The last of the heaviest band of snow is now moving out of western New Jersey. After dinner time we will see lighter periods of snow (1/2″ per hour perhaps) that will end before midnight. Winds will continue to be brisk and blow around snow and make drifts.
Approaching 24″ in Stewartsville NJ!
Many areas in western New Jersey are now nearing white-out conditions. These heavy bands of snow will continue for the next several hours. This is the height of the storm from a heavy snowfall point of view. There was also a very heavy snow fall rate in the early morning hours that most of us slept through.
The NWS has upgraded their snow totals to 24-30.” Considering we are past the half way point on the low end this is possible!
Stewartsville, NJ received 8.1″ of new snow so far from the blizzard. I will forward more storm reports as I see them. Snow started around 8 pm last evening and continued at various rates overnight. It was very heavy in the early morning hours.
Right now there is what we call a “dry slot” over western New Jersey. This is seen as the lighter precipitation on the radar above. This is something that is very hard to predict. If this remains over western New Jersey for an extended period of time, snow totals will have to be lowered.
As of right now I’m maintaining the forecast of 12-18″ of total snow.
Winds have been gusting to near 30 mph so far this Saturday morning. Look for wind gust to continue and even get stronger.
The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.
Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”
How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.
How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning
Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.
Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!
Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.
Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour
Recent computer models, which weather forecasters use as a tool to forecast weather, have been keeping northern areas of the storm with less snow while maintaining the snow bulls eye near Washington DC. This is in part due to the strong high pressure to the north that is holding its ground and has dry air. If this trend continues I will most likely lower my snow forecast for this weekend to 4-8.” There’s even a chance that is too high but let’s not jump the gun yet. It’s still going to be an impressive storm with wind. Does not look to start until early Saturday morning in western New Jersey area.
Not a direct impact to western New Jersey but the NWS just issues a Blizzard Watch for central and southern New Jersey as seen in the green area in the map above. Note this does NOT include Hunterdon county or Morris.
I believe the NWS did this for two reasons:
The National Weather Service defines a blizzard with more mentions of wind than snow as seen above. Also note that it needs to be maintained for a minimum of 3 hours. I believe eastern and southern sections, closer to the coast where winds will be higher and closer to the storm center, have the greater potential to see these conditions.
I’m in complete agreement with the above map from the National Weather Service in Mt Holly NJ. It shows less snow to the north and more to the south. A general 6-12″ for western New Jersey area with more to the south and less to the north.
The snow will not start until the pre-dawn hours on saturday morning. So by sun up on Saturday there may only be a coating to an inch or so on the ground. Saturday will be when the storm moves in and intensifies as it does so. It will be breezy as well with temperatures not getting above freezing in western New Jersey.
Today and Friday will be great days to prepare for the storm. Unfortunately I heard supermarkets are already busy and shovels and salt are selling like hot cakes on Sunday morning. This of course is to be expected for a January snow storm – especially the first one.
Look for the snow to not end until the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The winds will remain brisk if not full fledged windy so that will make cleanup all the harder.
You may have heard that eastern NJ and NYC has issued a blizzard watch. Why not here? That’s because they are closer to the coast and the winds will be higher. A blizzard does not mean more snow necessarily – it focuses more on reduced visibility from blowing and drifting snow over several hours. There is also blizzard watch in Washington DC area for the same reasons.
If you have any interests along the coast, there will be coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40-60 mph. There could be some rain or sleet mixed in at times along the shore.
I will update when I have something to share during the day today and tomorrow and throughout the storm on Saturday (provided power and internet cooperate 😉
All the computer models are in for this morning. Confidence remains high that the area will experience a moderate snow event on Saturday.
Here are some facts for this upcoming storm:
If I had to put an amount down for western New Jersey I’d say 6-12+ at this point. Less to the north and more to the south and perhaps south-west.
So I expect the grocery stores will start being busy on Thursday and should be crazy and Friday so if you need bread, eggs and milk, plan accordingly!
More updates on Thursday
The light snow that fell yesterday afternoon certainly over performed in western New Jersey. Stewartsville received about 1/4.” additional reading from other areas are listed below.
Cold weather continues today and tomorrow. It will remain at or below normal most of the week. Then our attention turns to a storm potential for Friday into Saturday. Computer weather models have been consistent in showing this storm for Friday into Saturday. The overnight models continue to show this potential. right now the storm is north of Hawaii so it still has to travel a long way. If the storm reaches its potential in our area we could receive a heavy snow. There’s a chance it could move further away and we receive only a little or it could move closer to us and we go from snow to rain. I will continue to monitor the storm potential.
