Slight Risk of Severe Weather Later Today

08. August 2018 · Comments Off on Slight Risk of Severe Weather Later Today · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags: , ,

SPC shows marginal risk of severe weather today

The Storm Prediction Center has our entire area in a marginal risk for severe weather later today and tonight. A weak cold front will be approaching and moving through the area later today and tonight. This will produce some scattered thunderstorms later today and tonight. At this time they don’t look to be very strong or in a squall line. Instead they look scattered. But keep in mind any thunderstorm can turn strong and deadly quickly. The old adage “when thunder roars, head indoors” is good advice.

We did have another heat wave as of yesterday. Tuesday was our third day in a row of high temperatures hitting 90 or better. Today will be close but we may stay just shy of the 90 degree mark. Even if the temperature doesn’t hit 90 the humidity will certainly make it feel that warm if not warmer.

5 Day NWS forecast

After today we should only see high temperatures in the 80’s for at least the next 5 days. Looking longer range temperatures should increase again somewhat later next week perhaps.

Strong Gusty Storm South Areas Last Night

08. August 2018 · Comments Off on Strong Gusty Storm South Areas Last Night · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:

Thunderstorm damage on Warren Glenn Rd evening of August 7, 2018. Photo by DAVE DABOUR

As small but strong gusty thunderstorm moved across southern areas of western New Jersey last evening. Stewartsville picked up almost 2/3″ of rain and a wind gust to 38 mph.

Thunderstorm damage on Warren Glenn Rd evenining of August 7, 2018. Photo by DAVE DABOUR

There were numerous small branches and leaves down in the area. Not too far away was a transformer fire on a utility pole due to the storm.

I didn’t get to experience the storm in person as I was just north of the storm photographing a family. We heard the thunder and got to see some impressive cloud formations! There was even a nice rainbow after the storm that was a complete arc across the sky.

Threat for Severe Weather Later Today

01. August 2018 · Comments Off on Threat for Severe Weather Later Today · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags: , ,

Threat for severe weather later today

There continues to be a slight risk of severe weather later today. It will not be an all day rain but rather spotty here and there. If the weather looks threatening, head indoors!

Increasing Rain and Humidity On the Way

31. July 2018 · Comments Off on Increasing Rain and Humidity On the Way · Categories: flood watch, thunderstorms · Tags: ,

SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday

I’ve mentioned in previous posts that we will be seeing more humidity and rain this week. So far it has held off. There were some sprinkles yesterday with some heavier rain in isolated sports to out south.

Wednesday looks to increase the chances of more rain and humidity. In the map above, the SPC has place EPA and extreme western New Jersey in a slight risk for severe weather. Some of the computer models are suggesting a line of thunderstorms tomorrow evening around 9 pm or so. We’ll keep an eye on these storms tomorrow.

Excessive rain outlook for Wednesday

As seen in the above map, there is a slight chance of rainfall reaching flash flood guidance Wednesday in central PA – exactly the place that doesn’t need more rain!

Excessive rain outlook for Thursday

Unfortunately it doesn’t get any better on Thursday. As seen in the map above that area shifts closer and even touches western New Jersey

1-5 day rain total

1-3 day rain total

As seen in the above maps, we have the potential to receive 1 to perhaps 3″ of rain in the next several days. We can thank the moist pattern we are once again in bringing humid air from the tropics right into out own backyeards

Rain Let’s Up, For Now

26. July 2018 · Comments Off on Rain Let’s Up, For Now · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags: ,

SPC severe weather outlook for Friday

First off the good news is the rain has let up, for now. Stewartsville in western New Jersey has received just under 4″ of rain this week. Of course this pales in comparison to central PA which received in some sports 11″ of rain and has severe flooding going on still.

Today will feature most areas being dry but a scattered shower can’t be ruled out. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow afternoon. This could result in some thunderstorms Friday afternoon. As a result the SPC has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon. The greatest threat appears to be 3 pm on.

WPC rain forecast for next Tue thru Thu

After that the weekend actually looks good and mostly rain free! But don’t put away the umbrella just yet. The weather will remain warm and humid and rain looks to return to our area next week. The above map is a forecast for Tuesday morning into Thursday morning next week. Unfortunately one of the bulls-eye is in PA where they have flooding going on now. For their sake let’s hope this doesn’t verify or moves to a different area.

Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon

17. July 2018 · Comments Off on Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:

SPC has most of northern NJ is slight risk

We need to keep an eye to the sky this afternoon for some stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of northern New Jersey in a slight risk of seeing some severe weather today. the greatest threats will be strong winds, small hail and heavy downpours.

Radar early Tuesday morning

As of early this morning there is some rain and thunderstorms in western PA and slowly heading in our direction via a NE movement.

Walking out the door this morning feels like you’re vacationing at a NJ shore house. The only problem is we are far inland! It is very warm and humid this morning. Relief is on the way via a cold front that will move through tonight. The result, after some story weather, will be delightful and comfortable Wednesday through Friday.

Enhanced Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon

15. May 2018 · Comments Off on Enhanced Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:

Enhanced severe weather threat for this afternoon

It’s not very often that the Storms Prediction Center makes so many upgrades in such a short period of time. There is now a moderate (4 out of 5) chance of northern areas seeing severe weather this afternoon and an enhanced (3 out of 5) for everyone else.

Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon

15. May 2018 · Comments Off on Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:

SPC severe weather threat for later this afternoon

For northern sections of western New Jersey the threat for severe weather has increased to an enhanced risk as seen on the map above. The timing looks to be from 3 pm- 6 pm. The greatest impacts are heavy rain, win and hail.

Severe Weather Threat For Tuesday Afternoon

14. May 2018 · Comments Off on Severe Weather Threat For Tuesday Afternoon · Categories: spring, thunderstorms · Tags:

SPC severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon

Lately we seem to be in a pattern of nice weather one day followed by severe weather the next. Same thing will happen today and tomorrow. As you can see in the above map, all of western New Jersey is in a slight risk of seeing some severe weather. The timing for this looks to be from 3 pm to evening time. The line of storm will be coming in from the NW and moving SE. And Tuesday will be even warmer and much more humid than today which will help fuel these storms.

Saturday’s storms missed most of western New Jersey and slide to our south. Let’s see if the same thing happens tomorrow. Regardless we should never let our guard down and keep a weather eye to the sky!

Severe Weather Potential Shifts South

12. May 2018 · Comments Off on Severe Weather Potential Shifts South · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags: , ,

SPC severe weather threat for later on this afternoon

The severe weather threat has shifted further south and west for later on today. This takes most of western New Jersey  out of the severe weather threat except for southern and western most sections. This is due to the warm front not making it as far north as originally anticipated. If you haven’t been outside yet this morning it’s not only wet but much cooler with temperatures around 50. It now looks like we will not get much higher than the 60’s today. In fact northern areas could struggle to get to 60.

Further to the south by Philly they will get to 80 with warm and muggy temperatures. This disparity in temperature will fuel the potential for severe weather closer to them later on today as seen in the above map.

After this morning’s rain passes, there could be a break in the rain with only showers at times until later this afternoon. There could even be some breaks in the overcast but mostly cloudy conditions are expected today.

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