion

01. March 2019 · Comments Off on March Comes In Like A Cold Lion · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags:
1.0″ of snow in Stewartsville on March 1, 2019

1″ of new snow was recorded in Stewartsville overnight. This resulted in many schools having a delayed opening this Friday morning.

The snow has moved to our east. Except for some flurries, skies should remain mostly cloudy today and continued below normal temperatures with highs in the 30’s.

NWS snow forecast for Friday overnight

The next fast moving system will waste no time moving into our area. We could see some light snow or snow showers move into western New Jersey this evening. This system will have more snow accumulations to the north. In fact south of our area, should change over to rain at some point. The snow looks to end Saturday morning. My snow forecast for this system is 1-3″ at this time. More to the north and less to the south. I’ll be keeping an eye today on the potential that we could receive more snow from this system. Some of the guidance has been suggesting we could see a little more.

AccuWeather snow forecast for Monday

The other thing I will be keeping an eye on today is the *next* storm system in our parade of systems. This one looks to arrive as early as Sunday afternoon and last into Monday morning. This one looks to be the strongest of the series and has the potential of delivering plowable snow to our area.

Regardless of what happens with this system next week looks COLD! HOpefully it will be winter’s last gasp…

Another Coating Chance Tonight

28. February 2019 · Comments Off on Another Coating Chance Tonight · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: ,
Coating of snow overnight in Stewartsville February 28, 2019

A coating of snow fell overnight in Stewartsville and other surrounding areas in western New Jersey overnight and very early Thursday morning. Today should feature plenty of sunshine. It will be warmer than yesterday but still below normal with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 30’s.

NWS snow forecast for Friday morning

Overnight tonight and tomorrow morning will be almost an exact repeat as this morning. The only difference is today’s system was to our north. Tomorrow’s system will be to our south. So more snow will potentially accumulate to the south and little if any to the north. My forecast is for another coating to 1″.

Active weekend in store

Friday looks to remain mostly cloudy. Then another system will impact us Saturday. This looks to be mainly rain but it will start off of some snow in the morning. Then another break then we turn our attention to a potentially stronger storm Sunday night into Monday morning. This storm will have more moisture to work with. The big question will be precipitation type. Rain, snow, sleet or all of the above. At this point I’m thinking all of the above. If this storm stays on the colder side of us it could give us several inches of snow.

More Chances For Minor Snow Amounts

26. February 2019 · Comments Off on More Chances For Minor Snow Amounts · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: ,
NWS snow forecast for Wednesday night

Hopefully everyone survived the wind and still have power. We actually lost power here in Stewartsville/Bloomsbury area for about an hour yesterday afternoon but thankfully came back on. I know many are still without power.

Today and tomorrow will be chilly days with high temperatures below our normal of 43f for this time of year. Look for high temperatures in the 30’s most of this week. Winds still be brisk but nothing like yesterday. We will still see some gusts to near 30 mph.

A weak system will approach our area from the north later on Wednesday. We should be cold enough to have all light snow arrive at night. The snow should be over before Thursday morning. Right now it looks like a light event that will have more snow to the north where most of the storm is passing.

My forecast is for a coating to 1″ with more to the north.

We look to have two more weak systems later this week into the weekend. They look weak and temperatures look to remain below normal for the next 10 days. But after that, can that be spring around the corner??!!

Heavy Rain Saturday Night; Strong Winds into Monday

22. February 2019 · Comments Off on Heavy Rain Saturday Night; Strong Winds into Monday · Categories: weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

After a very nice recovery in temperatures yesterday (50f high in Stewartsville) today, Friday will be pleasant but not quite as warm. Clouds will be on the increase on Saturday with rain arriving in the late afternoon and early evening. The rain should start off on the light and showery side but will get heavier as the night progresses. This is the same system that will be giving a blizzard to the west of Chicago and also gave snow to the dessert Southwest. But we are on the warm side of this storm and will only see rain.

And we could see a good amount of rain too. At least 1” of rain is forecast at this point. The ground continues to be saturated from the cold weather and all the rain we have received lately. This could result in some minor flooding in the usual places.

As the storm passes the big weather story will be the strong winds that develop Sunday afternoon and evening into Monday. Wind gust will be over 40 mph.

Snow Scheduled To Arrive Around Midday

20. February 2019 · Comments Off on Snow Scheduled To Arrive Around Midday · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: , ,
radar as of 10:30 Wednesday morning

Everything is still on track with the snow for today. As we mentioned, we are seeing snow showing up on the radar yet it’s not reaching the ground yet. This will continue to be the case today until the snow wins out over the very dry air. Right now my dew point in Stewartsville is 13f with my air temperature of 27f. That’s really dry.

But the snow will win out and mess up everyone’s afternoon commute if you unfortunately had to go to school or work today.

We then need to keep an eye on how fast sleet starts to mix in with the snow and eventually change over to plain rain. I would not be surprised to see sleet start in southern sections by early evening if not before.

I’m sticking with my 1-3″ forecast although right now it looks like we’ll be at the higher end of that range.

Updated Snow Forecast for Wednesday

19. February 2019 · Comments Off on Updated Snow Forecast for Wednesday · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: ,
NWS snow forecast

Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect for Wednesday. The Winter Storm watch is no longer in effect.

Based on everything I’ve seen today, I’m lowering my snow forecast to 1-3″. There’s even a good chance we could see less than this.

Reasons for the update:

  • not as much cold air available
  • there is no real cold high pressure to the north of us. rather it will be to the east of us and that will help promote the warmup that will take place
  • the air before the storm is very dry. This will prevent any snow accumulation for the first several hours of the storm. At this time I don’t expect snow to start in our area until mid-day or slightly later
  • like so many storms of this winter, we will transition to sleet and freezing rain to rain. I expect us to start this transition wednesday evening

Winter Storm Watch Wednesday

19. February 2019 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch Wednesday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: ,
NWS snow forecast

Will this be another repeat of the November 2018 storm? A recap in case you don’t remember. Most of the area was under a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory. Schools got closed even though no snow arrive until early afternoon. It then snow on an off, moderate at times, until it changed over to sleet and eventually freezing rain and then all rain.

History looks to repeat itself.

There are a couple of differences with tomorrows system compared to November:

  • More snow will fall to the south and west than the north. It’s usually just the opposite.
  • Our cold air supply is not in a good position and shouldn’t last as long as other storms have in the past
  • After the storm we should have high temperatures in the 50’s on Thursday after the storm!
Current watches in our area

Anticipate the the current winter storm watch will be transitioned to either a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory.

Initially I wasn’t overly impressed with the system and the lack of cold air. My forecast is for 204″ of snow with more to the south and west and less to the north.

As always we need to keep an eye on the changeover to sleet and freezing rain and how long that part of the storm will be. The storm will eventually changeover to plain rain before ending.

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