Here are additional snow reports from yesterday and overnight:
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 7
hours for the weather system that has been affecting our region.
Appreciation is extended to cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters,
the general public and the media for these reports. This summary is
also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi
********************storm total snowfall********************
Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement
Delaware
...New Castle County...
New Castle County Ai 0.8 700 PM 1/17 ASOS
New Castle 0.7 420 PM 1/17 social media
Newark 0.3 400 PM 1/17 cocorahs
...Sussex County...
Delmar 2.8 234 PM 1/17 social media
Milton 0.5 635 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Maryland
...Queen Annes County...
Barclay 0.5 325 PM 1/17 social media
New Jersey
...Atlantic County...
Atlantic City Intl a 2.8 700 PM 1/17 ASOS
Estell Manor 2.5 615 PM 1/17 co-op observer
Mays Landing 2.3 600 PM 1/17 social media
Bargaintown 2.0 532 PM 1/17 social media
Absecon 1.5 550 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Burlington County...
Mount Holly WFO 0.8 700 PM 1/17 NWS office
Florence 0.8 700 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Fort Dix 0.7 532 PM 1/17 social media
Delran TWP 0.6 545 PM 1/17 NWS employee
Hainesport 0.5 515 PM 1/17 social media
Mount Laurel 0.5 358 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Cinnaminson 0.3 401 PM 1/17 social media
...Camden County...
Sicklerville 1.0 335 PM 1/17 NWS employee
Haddon Heights 0.7 550 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Lindenwold 0.4 510 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Cape May County...
Dennisville 2.2 734 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Belleplain 2.0 845 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Cape May Court House 2.0 845 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Seaville 1.8 700 PM 1/17 trained spotter
2 NW Cape May 1.5 846 PM 1/17 co-op observer
Green Creek 1.0 700 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Goshen 0.7 845 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Cumberland County...
Newport 1.1 830 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Vineland 1.0 600 PM 1/17 social media
...Gloucester County...
Washington TWP 0.6 613 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Williamstown 0.5 330 PM 1/17 amateur radio
...Hunterdon County...
Flemington 0.3 324 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Mercer County...
2 WSW Robbinsville 0.8 500 PM 1/17 cocorahs
Ewing 0.7 500 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Lawrence TWP 0.6 533 PM 1/17 social media
...Middlesex County...
Cheesequake 1.0 800 PM 1/17 trained spotter
East Brunswick 0.4 533 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Monmouth County...
Manalapan 1.0 640 PM 1/17 trained spotter
1 E Colts Neck 0.9 600 PM 1/17 cocorahs
Howell TWP 0.9 510 PM 1/17 social media
...Morris County...
2 E Randolph TWP 0.4 635 PM 1/17 cocorahs
...Ocean County...
Waretown 2.0 630 PM 1/17 social media
Forked River 1.5 700 PM 1/17 social media
brick TWP 1.0 712 PM 1/17 social media
Lakewood 1.0 715 PM 1/17 social media
Bayville 0.1 500 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Somerset County...
5 ESE Hillsborough 0.8 700 PM 1/17 cocorahs
Basking Ridge 0.6 536 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Sussex County...
Highland Lakes 0.3 500 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Warren County...
Blairstown 0.1 743 PM 1/17 social media
Stewartsville T 808 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Pennsylvania
...Berks County...
Huffs Church 0.3 356 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Bucks County...
Furlong 0.6 539 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Hilltown TWP 0.3 355 PM 1/17 NWS employee
...Delaware County...
Chadds Ford 0.5 806 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Lehigh County...
Heidelberg TWP 0.8 425 PM 1/17 social media
Lehigh Valley Intl a 0.1 700 PM 1/17 ASOS
...Montgomery County...
Wynnewood 0.4 500 PM 1/17 trained spotter
Gilbertsville 0.3 400 PM 1/17 trained spotter
...Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia Intl Ai 0.5 700 PM 1/17 ASOS
An arctic front will pass through the area today. This will bring in another shot of cold weather that will last well into next week. Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days. We could even see some flurries or snow showers at time to time with the cold air.
Then our attention turns to next weekend. The long range models have been hinting at a strong storm next weekend. They continue to show the trend today so we need to keep an eye on it. At this time it appears Saturday would be the day and snow would be involved. But its 6 days away and a lot of things can change between now and then. For now its just a heads up. It’s purely coincidental that I put up my snow stakes n the driveway today! 😉 OK it’s not a coincident. I usually put them up with the Christmas decorations but didn’t this year with all the warm weather. So now that I did put them up, that means no storm! lol
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