NWS severe weather threat for Saturday afternoon
The National Weather service along with the Storms Prediction Center has increased the threat for severe weather Saturday afternoon. The timing looks to be mid to late afternoon into the early evening. The strongest potential is south-west of most of western New Jersey but everyone should stay vigilant and keep an eye to the sky tomorrow afternoon. My schedule tomorrow is extremely busy and I may not have ample time for updates.
SPC has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of western New Jersey to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary threat will be wind, rain and possibly small hail.
There is a line of storms in western PA heading in our direction now. If any storm or showers survive, they could impact our area by late morning. Otherwise look for additional storms mid to late afternoon.
SPC thunderstorm outlook for today
Scattered showers and thundershowers moved through western New Jersey later yesterday afternoon and evening. Stewartsville recorded 0.03″ of rain.
While today’s high temperature may not hit 90 like yesterday, the increased humidity will make it feel more uncomfortable.
As you can see in the map above, there is an increased chance over yesterday of some thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. After 4 pm looks to be the starting time.
If you’re not a fan of extreme heat so early in the warm weather season good news is the weekend will feature closer to seasonable temperatures. 70’s for Saturday and 60’s for Sunday.
SPC Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening
Welcome to Summer! No it’s not officially summer yet but it sure does feel like it!
With the sudden warm temperatures comes the possibility of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Today is no different. With the sudden heating of the atmosphere is resulting in some instability that could give part of western New Jersey some descent thunderstorm potential later on this afternoon and evening. The best chances are further to the north as seen in the map above.
Friday will be a rinse and repeat of today with perhaps even stronger chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon
Severe weather threat for Tuesday
All good things must come to an end. The string of above normal temperatures for western jersey for late October will come to an end starting tomorrow. That change might arrive with some potentially severe weather. Right now the best time looks like late morning to mid day. This could extend later on to the east.
As you most of you know we are also very dry. We look to receive 3/4″-1″ of rain from this system.
The we return to normal and maybe a little below normal on Thursday as cooler weather returns to western new jersey. Out normal high temperature this time of year is 62 degrees.
Severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central New Jersey
Southeast New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of severe thunderstorms will track
southeastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a threat
of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Bridgeport CT to 35 miles west southwest of Trenton NJ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424...WW 425...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
Severe thunderstorm watch for NW PA
Granted this is NOT western New Jersey – yet – but certainly on our doorstep. It looks like today’s strongest threat of sever weather will start out in NE PA and then slide SE across portions of western NJ (mostly eastern sections).
I’ll keep an eye on this and post updates as I can
Hazy, Hot and Humid weather of Summer 2017 continues. Remember these days in the dead cold of winter 😉
Marginal risk of severe weather in western New Jersey on Thursday
As can be seen in the map above by the Storm Prediction Center, the best chances of severe weather will be to our north and west. As far as timing the best chances are this evening into the night. Some could linger into Friday morning.
The official definition of a heat wave in our park of the country is three consecutive days of high temperatures of 90 or above. We haven’t hit that yet in Stewartsville but we’ve been oh so close:
15th: 85
16th: 86
17th: 89
18th: 89
19th: 92
20th: 87+
Today, the 20th still isn’t over and I expect us to hit 90 or above so we will be 2/3rds of the way there. If we were to slightly modify the definition to be 89 or above we would already be there. Change it a few more degrees to 85+ and it’s a slam dunk.
Parts of western New Jersey picked up a good amount of rain yesterday. Stewartsville received 0.83 from the late afternoon thunderstorms and an additional 0.10″ overnight.
Severe weather threat stays south of western New Jersey on Friday
While Friday will be cooler than the last few days, the humidity will still be very uncomfortable. The best chances for any severe weather look to be to the south of western New Jersey – but not that far away. So keep an eye to the sky.
More moderate rain heading to western New Jersey
Good news is nicer weather returns for the weekend. Then look for another warm/hot/humid spell next week. It is summer after all!
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